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The growth of incarceration in the United States: exploring causes and consequences

Hidden wholesale: The drug diffusing capacity of online drug cryptomarkets

Enforcement against drug selling remains the principal tool of drug control in the United States and many other countries. Though the risk of incarceration for a drug dealer has risen fivefold or more over the last 25 years in the United States, the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen substantially. Different models of how enforcement affects drug supply may help explain the paradox. There are substantial periods in which drug markets are not in the stable equilibrium that has informed much of the empirical research. Enforcement is likely to be more effective in preventing the formation of a mass market than in suppressing such a market once it has formed. Once a mass market is established, there may be little return to intense enforcement. A modest level of enforcement may generate most of the benefits from prohibition.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/652386

How Drug Enforcement Affects Drug Prices

Generally more is known about drug use and demand than about markets and supply, in large part because population survey data are available while market data are not. Although the household populat...

/pdf/marijuana-markets-inferences-from-reports-by-the-household-2novncl8ii.pdf

Marijuana Markets: Inferences from Reports by the Household Population:

How well do international drug conventions protect public health

Estimates are developed for the number of people incarcerated in the United States for drug law violations between 1972 and 2002, broken down by type of institution (federal prison, state prison, or jail) and, to the extent possible, by nature of drug offense (possession or use, trafficking, or other). These time series are compared to trends in drug use indicators, revealing at best weak correlations, and the absolute levels are compared to different market indicators to draw various inferences. For example, even though about 480,000 people are incarcerated for drug law violations, on average retail sellers spend less than 2 hours behind bars per sale. Still, full-time sellers might expect to spend 3 months incarcerated per year of selling, suggesting that there are roughly four active drug sellers for every one who is incarcerated.

Sarah Chandler

Papers

Long-Run Trends in Incarceration of Drug Offenders in the United States