Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation – A 25-year review

The digital divide refers to the separation between those who have access to digital information and communications technology (ICT) and those who do not. Many believe that universal access to ICT would bring about a global community of interaction, commerce, and learning resulting in higher standards of living and improved social welfare. However, the digital divide threatens this outcome leading many public policy makers to debate the best way to bridge the divide. Much of the research on the digital divide focuses on first order effects regarding who has access to the technology, but some work addresses the second order effects of inequality in the ability to use the technology among those who do have access. In this paper, we examine both first and second order effects of the digital divide at three levels of analysis  the individual level, the organizational level, and the global level. At each level, we survey the existing research noting the theoretical perspective taken in the work, the research methodology employed, and the key results that were obtained. We then suggest a series of research questions at each level of analysis to guide researchers seeking to further examine the digital divide and how it impacts citizens, managers, and economies.

The Digital Divide: Current and Future Research Directions

To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, we examine a panel of 161 countries over the 1999-2001 period. Our candidate variables include economic variables (income per capita, years of schooling, illiteracy, trade openness), demographic variables (youth and aged dependency ratios, urbanization rate), infrastructure indicators (telephone density, electricity consumption), telecommunications pricing measures, and regulatory quality. With the exception of trade openness and the telecom pricing measures, these variables enter in as statistically significant in most specifications for computer use. A similar pattern holds true for Internet use, except that telephone density and aged dependency matter less. The global digital divide is mainly – but by no means entirely – accounted for by income differentials. For computers, telephone density and regulatory quality are of second and third importance, while for the Internet, this ordering is reversed. The region specific explanations for large disparities in computer and Internet penetration are generally very similar. Our results suggest that public investment in human capital, telecommunications infrastructure, and the regulatory infrastructure can mitigate the gap in PC and Internet use.

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The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration

The economics of mobile payments: Understanding stakeholder issues for an emerging financial technology application

What factors have promoted and retarded the spread of the Internet globally? The Internet is one example of the diffusion of technology. Much as other technologies, the Internet has diffused unevenly across countries, raising concerns over a “digital divide.” My main proposition is that its spread has been driven by neither technological nor economic factors alone. Rather, political factors exert a powerful influence. Groups that believe they will lose from the Internet use political institutions to enact policies that block the spread of the Internet. Some political institutions make this easier than others. Data from roughly 190 countries from 1991 to 2001 showthat a country's regime type matters greatly, even when controlling for other economic, technological, political, and sociological factors. Democratic governments facilitate the spread of the Internet relative to autocratic ones. Thus, the spread of democracy may help reduce the digital divide.

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The Digital Divide: The Role of Political Institutions in Technology Diffusion

Cross-country Diffusion of the Internet

This paper investigates the factors which determine the diffusion of the Internet across countries. The Gompertz model of technology diffusion is estimated using data on Internet hosts per capita for the year 1995-2000. [Discussion Paper No. 2001-11]

Sampsa Kiiski

Papers

Cross-country Diffusion of the Internet

Cross-country Diffusion of the Internet