In the 2010s, it was impossible not only to increase but also to maintain at a previously achieved level one of the key indicators of technological development—Russia’s place by the number of patent applications filed in the world and its share in license payments for granting the right to use intellectual property results. In the course of studying the global dynamics of granted patents in all areas of scientific and technical activity and the correlation analysis of the technological development vectors of leading countries, the most promising technological areas for the Russian economy have been identified and the need for their development within the framework of technological clusters has been substantiated. A new approach to the development of Russia’s national innovation system is presented in conjunction with the most pressing tasks of its socioeconomic development. The inexpediency of transferring into the domestic economy the laws characteristic of countries that promote the so-called concept of catch-up development is justified.

Relying on the National Innovation System as a Necessary Condition to Implement National Projects

The prices for electricity from renewable energy sources (RES) tend to decrease around the world and have already become lower than 1.5 rubles/(kW h) in the most advantageous projects. However, this indicator in Russia has essentially higher values both at present and in the forecast for 2035, which is caused by the system effect of RES integration in the power system. In fact, renewable energy and conventional energy are antipodes in Russia and are in contradiction with respect to each other. The article substantiates the possibility of harmonizing them with each other from the viewpoint of the universal organizational science called tectology and gives examples of technological solutions for implementing this: changing the operation modes of electrical loads in the compositions of consumer electrical systems and development of distributed cogeneration in accordance with the schedule of electrical rather than heat loads as a result of separating the heat-recovery and consumption processes in time by using thermal energy-storage devices. In fact, this refers to achieving better structural stability of the energy sector based on an alternative concept of its development and transition to optimizing the operation of the inseparable process chain “production–consumption of fuel and energy resources,” which also includes new, renewable sources. Apart from decreasing the costs for integrating RES into the power system and making the prices for electricity from RES in Russia commensurable with those around the world, this will also result in a more efficient power supply as a consequence of more uniform loading of thermal and nuclear power plants, the use of the nonutilized potential of decreasing the specific fuel consumption for electricity production in the cogeneration mode, and decreased losses in distribution networks.

Reducing Costs for Integration of Renewable Energy Sources: A Way to Making Renewable Energy More Accessible

Forecast and Concept for the Transition to Distributed Generation in Russia

The presented study of patterns of changes in specific (per capita) electricity consumption (SEC) in developed and developing countries, as well as in Russian regions, demonstrates that Russia does not have preconditions for electricity consumption growth to over 1400 bn kWh under the high scenario of the demographic forecast and to over 1300 bn kWh under the medium scenario. While differences between SECs in developed and developing countries have been decreasing since the 1960s, SEC differentiation among Russian regions is increasing. The conclusion reached using tools of the technocenosis theory is that efforts should be focused not on electricity consumption growth in regions with high energy supply (those specializing in mineral production and metallurgy), but on increasing SEC in outsider regions. The problem of reducing differences in SEC between Russian regions is important for the structural stability of the national economy as a system.

Tools of the Technocenosis Theory for Forecasting Electricity Consumption in Russia

The concept of sustainable development has identified the vector of technological development of the energy sector: support for renewable energy sources (RES) along with a reduction in the cost of electricity produced by them to the values comparable to traditional energy has led to the transformation of all parts of the seamless technological process of energy production and consumption. In the next decade in Russia, correction of energy development from the existing object system towards integration of consumers and energy producers by providing the ability to adjust power consumption to the generation schedule and the development of distributed cogeneration using the established heat consumption is a more effective way to reduce the negative human-induced impact in contrast to building of wind or solar power plants. Coverage of the peak load with cycling units in the mode of combined heat and power generation, having the ability to work according to the schedule of electric rather than thermal loads, as well as increasing the flexibility of power consumption, are the ways to increase the power utilization rate of traditional energy and reduce specific fuel consumption, and, in the future, to minimize costs for connecting stochastic renewable energy generation into the network.

Renewable Energy: Prospects for Energy Development Correction in Russia

Analysis of the dynamics of the number of patent applications allows us to identify the most general patterns of economic transformation. By creating varying conditions for research in different technological areas, it is possible to adjust the vector of social growth. The article shows that both before the emergence of the term “digital economy” and now, concentrating efforts of national investment systems in the field of computer technology is a necessary condition for ensuring technological sovereignty and achieving leading positions in the global economy in the foreseeable future and in the long run.

S. A. Nekrasov

Papers

Renewable Energy: Prospects for Energy Development Correction in Russia

Tools of the Technocenosis Theory for Forecasting Electricity Consumption in Russia

Economic Growth Through the Prism of Patent Activity