Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy

tudies of the effects of climate change on forestshave focused on the ability of species to tolerate tem-perature and moisture changes and to disperse,but they haveignored the effects of disturbances caused by climate change(e.g.,Ojima et al.1991).Yet modeling studies indicate the im-portance of climate effects on disturbance regimes (He et al.1999). Local, regional, and global changes in temperatureand precipitation can influence the occurrence, timing, fre-quency,duration,extent,and intensity of disturbances (Baker1995, Turner et al. 1998). Because trees can survive fromdecades to centuries and take years to become established,climate-change impacts are expressed in forests, in part,through alterations in disturbance regimes (Franklin et al.1992, Dale et al. 2000).Disturbances,both human-induced and natural,shape for-est systems by influencing their composition,structure,andfunctional processes.Indeed,the forests of the United Statesare molded by their land-use and disturbance history.Withinthe United States,natural disturbances having the greatest ef-fects on forests include fire,drought,introduced species,in-sect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, icestorms, and landslides (Figure 1). Each disturbance affectsforests differently. Some cause large-scale tree mortality,whereas others affect community structure and organizationwithout causing massive mortality (e.g., ground fires). For-est disturbances influence how much carbon is stored intrees or dead wood. All these natural disturbances interactwith human-induced effects on the environment,such as airpollution and land-use change resulting from resource ex-traction, agriculture, urban and suburban expansion, andrecreation.Some disturbances can be functions of both nat-ural and human conditions (e.g., forest fire ignition andspread) (Figure 2).

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Climate Change and Forest Disturbances

The goal of this article is to revise several aspects of the well-known classification of landslides, developed by Varnes (1978). The primary recommendation is to modify the definition of landslide-forming materials, to provide compatibility with accepted geotechnical and geological terminology of rocks and soils. Other, less important modifications of the classification system are suggested, resulting from recent developments of the landslide science. The modified Varnes classification of landslides has 32 landslide types, each of which is backed by a formal definition. The definitions should facilitate backward compatibility of the system as well as possible translation to other languages. Complex landslides are not included as a separate category type, but composite types can be constructed by the user of the classification by combining two or more type names, if advantageous.

The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update

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Landslide inventory maps: New tools for an old problem

This paper deals with several aspects of the assessment of hazard and risk of landsliding. In recent years the interest in this topic has increased greatly and there are many technical papers dealing with this subject in the literature. This article presents a summary review and a classification of the main approaches that have been developed world-wide. The first step is the subdivision between qualitative and quantitative methods. The first group is mainly based on the site-specific experience of experts with the susceptibility/hazard determined directly in the field or by combining different index maps. The approaches of the second group are formally more rigorous. It is possible to distinguish between statistical analyses (bivariate or multivariate) and deterministic methods that involve the analysis of specific sites or slopes based on geo-engineering models. Such analyses can be deterministic or probabilistic. Among the quantitative methods discussed is the Neural Networks approach which has only recently been applied to engineering geology problems. Finally several considerations concerning the concept of acceptable risk and risk management are presented.

Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives

Of the numerous kinds of dams that form by natural processes, dams formed from landslides, glacial ice, and late-neoglacial moraines present the greatest threat to people and property. Landslide dams form in a wide range of physiographic settings. The most common types of mass movements that form landslide dams are rock and debris avalanches; rock and soil slumps and slides; and mud, debris, and earth flows. The most common initiation mechanisms for dam-forming landslides are excessive rainfall and snowmelt and earthquakes.

Landslide dams can be classified into six categories based on their relation with the valley floor. Type I dams (11% of 184 landslide dams from around the world that we were able to classify) do not reach from one valley side to the other. Type II dams (44%) span the entire valley floor, in some cases depositing material high on opposite valley sides. Type III dams (41%) move considerable distances both upstream and downstream from the landslide failure. Type IV dams (<1%) are rare and involve the contemporaneous failure of material from both sides of a valley. Type V dams (<1%) also are rare and are created when a single landslide sends multiple tongues of debris into a valley and forms two or more landslide dams in the same reach of river. Type VI dams (3%) involve one or more failure surfaces that extend under the stream or valley and emerge on the opposite valley side.

Many landslide dams fail shortly after formation. In our sample of 73 documented landslide-dam failures, 27% of the landslide dams failed less than 1 day after formation, and about 50% failed within 10 days. Over-topping is by far the most common cause of failure. The timing of failure and the magnitude of the resulting floods are controlled by dam size and geometry; material characteristics of the blockage; rate of inflow to the impoundment; size and depth of the impoundment; bedrock control of flow; and engineering controls such as artificial spill-ways, diversions, tunnels, and planned breaching by blasting or conventional excavation.

