https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61729-2.pdf

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

This paper is the introduction to the forthcoming Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Measurement with Theory. The Guest Editors of the special issue are William A. Barnett, W. Erwin Diewert, Shigeru Iwata, and Arnold Zellner. The authors of this detailed introduction and commentary are William A. Barnett, W. Erwin Diewert, and Arnold Zellner. The included papers are part of a larger initiative to promote measurement with theory in economics.

Introduction to Measurement with Theory

Random forest and similar Machine Learning techniques are already used to generate spatial predictions, but spatial location of points (geography) is often ignored in the modeling process. Spatial auto-correlation, especially if still existent in the cross-validation residuals, indicates that the predictions are maybe biased, and this is suboptimal. This paper presents a random forest for spatial predictions framework (RFsp) where buffer distances from observation points are used as explanatory variables, thus incorporating geographical proximity effects into the prediction process. The RFsp framework is illustrated with examples that use textbook datasets and apply spatial and spatio-temporal prediction to numeric, binary, categorical, multivariate and spatiotemporal variables. Performance of the RFsp framework is compared with the state-of-the-art kriging techniques using fivefold cross-validation with refitting. The results show that RFsp can obtain equally accurate and unbiased predictions as different versions of kriging. Advantages of using RFsp over kriging are that it needs no rigid statistical assumptions about the distribution and stationarity of the target variable, it is more flexible towards incorporating, combining and extending covariates of different types, and it possibly yields more informative maps characterizing the prediction error. RFsp appears to be especially attractive for building multivariate spatial prediction models that can be used as "knowledge engines" in various geoscience fields. Some disadvantages of RFsp are the exponentially growing computational intensity with increase of calibration data and covariates and the high sensitivity of predictions to input data quality. The key to the success of the RFsp framework might be the training data quality-especially quality of spatial sampling (to minimize extrapolation problems and any type of bias in data), and quality of model validation (to ensure that accuracy is not effected by overfitting). For many data sets, especially those with lower number of points and covariates and close-to-linear relationships, model-based geostatistics can still lead to more accurate predictions than RFsp.

Random Forest as a generic framework for predictive modeling of spatial and spatio-temporal variables

Living cells continually generate reactive oxygen species (ROS) through the respiratory chain during energetic metabolism. ROS at low or moderate concentration can play important physiological roles. However, an excessive amount of ROS under oxidative stress would be extremely deleterious. The central nervous system (CNS) is particularly vulnerable to oxidative stress due to its high oxygen consumption, weakly antioxidative systems and the terminal-differentiation characteristic of neurons. Thus, oxidative stress elicits various neurodegenerative diseases. In addition, chemotherapy could result in severe side effects on the CNS and peripheral nervous system (PNS) of cancer patients, and a growing body of evidence demonstrates the involvement of ROS in drug-induced neurotoxicities as well. Therefore, development of antioxidants as neuroprotective drugs is a potentially beneficial strategy for clinical therapy. In this review, we summarize the source, balance maintenance and physiologic functions of ROS, oxidative stress and its toxic mechanisms underlying a number of neurodegenerative diseases, and the possible involvement of ROS in chemotherapy-induced toxicity to the CNS and PNS. We ultimately assess the value for antioxidants as neuroprotective drugs and provide our comments on the unmet needs.

https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/14/12/24438/pdf

Oxidative Stress and Neurodegenerative Disorders

Objective The impact of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) on disability remains poorly understood. The World Health Organization’s integrative model of human functioning and disability in the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) makes disability assessment possible. The ICF is a hierarchical coding system with four levels of details that includes over 1400 categories. The aim of this study was to develop the first disability index for IBD by selecting most relevant ICF categories that are affected by IBD. Methods Relevant ICF categories were identified through four preparatory studies (systematic literature review, qualitative study, expert survey and crosssectional study), which were presented at a consensus conference. Based on the identified ICF categories, a questionnaire to be filled in by clinicians, called the ‘IBD disability index’, was developed. Results The four preparatory studies identified 138 second-level categories: 75 for systematic literature review (153 studies), 38 for qualitative studies (six focus groups; 27 patients), 108 for expert survey (125 experts; 37 countries; seven occupations) and 98 for crosssectional study (192 patients; three centres). The consensus conference (20 experts; 17 countries) led to the selection of 19 ICF core set categories that were used to develop the IBD disability index: seven on body functions, two on body structures, five on activities and participation and five on environmental factors. Conclusions The IBD disability index is now available. It will be used in studies to evaluate the long-term effect of IBD on patient functional status and will serve as a new endpoint in disease-modification trials.

