https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/5/110/206.full.pdf

The american psychological association.

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism.

/pdf/the-characteristics-of-persistent-sexual-offenders-a-meta-19hgzia124.pdf

The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies.

This review compared the accuracy of various approaches to the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. On the basis of a meta-analysis of 536 findings drawn from 118 distinct samples (45,398 sexual offenders, 16 countries), empirically derived actuarial measures were more accurate than unstructured professional judgment for all outcomes (sexual, violent, or any recidivism). The accuracy of structured professional judgment was intermediate between the accuracy found for the actuarial measures and for unstructured professional judgment. The effect sizes for the actuarial measures were moderate to large by conventional standards (average d values of 0.67-0.97); however, the utility of the actuarial measures will vary according to the referral question and samples assessed. Further research should identify the psychologically meaningfully factors that contribute to risk for reoffending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

http://static99.org/pdfdocs/hansonandm-b2009riskassessment.pdf

The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: a meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies.

This meta-analytic review examined the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders by summarizing data from 43 studies (combined n = 9,454). Averaged across all studies, the sexual offence recidivism rate was lower for the treatment groups (12.3%) than the comparison groups (16.8%, 38 studies, unweighted average). A similar pattern was found for general recidivism, although the overall rates were predictably higher (treatment 27.9%, comparison 39.2%, 30 studies). Current treatments (cognitive–behavioral, k = 13; systemic, k = 2) were associated with reductions in both sexual recidivism (from 17.4 to 9.9%) and general recidivism (from 51 to 32%). Older forms of treatment (operating prior to 1980) appeared to have little effect. Future directions for improving the quality of sex offender treatment outcome evaluations are discussed.

First report of the collaborative outcome data project on the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders.

Risk assessment and treatment for sexual offenders should focus on individual characteristics associated with recidivism risk. Although it is possible to conduct risk assessments based purely on empirical correlates, the most useful evaluations also explain the source of the risk. In this review, the authors propose that the basic requirements for a psychologically meaningful risk factor are (a) a plausible rationale that the factor is a cause of sexual offending and (b) strong evidence that it predicts sexual recidivism. Based on the second of these criteria, the authors categorize potential risk factors according to the strength of the evidence for their relationship with offending. The most strongly supported variables should be emphasized in both assessment and treatment of sexual offenders. Further research is required, however, to establish causal connections between these variables and recidivism and to examine the extent to which changes in these factors leads to reductions in recidivism potential.

/pdf/assessing-risk-for-sexual-recidivism-some-proposals-on-the-4lwhpju7s2.pdf

Assessing Risk for Sexual Recidivism: Some Proposals on the Nature of Psychologically Meaningful Risk Factors:

Current practices and emerging trends in sexual abuser management: The Safer Society 2009 North American Survey.

This study examined the recidivism rates of 195 adult male sex offenders who were referred to a prison-based cognitive-behavioral treatment program. Of this sample, 56 participants completed treatment, 49 entered but did not complete treatment, and 90 refused treatment services. Although participants were not randomly assigned to treatment conditions, there were no between-group differences on participants’ pre-treatment risk for sexual recidivism as appraised on two actuarial risk measures, the RRASOR and Static-99. Over a mean follow-up period of almost 6 years, the sexual reoffense rate for the completed-treatment group was 5.4% versus 30.6% for the some-treatment and 30.0% for the no-treatment groups. Lower sexual recidivism rates were also found among those participants who received aftercare treatment and correctional supervision services in the community.

/pdf/outcome-of-a-treatment-program-for-adult-sex-offenders-from-19kxe4nq13.pdf

Outcome of a Treatment Program for Adult Sex Offenders From Prison to Community

Recidivism rates were examined for the near-exhaustive sample of 122 sex offenders placed in a rural Vermont county under correctional supervision from 1984 through 1995. Participants were at risk for an average of 62.9 months. Of this sample, 71 nonrandomized participants enrolled in a comprehensive outpatient cognitive-behavioral and relapse-prevention-based treatment program, 32 participants received less specialized mental health treatment, and the remaining 19 participants received no treatment. Pretreatment, between-group comparisons identified the no-treatment group as having more extensive criminal histories. No other statistically significant between-group differences among factors related to reoffense risk were found. At follow up, the cognitive-behavioral treatment group demonstrated a statistically significant treatment benefit. The treatment program is described.

Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment of Sex Offenders: A Treatment Comparison and Long-Term Follow-Up Study

The primary goal of intervention with sex offenders is to protect the community from further sexual aggression. As the availability of jail beds decreases, it is imperative that professionals discriminate between those offenders who must be incarcerated to protect the public and those offenders who can be supervised with reasonable safety in community settings. This article will review the research on variables related to sex offender recidivism which is a critical factor to consider in making these decisions. In addition, criteria for determining an offender's amenability to treatment will be examined and guidelines for formulating disposition plans will be outlined.

Sex-Offender Risk Assessment and Disposition Planning: A Review of Empirical and Clinical Findings

The Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) is a 16-item rating scale designed to assess dynamic risk among adult male sex offenders and degree of change at 6-month intervals during treatment. The purpose of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the SOTIPS in a construction sample of 759 adult male sex offenders who were under correctional supervision and enrolled in cognitive-behavioral community treatment in Vermont between 2001 and 2007. The scale showed acceptable interrater reliability. SOTIPS scores at 1, 7, and 13 months after participants began treatment predicted sexual, violent, and any recidivism, and return to prison at fixed 1- and 3-year follow-up periods (AUCs = .60 to .85). Combined SOTIPS and Static-99R scores predicted all recidivism types (AUCs = .67 to .89) and outperformed either instrument alone when both instruments had similar predictive power. Participants who demonstrated treatment progress, as reflected by reductions in SOTIPS scores, showed lower rates of recidivism than those who did not.

Robert J. McGrath

Papers

Current practices and emerging trends in sexual abuser management: The Safer Society 2009 North American Survey.

Outcome of a Treatment Program for Adult Sex Offenders From Prison to Community

Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment of Sex Offenders: A Treatment Comparison and Long-Term Follow-Up Study

Sex-Offender Risk Assessment and Disposition Planning: A Review of Empirical and Clinical Findings

The sex offender treatment intervention and progress scale (SOTIPS): psychometric properties and incremental predictive validity with static-99R.