Showing papers by "Robert J. Sampson published in 2003"

Life-course desisters? trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70*

Abstract: Linking recently collected data to form what is arguably the longest longitudinal study of crime to date, this paper examines trajectories of offending over the life course of delinquent boys followed from ages 7 to 70. We assess whether there is a distinct offender group whose rates of crime remain stable with increasing age, and whether individual differences, childhood characteristics, and family background can foretell long-term trajectories of offending. On both counts, our results come back negative. Crime declines with age sooner or later for all offender groups, whether identified prospectively according to a multitude of childhood and adolescent risk factors, or retrospectively based on latent-class models of trajectories. We conclude that desistance processes are at work even among active offenders and predicted life-course persisters, and that childhood prognoses account poorly for long-term trajectories of offending.

The Neighborhood Context of Well-Being

Abstract: Health-related problems are strongly associated with the social characteristics of communities and neighborhoods. We need to treat community contexts as important units of analysis in their own right, which in turn calls for new measurement strategies as well as theoretical frameworks that do not simply treat the neighborhood as a "trait" of the individual. Recent findings from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods support this thesis. Two major themes merit special attention: (1) the importance of collective efficacy for understanding health disparities in the modern city; and (2) the salience of spatial dynamics that go beyond the confines of local neighborhoods. Further efforts to explain the causes of variation in collective processes associated with healthy communities may provide innovative opportunities for preventive intervention.

A Multivariate, Multilevel Rasch Model with Application to Self–Reported Criminal Behavior

Abstract: In studying correlates of social behavior, attitudes, and beliefs, a measurement model is required to combine information across a large number of item responses. Multiple constructs are often of interest, and covariates are often multilevel (e.g., measured at the person and neighborhood level). Some item-level missing data can be expected. This paper proposes a multivariate, multilevel Rasch model with random effects for these purposes and illustrates its application to self-reports of criminal behavior. Under assumptions of conditional independence and additivity, the approach enables the investigator to calibrate the items and persons on an interval scale, assess reliability at the person and neighborhood levels, study the correlations among crime types at each level, assess the proportion of variation in each crime type that lies at each level, incorporate covariates at each level, and accommodate data missing at random. Using data on 20 item responses from 2842 adolescents ages 9 to 18 nested within ...

Desistance from Crime over the Life Course

Abstract: There is no shortage of explanations in the field of criminology for the onset of criminal behavior, which is typically assumed to occur in childhood or early adolescence. What is not known with much certainty is why some offenders stop committing crimes when they do, while others continue over large portions of the life course. What accounts for stability and change in patterns of criminal offending over time? Unfortunately, the longitudinal studies needed to answer this central question are virtually non-existent. Most criminological research consists of cross-sectional “snapshots” or relatively short-term panel studies of offending. Long-term studies that follow the same individuals over time are as rare as they are difficult to carry out.