Glacial-ice dams can produce at least nine kinds of ice-dammed lakes. The most dangerous are lakes formed in main valleys dammed by tributary glaciers. Failure can occur by erosion of a drainage tunnel under or through the ice dam or by a channel over the ice dam. Cold polar-ice dams generally drain supraglacially or marginally by downmelting of an outlet channel. Warmer, temperate-ice dams tend to fail by sudden englacial or subglacial breaching and drainage.

Late-neoglacial moraine-dammed lakes are located in steep mountain areas affected by the advances and retreats of valley glaciers in the last several centuries. These late-neoglacial dams pose hazards because (1) they are sufficiently young that vegetation has not stabilized their slopes, (2) many dam faces are steeper than the angle of repose, (3) these dams and lakes are immediately downslope from steep crevassed glaciers and near-vertical rock slopes, and (4) downstream from these dams are steep canyons with easily erodible materials that can be incorporated in the flow and increase flood peaks. The most common reported failure mechanism is overtopping and breaching by a wave or series of waves in the lake generated by icefalls, rockfalls, or snow or rock avalanches. Melting of ice cores or frozen ground and piping and seepage are other possible failure mechanisms.

Natural dams may cause upstream flooding as the lake rises and downstream flooding as a result of failure of the dam. Although data are few, for the same potential energy at the dam site, ownstream flood peaks from the failure of glacier-ice dams are smaller than those from landslide, moraine, and structed earth-fill and rock-fill dam failures. Moraine-dam failures appear to produce some of the largest downstream flood peaks for potential energy at the dam site greater than 1011-1012 joules. Differences in flood peaks natural-dam failures appear to be controlled by dam characteristics and failure mechanisms.

The formation and failure of natural dams

Landslides : investigation and mitigation

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Economic losses and casualties due to landslides are greater than commonly recognized. Annual losses in the United States, Japan, Italy, and India have been estimated at $1 billion or more each. Only scattered and incomplete information is available for many countries known to have serious landslide problems; examples include Indonesia, China, the Soviet Union, Nepal, and some South American countries. During the period 1971–74, nearly 600 people per year were killed by landslides worldwide; about 90 percent of these deaths occurred in the Circum-Pacific region. From 1967–82, 150 people per year died in Japan as a result of slope failures. In the United States, the number of landslide-related fatalities per year exceeds 25.

Japan leads other nations in development of comprehensive programs to reduce economic losses and fatalities due to landslides. The United States, through the work of the Committee on Ground Failure Hazards of the National Research Council, recently has proposed a national landslide hazard reduction program. The National Research Council recommendations include research on (1) landslide identification and mapping, (2) initiation and mechanics of transport, and (3) innovative control techniques. In many countries, socioeconomic information on landslides should be assembled to provide a basis for assigning research priorities to problems of greatest potential benefit.

Economic Losses and Fatalities Due to Landslides

This data compilation consists of dBase IV 1 data files of the location, date, triggering mechanism, kind, size, failure time and mechanism, breach dimensions, subsequent controls, materials, and references for 463 historical landslide dams and associated natural reservoirs that have been recorded throughout the World: · INTRODUCTION The data base presented in this report is a compilation of information on the characteristics of 463 landslide dams from around the World. It forms a basis on which to assess potential threats from existing landslide dams, or newly-formed landslide dams. The data base includes only landslide dams that have formed in historical times that is, those formed during times when humans were able to record their occurrence, and the information transferred through various means of written and/or oral documentation. There have been far more prehistoric landslide dams about which relatively little is known. None of these is included in this data base. The focus on historical landslide dams allows insights into this natural process that will aid in understanding their role as a significant geologic process in recent Earth history. Thousands of landslide dams have formed all over the world during recorded history. This data base is not comprehensive nor exhaustive. It does, however, include the majority of historical landslide dams whose formation was recorded and for which appropriate documentation is available. It is frequently impossible to give the dimensions·of old dams or their impounded lakes with any certainty, and published data often differ from one source to another. Wherever possible the dimensions of the dams and lakes were field checked, but otherwise it has been necessary to use judgement in assessing which figures to quote. There is still room for correction or interpretation of available data, and the nature of the data base is to allow for necessary corrections. 1 The use of brand or product names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Robert L. Schuster

Papers

The formation and failure of natural dams

Landslides : investigation and mitigation

The formation and failure of natural dams

Economic Losses and Fatalities Due to Landslides

Documented historical landslide dams from around the world