This article presents some “rational-actor” models that depict the negotiation process between terrorists and government policymakers for those incidents where hostages or property are seized and demands are issued. The models account for the objectives and constraints faced by both the terrorists and the policymakers. Uncertainty is introduced through probability constraints (i.e., chance constraints) requiring a specific likelihood of some event occurring. Implications are subsequently extracted from the comparative static analysis as the models' parameters are changed. The last part of the article presents a club theory analysis concerning the sharing of transnational commando forces.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0003055400246182

A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism

The existence of uncertainty influences the investment, production and pricing decision of firms. Therefore, capacity expansion models need to take into account uncertainty. This uncertainty, may arise because of errors in the specification, statistical estimation of relationships and in the assumptions of exogenous variables. One such example is demand uncertainty. In this paper, a cautious capacity planning approach is described for solving problems in which robustness to likely errors is needed. The aim is to cast the problem in a deterministic framework and thereby avoid the complexities inherent in nonlinear stochastic formulations. We adopt a robust approach and minimize an augmented objective function that penalises the sensitivity of the objective function to various types of uncertainty. The robust or sensitivity approach is compared with Friedenfelds' equivalent deterministic demand method. Using numerical results from a large nonlinear programming capacity planning model, it is shown that as ca...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/2632535

Robust capacity planning under uncertainty

An integrated evaluation of facility location, capacity acquisition, and technology selection for designing global manufacturing strategies

Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources

Instead of creating water supply systems that fully insulate mankind from climate-imposed water deficiencies, it is possible that for municipal water systems a nonzero probability of water supply shortfall is efficient. Perfect water supply reliability, meaning no chance of future shortfall, is not optimal when water development costs are high. Designing an efficient strategy requires an assessment of consumer preferences pertaining to the reliability of water supply. Contingent valuations of both current and future shortfalls are reported. The consistency of these measures is gauged using an expected utility model. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

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Robert A Meyer

Papers

Monopoly Pricing and Capacity Choice under Uncertainty

Externalities as Commodities: Reply