https://gut.bmj.com/content/gutjnl/61/2/241.full.pdf

Development of the first disability index for inflammatory bowel disease based on the international classification of functioning, disability and health

This article focuses on what some sceptics see as disillusionment with conventional evaluation practice, in that many governments experience only limited use of evaluation findings.This has contributed to a significant increase in results-based performance measurement. Yet not everyone in the evaluation community welcomes this development.The authors make the point that significant complementarities exist between evaluation and performance measurement and therefore the boundaries between these practices may need to be redefined. In other words, evaluators will need to enter into a constructive dialogue with performance management practitioners. By investigating their methodological similarities and differences, the authors argue that evaluation studies and performance measurement are highly complementary forms of knowledge production. Finally, they argue that evaluation tools may in fact strengthen a number of the identified shortcomings of performance measurement systems when applied in performance manag...

Improving Performance? Exploring the Complementarities between Evaluation and Performance Management

Evaluation capacity building (ECB) has become an area in the evaluation field that is attracting both scholarly attention and the practical work of evaluators. Despite some recent contributions, differing conceptions still exist concerning what constitutes ECB, let alone the nature of the capacity being built. Responding to an earlier call on the need for conceptual clarity regarding evaluation capacity (EC), this article discusses a model and a measurement tool used to map EC in Danish public sector organizations. Using empirical evidence as its basis, this article discusses the strengths and limitations of the conceptual model in relation to its face, content, and construct validity. Finally, the article discusses the implications arising from empirical findings and recent theoretical developments and suggests potential steps for improving conceptual clarity in the future.

Measuring Evaluation Capacity—Results and Implications of a Danish Study:

This article examines the methodological strengths and weaknesses of contribution analysis. The authors contend that a salient characteristic of contribution analysis is its accounting for influencing factors and alternative explanations. We argue that contribution analysis in its current form needs further methodological and practical elaboration in this respect. Therefore, this article pays particular attention to how the methodology can identify and determine the extent of influencing factors and alternative explanations. The authors propose a corresponding framework – the Relevant Explanation Finder – which can help evaluators account for these elements and thereby create more credible contribution stories.

Making contribution analysis work: A practical framework for handling influencing factors and alternative explanations

For some time now, evaluators have been trying to locate their work in relation to the emergence of performance management. Although some have rejected performance management outright as conceptually weak and simplistic, others have looked for complementarities between the two approaches to generating knowledge. The authors address these concerns and identify the emergence of complementarity below the broad constructs of evaluation and performance management writ large, instead seeing it as inhering in the approaches to measurement and monitoring employed by practitioners of these disciplines, respectively. This chapter elucidates performance management and the six key elements it requires: leaders, managers, accountability systems, performance budgeting, measuring and monitoring, and evaluation. It also indicates some of the major concerns evaluators have raised regarding the validity of knowledge produced within performance-management approaches that do not rely on evaluations. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc., and the American Evaluation Association.

Performance Management and Evaluation: Exploring Complementarities

This chapter outlines the development of performance monitoring and program evaluation at the federal level of the government of Canada. This approach stands out, as it has had a dual emphasis on both monitoring and evaluation as complementary forms of knowledge production. However, throughout its history emphases on management and accountability have shifted. The authors argue that to fulfill its potential to support results-based management the Canadian government must adopt a more stable, balanced, and strategic approach to both performance monitoring and program evaluation. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc., and the American Evaluation Association.

Steffen Bohni Nielsen

Papers

Improving Performance? Exploring the Complementarities between Evaluation and Performance Management

Measuring Evaluation Capacity—Results and Implications of a Danish Study:

Making contribution analysis work: A practical framework for handling influencing factors and alternative explanations

Performance Management and Evaluation: Exploring Complementarities

Rethinking the Relationship Among Monitoring, Evaluation, and Results-Based Management: Observations From Canada