We document the rise in unemployment in South Africa since the transition in 1994. We describe how changes in labour supply interacted with stagnant labour demand to produce unemployment rates that peaked between 2001 and 2003. Meanwhile, compositional changes in employment at the sectoral level widened the gap between the skill-level of the employed and the unemployed. Using nationally representative panel data, we show that stable unemployment rates mask high individual-level transition rates in labour market status. Our analysis highlights several key constraints to addressing unemployment in South Africa. We conclude that unemployment is near equilibrium levels and is unlikely to self-correct without policy intervention.

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Why Has Unemployment Risen in the New South Africa

This paper examines an issue of overwhelming importance in South Africa--unemployment and its rise. It explains the factors behind the sharp rise in unemployment in the post-apartheid period, investigates the role of labour legislation and the system of labour market governance, evaluates the impact of the government's active labour market policies, identifies the knowledge gaps about the functioning of the labour market and draws some policy prescriptions. It analyses unemployment using household surveys spanning 1995--2003 and explains the rise in unemployment by the slow growth of the economy, and thus slow growth in the demand for labour relative to the rapidly growing supply, together with labour market inflexibility. The paper argues that if unemployment is to be tackled, it is crucial to pursue a set of policies that promote South Africa's rate of economic growth to promote job-creation, and also that labour market regulations require reconsideration, giving greater weight to the concerns of employers and investors, and to the interests of the unemployed and informally employed poor who are beyond the reach of the labour institutions but can be hurt by them nevertheless. It highlights that lack of appropriate data hinders analysis of important aspects such as entry into, exit from and duration of unemployment. Finally, the paper appeals for investigation of how active labour market policies to address unemployment--such as public works programmes, skills training programmes etc., formulated largely in the absence of local evidence--have performed. Copyright 2007 The author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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Unemployment in South Africa 1995-2003: Causes, Problems and Policies

Even as African countries became increasingly indebted from 1970 to 2004, they experienced large-scale capital flight. Some of this was legitimately acquired capital fleeing economic and political uncertainties; some was illegitimately acquired wealth spirited to safer havens abroad. This paper presents new estimates of the magnitude and timing of capital flight from 40 sub-Saharan African countries and analyzes its determinants, including linkages to external borrowing. Our results confirm that sub-Saharan Africa is a net creditor to the rest of the world, in that the subcontinent’s private external assets exceed its public external liabilities: total capital flight amounted to $420 billion (in 2004 dollars), compared to the external debt of $227 billion. Econometric analysis indicates that for every dollar in external loans to Africa in this period, roughly 60 cents flowed back out as capital flight in the same year, a finding that suggests the existence of widespread “debt-fueled” capital flight. The results also show a debt-overhang effect, as increases in the debt stock spur additional capital flight in later years. In addition to policies for recovery of looted wealth and repatriation of externally held assets, we discuss the need for policies to differentiate between legitimate and “odious” debts, both to ease current burdens and to improve international financial governance in the future.

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New Estimates of Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries: Linkages with External Borrowing and Policy Options

Even as African countries became increasingly indebted, they experienced large‐scale capital flight. Some of this was legitimately acquired capital fleeing economic and political uncertainties; some was illegitimately acquired wealth spirited to safer havens abroad. This paper presents new estimates of the magnitude and timing of capital flight from 33 sub‐Saharan African countries from 1970 to 2004. We then analyze its determinants, including linkages to external borrowing. Our results confirm that sub‐Saharan Africa is a net creditor to the rest of the world, in that the subcontinent’s private external assets exceed its public external liabilities: total capital flight amounted to $443 billion (in 2004 dollars), compared to the external debt of $195 billion. Econometric analysis indicates that for every dollar in external loans to Africa in this period, roughly 60 cents flowed back out as capital flight in the same year, a finding that suggests the existence of widespread debt‐fueled capital flight. The...

Capital flight from sub‐Saharan Africa: linkages with external borrowing and policy options

This study revisits the definition of informal employment, and it investigates the puzzle of high open unemployment co-existing with relatively limited informal employment in South Africa. We estimate earnings equations using data from the September 2004 Labour Force Survey and present evidence of persistent earnings differentials not only between formal and informal employment, but also between types of informal employment. These persistent earnings differentials are suggestive of complex segmentation in the South African labour market and challenge the presentation of informal employment as an undifferentiated residual with no barriers to entry or mobility.

Revisiting informal employment and segmentation in the south african labour market

Are the unemployed in South Africa ‘pricing themselves out of the labour market;’? This paper explores this proposition through an analysis of reservation wages in Cape Town's working class district of Khayelitsha/Mitchell's Plain. It argues that reservation wages are not out of line with predicted wages. This, in turn, suggests that unemployment in the area is not attributable to job seekers having unrealistically high reservation wages.

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Unemployment and reservation wages in working-class cape town

Jubilee 2000 (SA) supports the cancellation of South African national government (and other) debt on the grounds that it is odious debt from the apartheid years. The organisation has called for foreign creditors to cancel the debt voluntarily and has threatened to call for debt repudiation if such cancellation is not forthcoming. However, unlike voluntary debt cancellation, debt repudiation would probably have serious consequences for investment and growth. Furthermore, as most government debt has accumulated after the end of apartheid, and as most is domestic and marketable, the moral argument for repudiation is problematic. Jubilee 2000 (SA) is also calling for the government pension scheme (which owns a large proportion of the domestic government debt) to be restructured. Contributions to the pension fund may be excessive (as argued by Jubilee 2000), but the case is not clear. South Africa should publish a dual set of accounts in line with how other countries report their liabilities so as not to overs...

Richard Walker

Papers

Unemployment and reservation wages in working-class cape town

'Don't owe, won't pay!': A critical analysis of the Jubilee SA position on South African government debt