This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol’s method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent. Mathematical modeling of complex systems often requires sensitivity analysis to determine how an output variable of interest is influenced by individual or subsets of input variables. A traditional local sensitivity analysis entails gradients or derivatives, often invoked in design optimization, describing changes in the model response due to the local variation of input. Depending on the model output, obtaining gradients or derivatives, if they exist, can be simple or difficult. In contrast, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), increasingly becoming mainstream, characterizes how the global variation of input, due to its uncertainty, impacts the overall uncertain behavior of the model. In other words, GSA constitutes the study of how the output uncertainty from a mathematical model is divvied up, qualitatively or quantitatively, to distinct sources of input variation in the model [1].

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk assessment tool that mitigates potential failures in systems, processes, designs or services and has been used in a wide range of industries. The conventional risk priority number (RPN) method has been criticized to have many deficiencies and various risk priority models have been proposed in the literature to enhance the performance of FMEA. However, there has been no literature review on this topic. In this study, we reviewed 75 FMEA papers published between 1992 and 2012 in the international journals and categorized them according to the approaches used to overcome the limitations of the conventional RPN method. The intention of this review is to address the following three questions: (i) Which shortcomings attract the most attention? (ii) Which approaches are the most popular? (iii) Is there any inadequacy of the approaches? The answers to these questions will give an indication of current trends in research and the best direction for future research in order to further address the known deficiencies associated with the traditional FMEA.

Review: Risk evaluation approaches in failure mode and effects analysis: A literature review

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has been extensively used for examining potential failures in products, processes, designs and services. An important issue of FMEA is the determination of risk priorities of the failure modes that have been identified. The traditional FMEA determines the risk priorities of failure modes using the so-called risk priority numbers (RPNs), which require the risk factors like the occurrence (O), severity (S) and detection (D) of each failure mode to be precisely evaluated. This may not be realistic in real applications. In this paper we treat the risk factors O, S and D as fuzzy variables and evaluate them using fuzzy linguistic terms and fuzzy ratings. As a result, fuzzy risk priority numbers (FRPNs) are proposed for prioritization of failure modes. The FRPNs are defined as fuzzy weighted geometric means of the fuzzy ratings for O, S and D, and can be computed using alpha-level sets and linear programming models. For ranking purpose, the FRPNs are defuzzified using centroid defuzzification method, in which a new centroid defuzzification formula based on alpha-level sets is derived. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the potential applications of the proposed fuzzy FMEA and the detailed computational process of the FRPNs.

https://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/jian-bo.yang/JB%20Yang%20Journal_Papers/WangChinPoonYang_ESWA.pdf

Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy weighted geometric mean

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used engineering technique for designing, identifying and eliminating known and/or potential failures, problems, errors and so on from system, design, process, and/or service before they reach the customer (Stamatis, 1995). In a typical FMEA, for each failure modes, three risk factors; severity (S), occurrence (O), and detectability (D) are evaluated and a risk priority number (RPN) is obtained by multiplying these factors. There are significant efforts which have been made in FMEA literature to overcome the shortcomings of the crisp RPN calculation. In this study a fuzzy approach, allowing experts to use linguistic variables for determining S, O, and D, is considered for FMEA by applying fuzzy 'technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution' (TOPSIS) integrated with fuzzy 'analytical hierarchy process' (AHP). The hypothetical case study demonstrated the applicability of the model in FMEA under fuzzy environment.

Fuzzy failure modes and effects analysis by using fuzzy TOPSIS-based fuzzy AHP

Reprioritization of failures in a system failure mode and effects analysis by decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique

Fuzzy assessment of FMEA for engine systems

This paper presents a comparative study of the predictive performances of neural network time series models for forecasting failures and reliability in engine systems. Traditionally, failure data analysis requires specifications of parametric failure distributions and justifications of certain assumptions, which are at times difficult to validate. On the other hand, the time series modeling technique using neural networks provides a promising alternative. Neural network modeling via feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) suffers from local minima problems and long computation time. The radial basis function (RBF) neural network architecture is found to be a viable alternative due to its shorter training time. Illustrative examples using reliability testing and field data showed that the proposed model results in comparable or better predictive performance than traditional MLP model and the linear benchmark based on Box–Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA) models. The effects of input window size and hidden layer nodes are further investigated. Appropriate design topologies can be determined via sensitivity analysis.

S. L. Ho

Papers

Fuzzy assessment of FMEA for engine systems

Application of neural networks in forecasting engine systems reliability