Summary. We propose the elastic net, a new regularization and variable selection method. Real world data and a simulation study show that the elastic net often outperforms the lasso, while enjoying a similar sparsity of representation. In addition, the elastic net encourages a grouping effect, where strongly correlated predictors tend to be in or out of the model together.The elastic net is particularly useful when the number of predictors (p) is much bigger than the number of observations (n). By contrast, the lasso is not a very satisfactory variable selection method in the

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Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net

We develop fast algorithms for estimation of generalized linear models with convex penalties. The models include linear regression, two-class logistic regression, and multinomial regression problems while the penalties include l(1) (the lasso), l(2) (ridge regression) and mixtures of the two (the elastic net). The algorithms use cyclical coordinate descent, computed along a regularization path. The methods can handle large problems and can also deal efficiently with sparse features. In comparative timings we find that the new algorithms are considerably faster than competing methods.

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Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

Summary. We consider the problem of selecting grouped variables (factors) for accurate prediction in regression. Such a problem arises naturally in many practical situations with the multifactor analysis-of-variance problem as the most important and well-known example. Instead of selecting factors by stepwise backward elimination, we focus on the accuracy of estimation and consider extensions of the lasso, the LARS algorithm and the non-negative garrotte for factor selection. The lasso, the LARS algorithm and the non-negative garrotte are recently proposed regression methods that can be used to select individual variables. We study and propose efficient algorithms for the extensions of these methods for factor selection and show that these extensions give superior performance to the traditional stepwise backward elimination method in factor selection problems. We study the similarities and the differences between these methods. Simulations and real examples are used to illustrate the methods.

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Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables

The lasso is a popular technique for simultaneous estimation and variable selection. Lasso variable selection has been shown to be consistent under certain conditions. In this work we derive a necessary condition for the lasso variable selection to be consistent. Consequently, there exist certain scenarios where the lasso is inconsistent for variable selection. We then propose a new version of the lasso, called the adaptive lasso, where adaptive weights are used for penalizing different coefficients in the l1 penalty. We show that the adaptive lasso enjoys the oracle properties; namely, it performs as well as if the true underlying model were given in advance. Similar to the lasso, the adaptive lasso is shown to be near-minimax optimal. Furthermore, the adaptive lasso can be solved by the same efficient algorithm for solving the lasso. We also discuss the extension of the adaptive lasso in generalized linear models and show that the oracle properties still hold under mild regularity conditions. As a bypro...

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The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties

Abstract The Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) is an ongoing project that conducts nationally representative HIV-focused surveys for measuring national and regional progress toward UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 targets, the primary strategy to end the HIV epidemic. We believe the PHIA survey offers a unique opportunity to better understand the key factors that drive the HIV epidemics in the most affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In this article, we propose a novel causal structural learning algorithm to discover important covariates and potential causal pathways for 90-90-90 targets. Existing constraint-based causal structural learning algorithms are quite aggressive in edge removal. The proposed algorithm preserves more information about important features and potential causal pathways. It is applied to the Malawi PHIA (MPHIA) dataset and leads to interesting results. For example, it discovers age and condom usage to be important for female HIV awareness; the number of sexual partners to be important for male HIV awareness; and knowing the travel time to HIV care facilities leads to a higher chance of being treated for both females and males. We further compare and validate the proposed algorithm using BIC and using Monte Carlo simulations, and show that the proposed algorithm achieves improvement in true positive rates in important feature discovery over existing algorithms. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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Causal Structural Learning on MPHIA Individual Dataset

This paper considers estimating functional-coefficient models in panel quantile regression with individual effects, allowing the cross-sectional and temporal dependence for large panel observations. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogenous quantile regression models so that the number of nonparametric functional coefficients to be estimated can be reduced considerably. With the preliminary local linear quantile estimates of the subject-specific functional coefficients, a classic agglomerative clustering algorithm is used to estimate the unknown group structure and an easy-to-implement ratio criterion is proposed to determine the group number. The estimated group number and structure are shown to be consistent. Furthermore, a post-grouping local linear smoothing method is introduced to estimate the group-specific functional coefficients, and the relevant asymptotic normal distribution theory is derived with a normalisation rate comparable to that in the literature. The developed methodologies and theory are verified through a simulation study and showcased with an application to house price data from UK local authority districts, which reveals different homogeneity structures at different quantile levels.

Functional-Coefficient Quantile Regression for Panel Data with Latent Group Structure

We consider a class of network models, in which the connection probability depends on ultrahigh-dimensional nodal covariates (homophily) and node-specific popularity (degree heterogeneity). A Bayesian method is proposed to select nodal features in both dense and sparse networks under a mild assumption on popularity parameters. The proposed approach is implemented via Gibbs sampling. To alleviate the computational burden for large sparse networks, we further develop a working model in which parameters are updated based on a dense sub-graph at each step. Model selection consistency is established for both models, in the sense that the probability of the true model being selected converges to one asymptotically, even when the dimension grows with the network size at an exponential rate. The performance of the proposed models and estimation procedures are illustrated through Monte Carlo studies and three real world examples. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. 

Variable Selection for High-dimensional Nodal Attributes in Social Networks with Degree Heterogeneity*

When the functional data are not homogeneous, e.g., there exist multiple classes of functional curves in the dataset, traditional estimation methods may fail. In this paper, we propose a new estimation procedure for the Mixture of Gaussian Processes, to incorporate both functional and inhomogeneous properties of the data. Our method can be viewed as a natural extension of high-dimensional normal mixtures. However, the key difference is that smoothed structures are imposed for both the mean and covariance functions. The model is shown to be identifiable, and can be estimated efficiently by a combination of the ideas from EM algorithm, kernel regression, and functional principal component analysis. Our methodology is empirically justified by Monte Carlo simulations and illustrated by an analysis of a supermarket dataset.

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Runze Li

Papers

Causal Structural Learning on MPHIA Individual Dataset

Functional-Coefficient Quantile Regression for Panel Data with Latent Group Structure

Variable Selection for High-dimensional Nodal Attributes in Social Networks with Degree Heterogeneity*

Estimating Mixture of Gaussian Processes by Kernel Smoothing