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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Chapter 2 emphasises change against a background of variability. The certainty of conclusions that can be drawn about climate from observations depends critically on the availability of accurate, complete and consistent series of observations. For many variables important in documenting, detecting, and attributing climate change, data are still not good enough for really firm conclusions to be reached. This especially applies to global trends in variables that have large regional variations, such as pre-

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Observed climate variability and change

Circulation in the Western Mediterranean Sea

A dense daily precipitation data base, extending from 1964 to 1993, has been created for the Mediterranean regions of Spain. It is composed of complete and homogeneous series at 410 raingauge stations (347 in the coastal fringe of peninsular Spain, and 63 in the Balearic Islands). The region offers an interesting scenario for mesoclimatological studies on time and spatial rainfall variability: geomorphologically, it is characterized by important coastal relief units and complex distribution of sea and land masses, leading to different exposures to the rain-bearing maritime winds; climatically, the western Mediterranean is subject to strong seasonal variability, since it is a transition zone between the midlatitude low pressure belt and the subtropical highs as a result of its latitude (between 36° and 44° N). In this study, we exploit the data base and present a first pluviometric characterization of the area by means of yearly and seasonal mean products. The results reveal clear and coherent spatial patterns that we interpret, based on typical storm tracks and land, sea, and relief distributions. In addition, a partition of the 30-year period into three decades (1964-1973, 1974-1983, 1984-1993) has been considered in order to assess the possible existence of any trend. A successive drying of the most sensitive areas to the winter Atlantic depressions (western Catalonia, and central and west Andalucia) is observed. In contrast, the second analysed decade is appreciably drier than the other two in the areas more dependent on the Mediterranean disturbances. The occurrence of anomalous autumns being the most responsible. This fact emphasizes the fundamental importance of the autumn season for the pluviometric balance of the considered area, especially in its eastern part where the major amount of precipitation during this season is produced by convective systems.

A 30‐year (1964–1993) daily rainfall data base for the Spanish Mediterranean regions: first exploratory study

The inflow of Atlantic water through the strait of Gilbraltar usually exhibits a stationary wavelike pattern in the Alboran sea. We use an objective analysis technique for quantitative scale separation to investigate the interaction of scales in the region. The large scale is clearly dominated by an anticyclonic gyre. Smaller scale analysis shows the existence of several mesoscale cyclonic eddies along the northern boundary of the western Alboran sea anticyclonic gyre. The relationship between the large-scale/mesoscale variability and the induced ageostrophic vertical motion is established using the Q vector formulation. We find that on the macroscale, upward motion occurs upstream of the anticyclonic gyre (upstream of a wave crest) while downward motion takes place downstream (upstream of a trough). We also show that the vertical motion associated with the mesoscale eddies is an order of magnitude higher than the large-scale vertical motion. These patterns of large-scale and mesoscale vertical m...

Mesoscale Dynamics and Vertical Motion in the Alborán Sea

A diagnostic evaluation of three project ANOMALIA case studies involving heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean region has been carried out. The evaluation shows the unique characteristics of each event, as well as some limited similarities. Heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean region typically occur downstream of a significant cyclone aloft (often, but not always, exhibiting “cutoff” cyclone characteristics), but important structural and evolutionary differences are found among these cases. At low levels, a long fetch of flow over the Mediterranean Sea frequently interacts with terrain features to produce persistent heavy precipitation. Although most heavy precipitation events occur during the fall season, they can develop at other times. In the first case, the synoptic-scale environment produced low static stability and substantial storm-relative environmental helicity, thereby supporting both heavy rain in the vicinity of Valencia on mainland Spain and on Ibiza in ...

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A Diagnostic Study of Three Heavy Precipitation Episodes in the Western Mediterranean Region

Projections of climate change effects for the System of Platja de Palma (SPdP) are derived using a novel statistical technique. Socioeconomic activities developed in this settlement are very closely linked to its climate. Any planning for socioeconomic opportunities in the mid- and long term must take into account the possible effects of climate change. To this aim, daily observed series of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed have been analyzed. For the climate projections, daily data generated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) have been used. To properly use RCM data at local scale, a quantile–quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional projections. The method is based on detecting changes in the cumulative distribution functions between the recent past and successive time slices of the simulated climate and applying these, after calibration, to the recent past (observed) series. Results show an overall ...

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A Statistical Adjustment of Regional Climate Model Outputs to Local Scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain

Climate change will result in more intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves. The most hazardous conditions emerge when extreme daytime temperatures combine with warm night-time temperatures, high humidities and light winds for several consecutive days. Here, we assess present and future heat wave impacts on human health in Europe. Present daily physiologically equivalent temperatures (PET) are derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. PET allows to specifically focus on heat-related risks on humans. Regarding projections, a suite of high-resolution regional climate models – run under SRES A1B scenario – has been used. A quantile–quantile adjustment is applied to the daily simulated PET to correct biases in individual model climatologies and a multimodel ensemble strategy is adopted to encompass model errors. Two types of heat waves differently impacting human health – strong and extreme stress – are defined according to specified thresholds of thermal stress and duration. Heat wave number, frequency, duration and amplitude are derived for each type. Results reveal relatively strong correlations between the spatial distribution of strong and extreme heat wave amplitudes and mortality excess for the 2003 European summer. Projections suggest a steady increase and a northward extent of heat wave attributes in Europe. Strong stress heat wave frequencies could increase more than 40 days, lasting over 20 days more by 2075–2094. Amplitudes might augment up to 7 °C per heat wave day. Important increases in extreme stress heat wave attributes are also expected: up to 40 days in frequency, 30 days in duration and 4 °C in amplitude. We believe that with this information at hand policy makers and stakeholders on vulnerable populations to heat stress can respond more effectively to the future challenges imposed by climate warming.

S. Alonso

Papers

A 30‐year (1964–1993) daily rainfall data base for the Spanish Mediterranean regions: first exploratory study

Mesoscale Dynamics and Vertical Motion in the Alborán Sea

A Diagnostic Study of Three Heavy Precipitation Episodes in the Western Mediterranean Region

A Statistical Adjustment of Regional Climate Model Outputs to Local Scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain

Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe