世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

The four Visegrad states — Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia (until 1993 Czechoslovakia) and Hungary — form a compact area between Germany and Austria in the west and the states of the former USSR in the east. They are bounded by the Baltic in the north and the Danube river in the south. They are cut by the Sudeten and Carpathian mountain ranges, which divide Poland off from the other states. Poland is an extension of the North European plain and like the latter is drained by rivers that flow from south to north west — the Oder, the Vlatava and the Elbe, the Vistula and the Bug. The Danube is the great exception, flowing from its source eastward, turning through two 90-degree turns to end up in the Black Sea, forming the barrier and often the political frontier between central Europe and the Balkans. Hungary to the east of the Danube is also an open plain. The region is historically and culturally part of western Europe, but its eastern Marches now represents a vital strategic zone between Germany and the core of the European Union to the west and the Russian zone to the east.

Economy and Society

This book demonstrates that people's basic values and beliefs are changing, in ways that affect their political, sexual, economic, and religious behaviour. These changes are roughly predictable: to a large extent, they can be interpreted on the basis of a revised version of modernisation theory presented here. Drawing on a massive body of evidence from societies containing 85 percent of the world's population, the authors demonstrate that modernisation is a process of human development, in which economic development gives rise to cultural changes that make individual autonomy, gender equality, and democracy increasingly likely. The authors present a model of social change that predicts how the value systems play a crucial role in the emergence and flourishing of democratic institutions - and that modernisation brings coherent cultural changes that are conducive to democratisation.

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Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence

This 1997 book addresses the current debate regarding the liabilities and merits of presidential government. Does presidentialism make it less likely that democratic governments will be able to manage political conflict? With the unprecedented wave of transitions to democracy since the 1970s, this question has been hotly contested in political and intellectual circles all over the globe. The contributors to this volume examine variations among different presidential systems and skeptically view claims that presidentialism has added significantly to the problems of democratic governance and stability.

Presidentialism and democracy in Latin America

Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America

Tables abbreviations of the main political parties, 1979-96 Part I. Rethinking Part systems Theory: 1. Introduction 2. Reexamining party systems theory in the third wave of democratisation Part II. The Brazilian Part Systems, Past and Present: 3. A legacy of party underdevelopment, 1822-1979 4. Elections, parties and society, 1979-96 5. Weak parties and autonomous politicians: party organisation in the catch-all parties 6. Patronage, clientelism, and patrimonialism Part III. Explaining Weak Party-System Institutionalisation: 7. Macrocomparative factors and post-1964 developments 8. Institutional rules and weak institutionalisation: incentives for legislators 9. Institutional rules and the party system: federalism, Malapportionment and presidentialism Part IV. The Party System, Economic Reform, and the Quality of Democracy: 10. Political institutions, state reform and economic stabilisation 11. Conclusion Notes Bibliography Index.

Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil

Starting from recent analyses that have argued that presidentialism is less favorable for building stable democracy than parliamentary systems, this article argues that the combination of a multipa...

Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy The Difficult Combination

The overarching argument of this paper is that the party systems of less developed countries are less institutionalized than those of the advanced industrial democracies. The paper examines three differences between the party systems of the advanced industrial democracies and party systems of less developed countries. First, we show that most democracies and semi-democracies in less developed countries have much higher electoral volatility than the advanced industrial democracies. Second, much of the literature on parties and party systems assumes the context of institutionalized party systems with strong party roots in society and further presupposes that programmatic or ideological linkages are at the root of the stable linkages between voters and parties. In the party systems of most democracies and semi-democracies in less developed countries, programmatic or ideological linkages between voters and parties are weaker. Third, linkages between voters and candidates are more personalistic in less developed countries than in the advanced industrial democracies.

Scott Mainwaring

Papers

Presidentialism and democracy in Latin America

Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America

Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil

Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy The Difficult Combination

Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory: After the Third Wave of Democratization