Showing papers by "Roland Rathelot published in 2006"
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the consequences of demographic changes for the labour market using two approaches: WS-PS models and Phillips curve models. And they find that favorable effects can be expected in the short run However, they are likely to be of a relatively small importance and transitory.
Abstract: Declining natality and mortality are reshaping demographic patterns in most industrialized countries We investigate the case of France where, after a few decades of sustained growth, active population is likely to stop growing and could eventually start decreasing This will coincide with a boom for the retired population The purpose of this paper is to examine the consequences of both phenomena for the labour market We tackle the issue using two approaches: WS-PS models and Phillips curve models Effects may be short or long-run; they may stem directly from changes in labour supply or from changes in contributions required to finance pensions In this study, we bring them altogether using the macroeconometric model Mesange We find that favorable effects can be expected in the short run However, they are likely to be of a relatively small importance and transitory In the medium and long run, the WS-PS framework suggests that increases in taxes induced by ageing could lead to more unemployment This long run effect vanishes under the Phillips specification On the whole, the final effect upon unemployment depends on agents' bargaining preferences during wage negotiations: the further from labor cost they negotiate (thus the closer to net income), the higher the risk that demographic change ultimately leads to more unemployment
58 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a Poisson model to explain the number of firm creations observed in a given municipality in the given year and show that there exists some unobserved attractivity factors correlated with the level of local taxes.
Abstract: Determinants of plant locations are known to be multiple. Locations of partners and competitors are crucial, as well as the territory's local characteristics. Some local characteristics can be natural. Others, like local taxes, reflect local agents' decisions. To what extent are local taxes taken into consideration during the plant location process? We build a Poisson model to explain the number of firm creations observed in a given municipality in a given year. Correlations and first results tend to show that there exists some unobserved attractivity factors correlated with the level of local taxes. To deal with endogeneity, we present an approach close to the Regression Discontinuity Design. Finally, we find that, everything else being equal, higher local taxes actually deter firms from investing in a given zone.
58 citations