Both polygenicity (many small genetic effects) and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification, can yield an inflated distribution of test statistics in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, current methods cannot distinguish between inflation from a true polygenic signal and bias. We have developed an approach, LD Score regression, that quantifies the contribution of each by examining the relationship between test statistics and linkage disequilibrium (LD). The LD Score regression intercept can be used to estimate a more powerful and accurate correction factor than genomic control. We find strong evidence that polygenicity accounts for the majority of the inflation in test statistics in many GWAS of large sample size.

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LD score regression distinguishes confounding from polygenicity in genome-wide association studies :

Application of the experimental design of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is now 10 years old (young), and here we review the remarkable range of discoveries it has facilitated in population and complex-trait genetics, the biology of diseases, and translation toward new therapeutics. We predict the likely discoveries in the next 10 years, when GWASs will be based on millions of samples with array data imputed to a large fully sequenced reference panel and on hundreds of thousands of samples with whole-genome sequencing data.

10 Years of GWAS Discovery: Biology, Function, and Translation

Levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and total cholesterol are heritable, modifiable risk factors for coronary artery disease. To identify new loci and refine known loci influencing these lipids, we examined 188,577 individuals using genome-wide and custom genotyping arrays. We identify and annotate 157 loci associated with lipid levels at P < 5 × 10(-8), including 62 loci not previously associated with lipid levels in humans. Using dense genotyping in individuals of European, East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry, we narrow association signals in 12 loci. We find that loci associated with blood lipid levels are often associated with cardiovascular and metabolic traits, including coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, waist-hip ratio and body mass index. Our results demonstrate the value of using genetic data from individuals of diverse ancestry and provide insights into the biological mechanisms regulating blood lipids to guide future genetic, biological and therapeutic research.

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Discovery and refinement of loci associated with lipid levels

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

Linear mixed models have attracted considerable attention recently as a powerful and effective tool for accounting for population stratification and relatedness in genetic association tests. However, existing methods for exact computation of standard test statistics are computationally impractical for even moderate-sized genome-wide association studies. To address this issue, several approximate methods have been proposed. Here, we present an efficient exact method, which we refer to as genome-wide efficient mixed-model association (GEMMA), that makes approximations unnecessary in many contexts. This method is approximately n times faster than the widely used exact method known as efficient mixed-model association (EMMA), where n is the sample size, making exact genome-wide association analysis computationally practical for large numbers of individuals.

Genome-wide efficient mixed-model analysis for association studies.

Although genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified numerous loci associated with complex traits, imprecise modeling of the genetic relatedness within study samples may cause substantial inflation of test statistics and possibly spurious associations. Variance component approaches, such as efficient mixed-model association (EMMA), can correct for a wide range of sample structures by explicitly accounting for pairwise relatedness between individuals, using high-density markers to model the phenotype distribution; but such approaches are computationally impractical. We report here a variance component approach implemented in publicly available software, EMMA eXpedited (EMMAX), that reduces the computational time for analyzing large GWAS data sets from years to hours. We apply this method to two human GWAS data sets, performing association analysis for ten quantitative traits from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort and seven common diseases from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. We find that EMMAX outperforms both principal component analysis and genomic control in correcting for sample structure.

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Sit Yee Kong

Papers

Variance component model to account for sample structure in genome-wide association studies