25. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. By D. B. Rubin. ISBN 0 471 08705 X. Wiley, Chichester, 1987. 258 pp. £30.25.

Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys

In this landmark book, Scott Page redefines the way we understand ourselves in relation to one another. The Difference is about how we think in groups--and how our collective wisdom exceeds the sum of its parts. Why can teams of people find better solutions than brilliant individuals working alone? And why are the best group decisions and predictions those that draw upon the very qualities that make each of us unique? The answers lie in diversity--not what we look like outside, but what we look like within, our distinct tools and abilities. The Difference reveals that progress and innovation may depend less on lone thinkers with enormous IQs than on diverse people working together and capitalizing on their individuality. Page shows how groups that display a range of perspectives outperform groups of like-minded experts. Diversity yields superior outcomes, and Page proves it using his own cutting-edge research. Moving beyond the politics that cloud standard debates about diversity, he explains why difference beats out homogeneity, whether you're talking about citizens in a democracy or scientists in the laboratory. He examines practical ways to apply diversity's logic to a host of problems, and along the way offers fascinating and surprising examples, from the redesign of the Chicago "El" to the truth about where we store our ketchup. Page changes the way we understand diversity--how to harness its untapped potential, how to understand and avoid its traps, and how we can leverage our differences for the benefit of all.

Prologue to The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies

Competition is a defining element of democracy. One of the most noteworthy events over the last quarter-century in U.S. politics is the change in the nature of elite party competition: The parties have become increasingly polarized. Scholars and pundits actively debate how these elite patterns influence polarization among the public (e.g., have citizens also become more ideologically polarized?). Yet, few have addressed what we see as perhaps more fundamental questions: Has elite polarization altered the way citizens arrive at their policy opinions in the first place and, if so, in what ways? We address these questions with a theory and two survey experiments (on the issues of drilling and immigration). We find stark evidence that polarized environments fundamentally change how citizens make decisions. Specifically, polarization intensifies the impact of party endorsements on opinions, decreases the impact of substantive information and, perhaps ironically, stimulates greater confidence in those—less substantively grounded—opinions. We discuss the implications for public opinion formation and the nature of democratic competition.

How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation (WP-12-14)

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fpalgrave.ap.5500015.pdf

The Macro Polity

Global Capital, Political Institutions, and Policy Change in Developed Welfare States

Many policy analyses on COVID-19 have been focusing on what kind of policies are implemented to contain the spread of COVID-19 What seems equally important to explore are the social and political consequences of the confinement policies Does the public support strict confinement policies? What are the social, political, and psychological consequences of the confinement policies? The question of how legitimate a policy is among the public is at the core of democratic theory Its relevance also stems from the expected consequences of public support on behavior: The more someone supports a policy, the more someone is likely to follow the policy even if the policy is not strictly enforced In this paper, we will focus on Germany, briefly summarize the main policies during the first 6 weeks of confinement and then explore political attitudes, risk perceptions, and the social consequences of the lockdown

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/epa2.1091

COVID-19 policies in Germany and their social, political, and psychological consequences

Do parties learn from or emulate parties in other political systems? This research develops the argument that parties are more likely to employ the heuristic of learning from and emulating foreign successful (incumbent) parties. Spatial-econometric analyses of parties’ election policies from several established democracies robustly confirm that political parties respond to left-right policy positions of foreign political parties that have recently governed. By showing that parties respond to these foreign incumbent parties, this work has significant implications for our understanding of party competition. Furthermore, we contribute to the literature on public policy diffusion, as we suggest that political parties are important vehicles through which public policies diffuse.

/pdf/party-policy-diffusion-2hafdlhew4.pdf

Party Policy Diffusion

BACKGROUND
During the COVID-19 pandemic, one way to reduce further transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 is the wide-spread use of contact-tracing apps. Such apps keep track of proximity contacts and warn contacts of cases that were tested positive for an infection.


