Reanalysis precipitation products (RPPs) are frequently used for studying the water cycle changes from short to long-term scale globally. In the current study, ERA-5 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS-2) precipitation products were evaluated with the rain-gauge data as a reference during 1981–2019 over Pakistan. The performance was assessed using statistical error metrics on daily, monthly, and annual timescales. The reanalysis precipitation products (RPPs) captured the precipitation intensities and the extreme precipitation events (75th to 99th percentile) across climatic classes. On a daily scale, the ERA-5 follows rain-gauges very closely (RC: 0.67, R: 0.81, RMSE: 1.69 mm), consistently capturing the precipitation intensities (light to violent) and extreme precipitation events (95th percentile), followed by CFS-2. The MERRA-2 captured precipitation intensity but did not detect extreme precipitation events in some regions. The JRA-55 produced good results in the central area while overestimated the precipitation in the northern and southern parts of the study area. On a monthly time scale, ERA-5 performed well as compared to the rest of RPPs, with regression coefficient values of 0.91, correlation coefficient (0.96), and a lower value of RMSE (11.09 mm), followed by JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFS-2. All the RPPs performed better in winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons with slight deviations/differences, but in monsoon season, the ERA-5 and JRA-55 (MERRA-2, CFS-2) overestimated (underestimated) precipitation mean. The findings can help the researchers select reliable datasets for bias correction of the projections and real-time application in flood, drought estimation, and prediction.

Performance evaluation of ERA-5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFS-2 reanalysis datasets, over diverse climate regions of Pakistan

The substantial reliance of South Asia (SA) to rain-based agriculture makes the region susceptible to food scarcity due to droughts. Previously, most research on SA has emphasized the meteorological aspects with little consideration of agrarian drought impressions. The insufficient amount of in situ precipitation data across SA has also hindered thorough investigation in the agriculture sector. In recent times, models, satellite remote sensing, and reanalysis products have increased the amount of data. Hence, soil moisture, precipitation, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and vegetation condition index (VCI) products have been employed to illustrate SA droughts from 1982 to 2019 using a standardized index/anomaly approach. Besides, the relationships of these products towards crop production are evaluated using the annual national production of barley, maize, rice, and wheat by computing the yield anomaly index (YAI). Our findings indicate that MERRA-2, CPC, FLDAS (soil moisture), GPCC, and CHIRPS (precipitation) are alike and constant over the entire four regions of South Asia (northwest, southwest, northeast, and southeast). On the other hand, GLDAS and ERA5 remain poor when compared to other soil moisture products and identified drought conditions in regions one (northwest) and three (northeast). Likewise, TWS products such as MERRA-2 TWS and GRACE TWS (2002–2014) followed the patterns of ERA5 and GLDAS and presented divergent and inconsistent drought patterns. Furthermore, the vegetation condition index (VCI) remained less responsive in regions three (northeast) and four (southeast) only. Based on annual crop production data, MERRA-2, CPC, FLDAS, GPCC, and CHIRPS performed fairly well and indicated stronger and more significant associations (0.80 to 0.96) when compared to others. Thus, the current outcomes are imperative for gauging the deficient amount of data in the SA region, as they provide substitutes for agricultural drought monitoring.

Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past and is expected to increase faster in future. However, the anticipated changes in socioeconomic exposure to heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate the projected heat stress and associated socioeconomic exposure across South Asia (SA) and its subregions using the newly released ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and three-time periods, that is, near-term, midterm, and long-term relative to the base period (1985–2005). We found that SA region has the potential for widespread changes to Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 6.5°C, which can exceed the theoretical limits of human tolerance by the mid of 21st century. The SA population's exposure significantly increases during midterm and long-term periods by ∼ person-hours under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The GDP exposure is the greatest for the same period's up to dollar-hours under the SSP2-4.5. Moreover, the foothills Himalayans and northern parts of Pakistan are presently unaffected by WBGT during midterm and long-term periods under both scenarios. Among subregions (hereafter R1, R2, R3, and R4), the frequency of subdaily WBGT is projected to increase in the region R2 and R4 by ∼70% and ∼90% under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios relative to the base period. The highest upsurge in exposure is anticipated for R2, including southern Pakistan and southwestern India, followed by R1 and R3. Notably, the climate effect is more dominant than the population, whereas changes in GDP effect contribute to the total change in GDP exposure. 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2021EF002240

Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Recent variability of sub-seasonal monsoon precipitation and its potential drivers in Myanmar using in-situ observation during 1981–2020

