世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Migration, both within and beyond borders, has become an increasingly prominent theme in domestic and international debates, and is the topic of the 2009 Human Development Report (HDR09). The starting point is that the global distribution of capabilities is extraordinarily unequal, and that this is a major driver for movement of people. Migration can expand their choices — in terms of incomes, accessing services and participation, for example — but the opportunities open to people vary from those who are best endowed to those with limited skills and assets. These underlying inequalities, which can be compounded by policy distortions, is a theme of the report.The report investigates migration in the context of demographic changes and trends in both growth and inequality. It also presents more detailed and nuanced individual, family and village experiences, and explores less visible movements typically pursued by disadvantaged groups such as short term and seasonal migration.There is a range of evidence about the positive impacts of migration on human development, through such avenues as increased household incomes and improved access to education and health services. There is further evidence that migration can empower traditionally disadvantaged groups, in particular women. At the same time, risks to human development are also present where migration is a reaction to threats and denial of choice, and where regular opportunities for movement are constrained.National and local policies play a critical role in enabling better human development outcomes for both those who choose to move in order to improve their circumstances, and those forced to relocate due to conflict, environmental degradation, or other reasons. Host country restrictions can raise both the costs and the risks of migration. Similarly, negative outcomes can arise at the country levels where basic civic rights, like voting, schooling and health care are denied to those who have moved across provincial lines to work and live. HDR09 shows how a human development approach can be a means to redress some of the underlying issues that erode the potential benefits of mobility and/or force migration.

Human Development Report 2009. Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development

Corruption, particularly political or "grand" corruption, distorts the entire decision-making process connected with public investment projects. The degree of distortions is higher with weaker auditing institutions. The evidence presented shows that higher corruption is associated with (i) higher public investment; (ii) lower government revenues; (iii) lower expenditures on operations and maintenance; and (iv) lower quality of public infrastructure. The evidence also shows that corruption increases public investment while reducing its productivity. These are five channels through which corruption lowers growth. An implication is that economists should be more restrained in their praise of high public sector investment, especially in countries with high corruption.

Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth

Using new data on emigration rates by education level, we examine the impact of brain drain migration on human capital formation in developing countries. We find evidence of a positive effect of skilled migration prospects on gross human capital formation in a cross-section of 127 countries. For each country of the sample we then estimate the net effect of the brain drain using counterfactual simulations. Countries combining relatively low levels of human capital and low emigration rates are shown to experience a ‘beneficial brain drain’, and conversely, there are more losers than winners, and the former tend to lose relatively more than what the latter gain.

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Brain drain and human capital formation in developing countries : winners and losers

The brain drain: curse or boon? A survey of the literature

Among the many popular images of the Russian transition, none cast a more dramatic shadow than the apparently rapid transformation of an entire system from one characterised by low inequality and largely absent poverty to one marked by extremes of deprivation and prosperity. Once hailed as a salutary contrast to the extremes of well-being so characteristic of many economies at comparable levels of income, Russia now exhibits the tell-tale inequities that mark, for example, many Latin American economies. How accurate is this representation, both in its depiction of the situation pre-transition, let alone the consequences of recent changes? This paper is an attempt to answer these questions in as precise a manner as possible. The paper is organised as follows. Section 1 gives a brief description of the datasets — primarily the six rounds of a large household survey, the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) - that we use in this paper. Section 2 sets out the initial conditions that obtained in the Former Soviet Union and Russia and the picture that emerges from use of official statistics. These are shown to be seriously misleading in a number of key respects. Section 3 deals with the channels of redistribution that are likely to be present in the transition and surveys the evidence available from both aggregate data and firm-level information. In Section 4 the key channels are formalised in a two sector model of transition in which the reallocation of labour and capital across state and private sectors is seen as the determining feature of transition. The model is primarily concerned with labour allocation and hence can provide the paths of inequality and poverty over the transition primarily associated with labour income. Some simulations are presented which provide a set of simple benchmarks for understanding the size of likely effects from both within-sector inequality as also through restructuring and closure probabilities for state firms and the relative productivity of both state and private sectors. Section 5 turns to the empirical findings that emerge from a detailed look at the household surveys, including the factors driving the changes in inequality. Section 6 looks at how stable the transitions over the income distribution have been and, in particular, takes a closer look at groups of stable winners and losers. Section 7 turns to the measurement of poverty and the results that emerge from the household survey regarding both expenditure and income measured poverty. We also look at the characteristics of the poor. Section 8 concludes.

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Channels of Redistribution: Inequality and Poverty in the Russian Transition

This paper uses a unique new data set on manufacturing firms in Brazil and India to estimate production functions, augmented by information and communications technology (ICT). We find a strong positive association between ICT capital and productivity in both countries that is robust to several different specification tests. The paper also breaks new ground when using the Indian data to investigate the effect of the institutional and policy environment on ICT capital investment and productivity. We find that poorer infrastructure quality and labor market policy are associated with lower levels of ICT adoption, while poorer infrastructure is also associated with lower returns to investment.

ICT and Productivity in Developing Countries: New Firm-Level Evidence from Brazil and India

The ?beneficial brain drain? hypothesis suggests that skilled migration can be good for a sending countrybecause the incentives it creates for training increase that country?s supply of skilled labour. To work, thishypothesis requires that the degree of screening of migrants by the host country is limited and that thepossibility of migration actually encourages home country residents to obtain education. We studied theimplications of doctors? migration by conducting a survey among overseas doctors in the UK. The resultssuggest that the overseas doctors who come to the UK are carefully screened and that only a minority of doctorsfrom developing countries considered the possibility of migration when they chose to obtain medical education.The incentive effect is thus probably not large enough to increase the skills-supply in developing countries.Doctors do, however, remit income to their home countries and many intend to return after completing theirtraining in the UK, so there could be benefits via these routes.

Is the Medical Brain Drain Beneficial? Evidence from Overseas Doctors in the UK

Inequality has increased in many of the transition economies. At the same time, spending on education has declined. In this paper we survey the factors driving these changes. We then set up a small general equilibrium model to simulate the effect of different policy choices on the path of inequality over the transition. We show that the policies selected in Central Europe engender a relatively rapid spike in inequality but with a Kuznets curve. In the simulations that broadly capture features of the policy regime dominating in Russia and the FSU, we find no Kuznets curve. We then turn to the longer run and look at the way in which both trade liberalization and technological and organizational change are likely to affect the relative demand for types of labour. We show how substantial technological and organizational change - obvious features of transition - can result in raising inequality. Persistence in inequality can be expected to depend critically on the pace at which the acquisition of skills takes place in the economy - and, hence, on the evolution of the educational system. As such, policies aimed at raising adaptability - such as quality educational systems - can be expected to dampen the increase in wage inequality.

Simon Commander

Papers

The brain drain: curse or boon? A survey of the literature

Channels of Redistribution: Inequality and Poverty in the Russian Transition

ICT and Productivity in Developing Countries: New Firm-Level Evidence from Brazil and India

Is the Medical Brain Drain Beneficial? Evidence from Overseas Doctors in the UK

On the dynamics of inequality in the transition