The main conclusion is that non-fuel trade among developing countries, excluding capital-surplus oil exporters, accounted for a remarkably stable share of their total trade between 1963 and 1977. This constancy, however, conceals two interesting opposing trends: the share of manufactures exported to developing countries has been falling sharply while that of non-fuel primary commodities has been rising, the latter largely because of the demands of the newly industrializing countries (NICs). Nevertheless, the dynamism of manufactures has meant that they makeup an increasing share of trade among developing countries. Four particular points emerge from the evidence: (a) there is no obvious sign of a bias against trade among developing countries, except by whatever effect their own commercial policies may have; (b) the more inward-looking countries tend to send a higher proportion of their exports to other developing countries, and regional integration strengthens this effect; (c) exports of manufactures of developing countries are much more capital intensive than those to industrialized countries; and (d) exports to developing countries markets may not be the vital first stage for capital goods exports that is sometimes supposed.

Trade among developing countries : theory, policy issues, and principal trends

This paper looks at the changing world trade environment by origin and destination. The framework, and hence the analysis, is highly aggregate in nature. In this paper, developing countries are distinguished in functional rather than geographical categories: oil exporters and oil importers, low and middle income countries. The paper analyzes the historical years 1970 and 1977 as well as the years 1980 and 1990, as projected in the World Development Report of 1980. The emphasis is on total merchandise trade; although fuel matrices have also been developed, and hence the determination of non-fuel merchandise trade flows. The paper is primarily of a descriptive nature. It is meant as a first exploration into the dimensions and nature of recent shifts in the structure of trade, particularly of oil-importing and oil-exporting developing countries. The results are part of a wider project, aiming at a detailed assessment and analysis of trade among developing countries. These preliminary results should provide an informative framework and as such help to formulate guidelines and hypotheses for further analysis in the interdeveloping country trade context.

Schwartz, Antoine Lutz, Ernst Jacobsen, Irma Lee, Aeran Epdit

Papers

World Trade Flows by Origin and Destination, 1970-90: A Functional Analysis*