OBJECTIVE
We analyze potential barriers to the large-scale adoption of the official contact-tracing app that was introduced in Germany on June 16, 2020.


METHODS
Survey data were collected from 3,276 adults during the week the app was introduced using an offline-recruited probability-based online panel of the general adult population in Germany.


RESULTS
We estimate that 81% of the population aged 18-77 possess the devices and ability to install the official app and 35% are also willing to install and use it. Potential spreaders show high access (92%) and ability (91%) but low willingness (31%) of correct app adoption, whereas for vulnerable groups the main barrier is access (62%).


CONCLUSIONS
The findings suggest a pessimistic view on the effectiveness of app-based contact-tracing to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We recommend targeting information campaigns at groups with a high potential to spread the virus but unwilling to install and correctly use the app, in particular men and those aged between 30 and 59. In addition, vulnerable groups, in particular older individuals and those in lower-income households, may be provided with equipment and support to overcome their barriers to app adoption.


CLINICALTRIAL

Barriers to the Large-Scale Adoption of the COVID-19 Contact-Tracing App in Germany

Die Corona-Pandemie verandert das Leben und den Alltag der Deutschen. In diesem Schwerpunktbericht der Mannheimer Corona-Studie richten wir den Blick auf die Arbeitswelt und darauf wie die Kinder in Deutschland betreut werden. Welche Auswirkungen auf Beruf und Erwerbstatigkeit sehen wir rund drei Wochen nachdem die ersten Masnahmen zur Pandemiebekampfung eingefuhrt wurden? Und wie gelingt es den Menschen in Deutschland neben der Arbeit die Betreuung ihrer Kinder zu organisieren wenn Kindertagesstatten und Schulen geschlossen sind? Zur Beantwortung dieser Fragen stellen wir die Ergebnisse der taglich durchgefuhrten Erhebung vom 20. Marz bis einschlieslich 2. April 2020 vor. Wir zeigen, wer nach wie vor beim Arbeitgeber vor Ort arbeitet, wer im Home-Office und wer in Kurzarbeit. Wer ist von Freistellung oder sogar Arbeitslosigkeit betroffen? Insbesondere untersuchen wir, welche soziale Gruppen - also beispielsweise Personen mit wenig Bildung oder niedrigem Einkommen - von den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Krise betroffen sind. In Bezug auf die Kinderbetreuung differenzieren wir nach verschiedenen Betreuungsformen innerhalb und auserhalb des Haushalts. Hier untersuchen wir auch, wie sich Eltern die Betreuungsarbeit untereinander aufteilen.

Die Mannheimer Corona-Studie: Schwerpunktbericht zu Erwerbstätigkeit und Kinderbetreuung

Previous research suggests that political parties learn from and emulate the successful election strategies of governing parties in other countries. But what explains variation in the degree of influence that governing parties have on their foreign counterparts? We argue that clarity of responsibility within government, or the concentration of executive responsibility in the hands of a dominant governing party, allows parties to learn from the most obviously electorally successful incumbents. It therefore enhances the cross-national diffusion of party programs. To test this expectation, we analyze parties’ policy positions in twenty-six established democracies since 1977. Our results indicate that parties disproportionately learn from and emulate dominant, high-clarity foreign incumbents. This finding contributes to a better understanding of the political consequences of government clarity and sheds new light on the heuristics that engender party-policy diffusion by demonstrating that the most visible foreign incumbents, whose platforms have yielded concentrated power in office, influence party politics “at home.”

/pdf/why-dominant-governing-parties-are-cross-nationally-2ax6ezk2bx.pdf

Roni Lehrer

Papers

COVID-19 policies in Germany and their social, political, and psychological consequences

Party Policy Diffusion

Barriers to the Large-Scale Adoption of the COVID-19 Contact-Tracing App in Germany

Die Mannheimer Corona-Studie: Schwerpunktbericht zu Erwerbstätigkeit und Kinderbetreuung

Why dominant governing parties are cross-nationally influential