Droughts during the growing season are projected to increase in frequency and severity in Central Europe in the future. Thus, area-wide monitoring of agricultural drought in this region is becoming more and more important. In this context, it is essential to know where and when vegetation growth is primarily water-limited and whether remote sensing-based drought indices can detect agricultural drought in these areas. To answer these questions, we conducted a correlation analysis between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) within the growing season from 2001 to 2020 in Bavaria (Germany) and investigated the relationship with land cover and altitude. In the second step, we applied the drought indices Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) to primarily water-limited areas and evaluated them with soil moisture and agricultural yield anomalies. We found that, especially in the summer months (July and August), on agricultural land and grassland and below 800 m, NDVI and LST are negatively correlated and thus, water is the primary limiting factor for vegetation growth here. Within these areas and periods, the TCI and VHI correlate strongly with soil moisture and agricultural yield anomalies, suggesting that both indices have the potential to detect agricultural drought in Bavaria.

Agricultural Drought Detection with MODIS Based Vegetation Health Indices in Southeast Germany

Drought is an intricate atmospheric phenomenon with the greatest impacts on food security and agriculture in South Asia. Timely and appropriate forecasting of drought is vital in reducing its negative impacts. This study intended to explore the performance of the evaporative stress index (ESI), vegetation health index (VHI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and standardized anomaly index (SAI) based on satellite remote sensing data from 2002–2019 for agricultural drought assessment in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The spatial maps were generated against each index, which indicated a severe agricultural drought during the year 2002, compared to the other years. The results showed that the southeast region of Pakistan, and the north, northwest, and southwest regions of India and Afghanistan were significantly affected by drought. However, Bangladesh faced substantial drought in the northeast and northwest regions during the drought year (2002). The longest drought period of seven months was observed in India followed by Pakistan and Afghanistan with six months, while, only three months were perceived in Bangladesh. The correlation between drought indices and climate variables such as soil moisture has remained a significant drought-initiating variable. Furthermore, this study confirmed that the evaporative stress index (ESI) is a good agricultural drought indicator, being quick and with greater sensitivity, and thus advantageous compared to the VHI, EVI, and SAI vegetation indices.

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/11/2059/pdf

Remote Sensing Indices for Spatial Monitoring of Agricultural Drought in South Asian Countries

Taking cognizance of the medicinal significance and diverse functions of synthetic Morita-Baylis-Hillman adducts (MBHA), the title ligand was synthesized and purified through column chromatography. Cr+3, Mn+2, Co+3, Ni+2, Cu+2 complexes of the ligand were synthesized under basic conditions, subjected to characterization through spectral analyses and verified with the IR spectrum that was generated computationally by the DFT B3LYP method, with 6-311++ G (d,p) basis set and Hartree Fock (HF) B3LYP method in conjunction with 3-21G(d,p) basis set. Powder XRD helped to testify crystals of the complexes. Moreover, the antibacterial, and antioxidant characteristics of MBHA and its complexes were also established. All of them were found to be active antioxidants. The antibacterial activities, examined against S. aureus, E. coli, B. pumilis and S. typhi have revealed that its Cobalt complex has an excellent potential to act against all of them. Hence, these compounds maybe having potentialities for the discovery of new, cheaper and efficient drugs against various infectious diseases. The study also uncovers the first example of utilization of MBHA towards metal complex formation.

/pdf/synthesis-characterization-biological-activities-and-ab-n4k3h7n7.pdf

Synthesis, Characterization, Biological Activities and Ab-initio Study of Transition Metal Complexes of [Methyl 2-((4-chlorophenyl)(hydroxy)methyle) Acrylate].

/pdf/transition-metal-complexes-of-methyl-2-4-chlorophenyl-1irzidn7.pdf

Shazia Ishfaq

Papers

Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

Remote Sensing Indices for Spatial Monitoring of Agricultural Drought in South Asian Countries

Synthesis, Characterization, Biological Activities and Ab-initio Study of Transition Metal Complexes of [Methyl 2-((4-chlorophenyl)(hydroxy)methyle) Acrylate].

Transition Metal Complexes Of [Methyl 2-((4-Chlorophenyl) (Hydroxy)Methyle) Acrylate]:- An Important Biologically Active MBH Adduct.

Morita Baylis Hillman Adduct Serves as Ligand in the Synthesis of Transition Metal Complexes Exhibiting Antibacterial Activity