Showing papers by "Stanley A. Changnon published in 2007"

Catastrophic winter storms: An escalating problem

Abstract: Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

Freezing rain events: a major weather hazard in the conterminous US

Abstract: Freezing rain (FZRA) is well documented as a major weather hazard, producing damage to structures, the environment, and humans, and delaying various operations such as transportation. Assessing the risk of freezing rain events requires information for various areas of the nation about the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events along with the associated weather conditions that affect the damage caused by freezing rain. This includes temperatures (dry and wet bulb), the amount of precipitation, and winds during freezing rain. The purpose of this work was to develop a national and regional climatology of freezing rain events in the US for the period of 1928–2001 to addresses these conditions.

Snowstorm Dimensions Across the Central and Eastern United States

Abstract: A comprehensive study of the 2,305 snowstorms occurring east of the U.S. Rockies during 1950-2000 was performed. The average size of the snowstorms was 107,380 km2 with a maximum one-storm value of 1,185,600 km2. Most were elliptical shaped and the average length was 568 km and average width was 171 km. The single-storm maximum length was 3,712 km and maximum width was 1,216 km. Snowstorms had three general shapes: elliptical (1,335 storms), irregular (750), and circular (220). Orientation of the major axis of most storms ranged from Southwest/Northeast to West/East. Three regions, the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the central Great Plains, had the highest incidence of snowstorms. The Rockies and Appalachians influenced the occurrence of 43% of all snowstorms, while 33% of all storms were influenced by the Great Lakes. Fifteen percent of all snowstorms had a maximum point snowfall amount of 50 cm or more. Storm size was found to explain 74% of the variability in the magnitude of snowstorm-related prop...

New risk assessment products for dealing with financial exposure to weather hazards

Abstract: A market place designed to provide a variety of weather-sensitive institutions with products for dealing with their risks from weather-climate hazards has been developing in recent years. Shifts in demographics, growing population, and greater wealth across the U.S., coupled with de-regulation of utilities and expansion of global economics, have increased corporate vulnerability to weather/climate extremes. Availability of long-term quality climate data and new technologies have allowed development of weather-risk products. One widely used by electric-gas utilities is weather derivatives. These allow a utility to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold and for a price paid to a provider, to get financial payments if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather risk models. These define the potential risks of severe weather losses across a region where little historical insured loss data exists. Firms develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. These various endeavors of the new weather market exhibit the potential for dealing with shifts in weather risks due to a change in climate.

Impacts of recent climate anomalies: losers and winners

Abstract: Climate anomalieS: impaCtS of ReCent loSeRS anD WinneRS Data/Case Study 2007-01 illinois State Water Survey a Division of the illinois Department of natural Resources and an affiliated agency of the university of illinois ABSTRACT This document focuses on the impacts from a wide variety of climate anomalies in the continental United States during 1985-2005, and for which there are good measurements of resulting societal, environmental, and economic impacts. Climate anomalies produce sizable losses, but some also benefit society and the environment in ways that often go unrecognized but persist for years. The last 20 years (1985-2005) are the first era with quality, in-depth studies of these impacts, particularly economic ones. Delineation of impacts from recent anomalies has applications in helping to assess impacts that future changes in climate could create. Most major businesses in the nation are highly climate sensitive, including agriculture, transportation, power generation, construction, and retail. This document should be useful and benefit the many sectors affected by climate anomalies, and also those who must make decisions relating to such conditions. The ten major climate anomalies during the 1985-2005 period were: Assessment of various impacts associated with the ten climate anomalies revealed several nonclimatic factors, as well as climate conditions, were responsible for the sizable economic losses from these recent climate extremes. One influential nonclimatic factor was related to the insurance industry and its poor handling of weather/climate losses in recent years. Several societal factors also played a significant role in recent sizable climate-caused losses. Population growth and often growing wealth have increased society's vulnerability to climate anomalies. Demographic changes have shifted the nation's population density to more weather-vulnerable locations. Flood and storm assessments further have revealed growing problems of an aging infrastructure across the nation. The economic impacts of the ten climate anomalies assessed herein totaled $258.7 billion in losses and $125.0 billion in gains (2006 dollars). Total gains represented 33 percent of the total economic impacts. Assuming the economic measures presented are reasonably correct, the economic impacts of the anomalies, plus findings from other climate impact studies, are useful inputs for estimating the impacts that a future climate change due to global warming may produce.