The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

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Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper Climate Change and Water draws together and evaluates the information in IPCC Assessment and Special Reports concerning the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources – their availability, quality, use and management. It takes into account current and projected regional key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and water. Its objectives are:

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Climate change and water.

An Introduction to MultiAgent Systems.

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

Operation of Hydrosystems under Uncertain Decision Making Environments

There are practical links between disaster risk management, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development leading to reduction of disaster risk and reenforcing resilience as a new development paradigm. There has been a noticeable change in the approaches to management of disasters, moving from disaster vulnerability to disaster resilience; the latter viewed as a more proactive and positive expression of community engagement with disaster risk management. Over the last 10 years, substantial progress has been made in establishing the role of resilience in sustainable development. Multiple case studies reveal links between attributes of resilience and the capacity of complex systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to maintain a certain level of functioning. There is a need to focus more on action-based resilience planning to strengthen local capacity and capability, with greater emphasis on community engagement and a better understanding of the diversity, needs, strengths, and vulnerabilities within communities. It is clear that the problems associated with sustainable human well-being call for a paradigm shift. Use of resilience as an appropriate matrix for investigation arises from the integral consideration of overlap between (1) physical environment (built and natural); (2) social dynamics; (3) metabolic flows; and (4) governance networks. This chapter provides an original systems framework for quantification of resilience. The framework is based on the definition of resilience as the ability of physical and social systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to continue functioning. The disturbance spatial and temporal characteristics depend on the direct interaction between impacts of disturbance (social, health, economic, and other) and adaptive capacity of the system to absorb disturbance. The methodology reported here can be implemented by various industries/companies/organizations (1) to quantify and compare different hazard response strategies and/or (2) to compare the performance of different industries/companies/organizations under similar hazard conditions. The implementation of the methodology is illustrated using dynamic resilience framework to compare various strategies and performance of different railway companies under disaster conditions.

From Risk Management to Quantitative Disaster Resilience: A New Paradigm for Catastrophe Modeling

This study presents an output updating procedure for the deterministic physically-based model of the Upper Thames River watershed, Ontario, Canada. In addition to streamflow and rainfall, this procedure uses as inputs meteorological variables not employed in the model calibration. The main hydrological processes involved in transformation of rainfall into runoff are mathematically expressed using a set of key variables. Therefore, some of the available meteorological variables may be of limited value during the calibration that predominantly relies on a large range of flow hydrographs for obtaining the optimum state variables and parameters of the model. In this study, the Bayesian regularisation neural network technique is coupled with the physically-based model to provide more accurate flood flow simulation for a wide range of flood flow event hydrographs pertinent to the hydrometeorological environment. The artificial neural network is capable of generating good generalisation results after complex input-output mapping.

Neural network approach to output updating for the physically-based model of the Upper Thames River watershed

This study addresses how uncertainty propagates within climate models, statistical postprocessing tools, and the hydrological model, while taking into account the observed forcing and respo

Understanding the Uncertainty of the Lim River Basin Response to Changing Climate

Dramatic changes are under way in the civil engineering workplace They are the result of society's development, the rapid growth of scientific and technological knowledge, and the increasing complexity of physical systems, among other factors A parallel has been drawn between the requirements of a changing profession and the exponential growth rate of technological knowledge A development of civil engineering practice can be described using three phases: (1) Rapid development (with an emphasis on design and construction): (2) slower development (consideration of more complex projects with an emphasis on planning and design); and (3) utilization of existing projects (with an emphasis on operation, preventive maintenance, and rehabilitation) Each phase is characterized by a certain level of technological knowledge Analytical tools and numerical procedures are logical choices for the first phase Systems analysis techniques are powerful tools to support the planning phase For further development, exper

Slobodan P. Simonovic

Papers

Operation of Hydrosystems under Uncertain Decision Making Environments

From Risk Management to Quantitative Disaster Resilience: A New Paradigm for Catastrophe Modeling

Neural network approach to output updating for the physically-based model of the Upper Thames River watershed

Understanding the Uncertainty of the Lim River Basin Response to Changing Climate

Challenges of the changing profession