The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics

In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

/pdf/a-review-of-global-precipitation-data-sets-data-sources-g1wm48baz7.pdf

A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

/pdf/an-assessment-of-earth-s-climate-sensitivity-using-multiple-3j85dsvdlb.pdf

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to
unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal
evolution allows detecting changes (e.g., acceleration) in one or more components. Study of
the sea level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as
the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the
World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled “Regional Sea Level and
Coastal Impacts”, an international effort involving the sea level community worldwide has
been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various data sets used to estimate
components of the sea level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These data sets
are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model
estimates and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying
sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various
applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about fifty
research teams/institutions worldwide (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-
level). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed
during 2017-2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average
rate of 3.1 +/- 0.3 mm/yr and acceleration of 0.1 mm/yr2 over 1993-present), as well as of the
different components of the sea level budget (http://doi.org/10.17882/54854). We further
examine closure of the sea level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with
the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica
contribute by 42%, 21%, 15% and 8% to the global mean sea level over the 1993-present. We
also study the sea level budget over 2005-present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates
instead of sum of individual mass components. Results show closure of the sea level budget
within 0.3 mm/yr. Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as
shown in examining individual mass contributions to sea level.

/pdf/global-sea-level-budget-1993-present-31pxjlun8i.pdf

Global sea-level budget 1993 - present

Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

/pdf/state-of-the-climate-in-2015-1lgxiudogr.pdf

State of the Climate in 2015

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) started the second Japanese global atmospheric reanalysis project named the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). It covers 55 years, extending back to 1958, when the global radiosonde observing system was established. Many of the deficiencies found in the first Japanese reanalysis, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25), have been improved. It aims at providing a comprehensive atmospheric dataset that is suitable for studies of climate change or multi-decadal variability, by producing a more time-consistent dataset for a longer period than JRA-25. Production of JRA-55 started in 2010, and computations for more than 16 years have been completed as of August 2011. The entire JRA-55 production will be completed in early 2013 and thereafter JRA-55 will be continued as a new JCDAS on real time basis. This paper is a brief report to introduce the JRA-55 reanalysis project. The data assimilation and prediction (DA) system used in JRA-55 is introduced and compared to that used in JRA-25. Early results of JRA-55 are presented and discussed, showing general improvements.

/pdf/the-japanese-55-year-reanalysis-jra-55-an-interim-report-1ytb39jzd1.pdf

Soichiro Yasui

Papers

The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis "JRA-55": An Interim Report

Accuracy of Global Upper Ocean Heat Content Estimation Expected from Present Observational Data Sets