Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

/pdf/bounding-the-role-of-black-carbon-in-the-climate-system-a-1fc3novd9r.pdf

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) is a two-wavelength polarization lidar that performs global profiling of aerosols and clouds in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. CALIOP is the primary instrument on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite, which has flown in formation with the NASA A-train constellation of satellites since May 2006. The global, multiyear dataset obtained from CALIOP provides a new view of the earth’s atmosphere and will lead to an improved understanding of the role of aerosols and clouds in the climate system. A suite of algorithms has been developed to identify aerosol and cloud layers and to retrieve a variety of optical and microphysical properties. CALIOP represents a significant advance over previous space lidars, and the algorithms that have been developed have many innovative aspects to take advantage of its capabilities. This paper provides a brief overview of the CALIPSO mission, the CA...

Overview of the CALIPSO Mission and CALIOP Data Processing Algorithms

[i] An inventory of air pollutant emissions in Asia in the year 2000 is developed to support atmospheric modeling and analysis of observations taken during the TRACE-P experiment funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the ACE-Asia experiment funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources, including biomass burning, in 64 regions of Asia. We estimate total Asian emissions as follows: 34.3 Tg SO 2 , 26.8 Tg NO x , 9870 Tg CO 2 , 279 Tg CO, 107 Tg CH 4 , 52.2 Tg NMVOC, 2.54 Tg black carbon (BC), 10.4 Tg organic carbon (OC), and 27.5 Tg NH 3 . In addition, NMVOC are speciated into 19 subcategories according to functional groups and reactivity. Thus we are able to identify the major source regions and types for many of the significant gaseous and particle emissions that influence pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of the TRACE-P and ACE-Asia field measurements. Emissions in China dominate the signature of pollutant concentrations in this region, so special emphasis has been placed on the development of emission estimates for China. China's emissions are determined to be as follows: 20.4 Tg SO 2 , 11.4 Tg NO x , 3820 Tg CO 2 , 116 Tg CO, 38.4 Tg CH 4 , 17.4 Tg NMVOC, 1.05 Tg BC, 3.4 Tg OC, and 13.6 Tg NH 3 . Emissions are gridded at a variety of spatial resolutions from 1° × 1° to 30 s x 30 s, using the exact locations of large point sources and surrogate GIS distributions of urban and rural population, road networks, landcover, ship lanes, etc. The gridded emission estimates have been used as inputs to atmospheric simulation models and have proven to be generally robust in comparison with field observations, though there is reason to think that emissions of CO and possibly BC may be underestimated. Monthly emission estimates for China are developed for each species to aid TRACE-P and ACE-Asia data interpretation. During the observation period of March/ April, emissions are roughly at their average values (one twelfth of annual). Uncertainties in the emission estimates, measured as 95% confidence intervals, range from a low of ±16% for SO 2 to a high of ±450% for OC.

An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000 : NASA global tropospheric experiment transport and chemical evolution over the pacific (TRACE-P): Measurements and analysis (TRACEP1)

Abstract. Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and
Earth system through direct and semi-direct effects, as well as
influencing air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of
biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather
prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations
collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines
Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol
concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth
Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the
operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth
observations at 550 nm from AERONET and MODIS to constrain aerosol fields.
Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of
aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to
observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex
campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to
account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in
the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer,
relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group
Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulfate and nitrate
aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aerosol extinction within GEOS is a
function of the mass of different aerosol species, the ambient relative
humidity, the assumed spectral optical properties, and particle size
distribution per species. The relationship between dry and ambient
extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too high within the
model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a single mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also
illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module within GEOS may be necessary.


Richard Ferrare

Papers

An evaluation of biomass burning aerosol mass, extinction, and size distribution in GEOS using observations from CAMP2Ex