Showing papers by "Richard A. Easterlin published in 1988"
TL;DR: In this paper, Granger-Sims causality tests were applied to monthly age-specific data to identify the effective lag between business cycles and fertility in the United States, showing that the relationship is one of simple causality.
Abstract: When applied to monthly age specific data, Granger-Sims causality tests provide a useful technique for identifying the effective lag between business cycles and fertility in the United States. Male and female monthly age specific unemployment rates are used as a proxy for the business cycle, and test results are presented for first and higher order birth rates, as well as total age-specific monthly fertility rates. The period is subdivided (January 1958 – May 1973 and June 1973 – December 1984) in order to identify possible trends. Four results hold in all cases studied, with respect to the relationship between unemployment and fertility. (1) Noncausality is rejected in the direction from unemployment to fertility, and no ‘feedback’ effect is indicated; thus the relationship is one of simple causality. (2) In the ‘critical’ decision period from 9–16 months prior to realized fertility rates, the sign of the effect of unemployment on fertility is negative: this holds for both male and female unemployment rates. (3) There appears to have been a shortening of the effective lag between unemployment and fertility, of perhaps 2 – 3 months, between periods 1 (1959 – 1973) and 2 (1973 – 1984). (5) The strength of the (negative) relationship between unemployment and fertility appears to have increased from period 1 to period 2.
17 citations
TL;DR: A new "supply-demand" measure of family planning demand is compared with others commonly used to target prospective family planning clients and consistently explains past contraceptive use better than the others.
Abstract: A new "supply-demand" measure of family planning demand is compared with others commonly used to target prospective family planning clients. In analyses of data from six cross-sectional surveys the new measure consistently explains past contraceptive use better than the others. Time series analysis for two countries yields similar results. Family planning program officials may wish to consider exploring the use of this measure to target prospective clients.
12 citations
01 Jan 1988
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the impact of modernization on fertility and the mechanisms through which it operates in Egypt and identified theoretically and empirically the way in which economic and social modernization in Egypt has shaped the motivation for fertility control.
Abstract: This final chapter identifies theoretically and empirically the way in which economic and social modernization in Egypt has shaped the motivation for fertility control in Egypts fertility transition. The dataset from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey makes possible a much fuller exploration of the impact of modernization on fertility and the mechanisms through which it operates than is usually possible. The measures of modernization investigated are family income education occupation rural-urban residence husbands employment status wifes work experience before and after marriage wifes fathers education and rural-urban place of birth. In addition a number of variables taken to reflect cultural influences are included such as blood relationship of spouses residence in Lower versus Upper Egypt and religion. Despite the large number of independent variables the results are generally consistent with those obtained in more limited inquiries. Modernization variables play a much more important role in explaining differences in demographic behavior than cultural variables and among the modernization variables education is by far the most important. Indeed the more refined form in which the education variable is used in the present analysis compared with an initial one has the effect of reducing or eliminating effects previously attributed to other variables such as occupation.
3 citations
01 Jan 1988
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the impact of modernization on fertility and the mechanisms through which it operates using data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey and found that education plays a much more important role in explaining differences in demographic behavior than cultural variables.
Abstract: This paper explores the impact of modernization on fertility and the mechanisms through which it operates using data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey. Among the measures of modernization investigated here are family income education occupation rural-urban residence husbands employment status wifes work experience before and after marriage wifes fathers education and rural-urban place of birth. In addition a number of variables taken to reflect cultural influences are included such as blood relationship of spouses residence in Lower versus Upper Egypt and religion. Despite the large number of independent variables the results are generally consistent with those obtained in more limited inquiries. Modernization variables play a much more important role in explaining differences in demographic behavior than cultural variables. Among the modernization variables education is by far the most important. The income variable added surprisingly little to the analysis. Regional differences in demographic behavior reflect chiefly the influence of modernization variables. The policy analysis suggests that an education policy focusing on commensurate expansion of literacy for both sexes is most compatible with reducing fertility.
2 citations