Series Preface * Preface to the Third Edition * 1 Linear Systems * 2 Nonlinear Systems: Local Theory * 3 Nonlinear Systems: Global Theory * 4 Nonlinear Systems: Bifurcation Theory * References * Index

/pdf/differential-equations-and-dynamical-systems-3chsjx2k45.pdf

Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems

Importance Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached a pandemic level. Coronaviruses are known to affect the cardiovascular system. We review the basics of coronaviruses, with a focus on COVID-19, along with their effects on the cardiovascular system. Observations Coronavirus disease 2019 can cause a viral pneumonia with additional extrapulmonary manifestations and complications. A large proportion of patients have underlying cardiovascular disease and/or cardiac risk factors. Factors associated with mortality include male sex, advanced age, and presence of comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, and cerebrovascular diseases. Acute cardiac injury determined by elevated high-sensitivity troponin levels is commonly observed in severe cases and is strongly associated with mortality. Acute respiratory distress syndrome is also strongly associated with mortality. Conclusions and Relevance Coronavirus disease 2019 is associated with a high inflammatory burden that can induce vascular inflammation, myocarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias. Extensive efforts are underway to find specific vaccines and antivirals against SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, cardiovascular risk factors and conditions should be judiciously controlled per evidence-based guidelines.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/articlepdf/2763846/jamacardiology_madjid_2020_rv_200002.pdf

Potential Effects of Coronaviruses on the Cardiovascular System: A Review.

eMedicine创建于1996年，由近万名临床医师作为作者或编辑参与此临床医学知识库的建设，其中编辑均是来自美国哈佛、耶鲁、斯坦福、芝加哥、德克萨斯、加州大学等各分校医学院的教授或副教授。

eMedicine

Mathematical models of transmission have become invaluable management tools in planning for the control of emerging infectious diseases. A key variable in such models is the reproductive number R. For new emerging infectious diseases, the value of the reproductive number can only be inferred indirectly from the observed exponential epidemic growth rate r. Such inference is ambiguous as several different equations exist that relate the reproductive number to the growth rate, and it is unclear which of these equations might apply to a new infection. Here, we show that these different equations differ only with respect to their assumed shape of the generation interval distribution. Therefore, the shape of the generation interval distribution determines which equation is appropriate for inferring the reproductive number from the observed growth rate. We show that by assuming all generation intervals to be equal to the mean, we obtain an upper bound to the range of possible values that the reproductive number may attain for a given growth rate. Furthermore, we show that by taking the generation interval distribution equal to the observed distribution, it is possible to obtain an empirical estimate of the reproductive number.

/pdf/how-generation-intervals-shape-the-relationship-between-3fkay9cy62.pdf

How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers.

생체의 모델링과 Simulation

National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution

Recent mathematical modelling has advocated for rapid “test-and-treat” programs for HIV in the developing world, where HIV-positive individuals are identified and immediately begin a course of antiretroviral treatment, regardless of the length of time they have been infected. However, the foundations of this modelling ignored the effects of drug resistance on the epidemic. It also disregarded the heterogeneity of behaviour changes that may occur, as a result of education that some individuals may receive upon testing and treatment. We formulate an HIV/AIDS model to theoretically investigate how testing, educating HIV-positive cases, treatment, and drug resistance affect the HIV epidemic. We consider a variety of circumstances: both when education is included and not included, when testing and treatment are linked or are separate, when education is only partly effective, and when treatment leads to drug resistance. We show that education, if it is properly harnessed, can be a force strong enough to overcome the effects of antiretroviral drug resistance; however, in the absence of education, “test and treat” is likely to make the epidemic worse.

/pdf/adding-education-to-test-and-treat-can-we-overcome-drug-5gmrrobaxp.pdf

Adding Education to “Test and Treat”: Can We Overcome Drug Resistance?

A three month study of the bronchodilator effects of aerosolized fenoterol and isoproterenol.

Dynamics of a non-smooth epidemic model with three thresholds

Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne disease, primarly found in West Africa, that is transmitted to humans and domestic livestock. Its similarities to the West Nile virus suggest that establishment in the developed world may be possible. Rift Valley fever has the potential to invade North America, where seasons play a role in disease persistence. The values for the basic reproductive number show that, in order to eradicate the disease, the survival time of mosquitoes must decrease below 8.67 days. Mechanisms such as aggressive spraying that decreases the mosquito population can contain an outbreak. Otherwise, Rift Valley fever is likely to establish itself as a recurring seasonal outbreak. Rift Valley fever poses a potential threat to North America that would require aggressive interventions in order to prevent a recurring seasonal outbreak.

Robert J. Smith

Papers

National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution

Adding Education to “Test and Treat”: Can We Overcome Drug Resistance?

A three month study of the bronchodilator effects of aerosolized fenoterol and isoproterenol.

Dynamics of a non-smooth epidemic model with three thresholds

Multiseason transmission for Rift Valley fever in North America