We investigate how the relation between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar has been affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We use spot prices of gold and spot bilateral exchange rates against the Euro and the British Pound to study the pattern of volatility spillovers. We estimate the bivariate structural GARCH models proposed by Spargoli e Zagaglia (2008) to gauge the causal relations between volatility changes in the two assets. We also apply the tests for change of co-dependence of Cappiello, Gerard and Manganelli (2005). We document the ability of gold to generate stable comovements with the Dollar exchange rate that have survived the recent phases of market disruption. Our findings also show that exogenous increases in market uncertainty have tended to produce reactions of gold prices that are more stable than those of the U.S. Dollar.

Gold and the U.S. Dollar: Tales from the Turmoil

This study employs the momentum threshold error-correction model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causal relationships between West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil and gold prices in the futures market. The paper examines data from May 1, 1994 to November 20, 2008. The empirical results show that an asymmetric long-run adjustment exists between gold and oil. Furthermore, the causality relationship shows that West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil plays a dominant role. The findings should prove valuable to individual investors and financial institutions who can use the findings here to gold prices based on oil prices.

The Asymmetric Long-Run Relationship between Crude Oil and Gold Futures

Dividends, as a policy is still a matter of debate. This situation is due to both, lack of consensus in the literature and self-evolution of corporate finance worldwide. Therefore, this study is an attempt to provide insights of the contemporary dividend policy and its driving forces. We collect the panel data from 78 non-financial Indian firms from BSE-100 (BSE-100 is a leading index of Indian companies by Bombay Stock Exchange) from 2015-2019. We decide to test how dividends are driven by default risk, ownership concentration (OC) and profitability of the firms. Profitability is used as moderator to the association of default risk with the dividends. We get startling evidence that OC and profitability do not influence the dividends policy in the firms in India. Default risk negatively impacts the dividends. However, the absolute value of the coefficient is too small and hence can be ignored. Furthermore, we find evidence that dividends are consistent despite the situation of profitability and OC. This finding is one of the main contributions of the study. We recommend to have differential voting rights (DVR) shares to cater to varying aspirations of different investors. Empirical evidence of findings of the study would be an eye-opener to the managers, which is one of the major implications of the current study. Additionally, change of the policies on the DVR shares is another major implication of the study.

An Impact of Default Risk and Promoters’ Holding on the Dividend Policy in the Firms in India: Evidence using Panel Data

Recurrent stock market fall and rise sequel by COVID-19, rising global inflation, increase in Fed interest rates, the unprecedented meltdown of technology stocks, fear of trade wars, tightening of governments’ fiscal policies call for a new trend in international investing. It is time for the investors to rethink, rebalance and reset their investment strategies to position and protect their portfolios during and post-pandemic period. This paper attempts to forecast the gold prices for the post-pandemic era and explores whether gold will serve as a decisive hedge during this transition period. The techniques of ARCH, GARCH, E-GARCH, A-PARCH, and GARCH-M is employed in forecasting the conditional volatility of gold spot price from Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) of India. A total of 3631 observations were collected from the daily spot prices of gold from January 2009 to December 2022. The findings show that the gold prices in India are highly persistent similar to other emerging markets and that gold will remain a safe haven for investors and institutional investors in the post-pandemic period. This paper is the first of its kind to forecast gold prices for the post-pandemic period. The forecast price of 10-gram gold is expected to trade for 65,948 ₹ in the Indian MCX by 2026 if the gold prices behold its previous momentum. This forecast will help the investors to plan their portfolio diversification for the post-pandemic period.

/pdf/will-gold-prices-persist-post-pandemic-period-an-econometric-3duo4ec4.pdf

Will Gold Prices Persist Post Pandemic Period? An Econometric Evidence

Although several studies on the integration of diverse stock markets have been conducted in the financial literature, most of them have focused on the integration and volatility spillovers across established stock markets. The present study explores the dynamics of integration and volatility spillover across gold, oil, forex, and stock markets during four significant events in India: the pre-changed government regime, the post-changed government regime, the post-Brexit referendum date, and the COVID era. Daily data from 2010 to 2022 is divided into four categories using the Chow test. This is done to examine if these events’ financial turmoil affects market interconnectivity. The unit root test determines data stationarity. The ARCH LM test examines series volatility clustering, and the BEKK GARCH test examines market volatility spillover. Results indicate that gold cannot be considered a hedge or safe haven. Secondly, market interconnectedness increased during the crisis period. Third, domestic political and geopolitical conditions globally do not increase the scale of spillover amongst financial assets, though they impact the spillover’s magnitude. The results of this study have several important implications for portfolio diversification and risk management.

https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/18025/IMFI_2023_02_Ingalhalli.pdf

Modelling volatility effects between stock, oil, gold and forex markets: Evidence from India

Crude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.,This study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.,The main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.,Gold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.,Gold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

Satyendra Pratap Singh

Papers

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India