Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures.

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Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

Climate warming affects permafrost soil carbon pools in two opposing ways: enhanced vegetation growth leads to higher carbon inputs to the soil, whereas permafrost melting accelerates decomposition and hence carbon release. Here, we study the spatial and temporal dynamics of these two processes under scenarios of climate change and evaluate their influence on the carbon balance of the permafrost zone. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, which simulates plant physiological and ecological processes and includes a newly developed discrete layer energy balance permafrost module and a vertical carbon distribution within the soil layer. The model is able to reproduce the interactions between vegetation and soil carbon dynamics as well as to simulate dynamic permafrost changes resulting from changes in the climate. We find that vegetation responds more rapidly to warming of the permafrost zone than soil carbon pools due to long time lags in permafrost thawing, and that the initial simulated net uptake of carbon may continue for some decades of warming. However, once the turning point is reached, if carbon release exceeds uptake, carbon is lost irreversibly from the system and cannot be compensated for by increasing vegetation carbon input. Our analysis highlights the importance of including dynamic vegetation and long-term responses into analyses of permafrost zone carbon budgets.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026/pdf

Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget

A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves by 2030. Our analysis indicates that these targets can be achieved with additional investment of US$200565‐86 billion per year until 2030 combined with dedicated policies. Only a combination of policies that lowers costs for modern cooking fuels and stoves, along with more rapid electrification, can enable the realization of these goals. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of accounting for varying demands and affordability across heterogeneous household groups in both analysis and policy setting. While the investments required are significant, improved access to modern cooking fuels alone can avert between 0.6 and 1.8 million premature deaths annually in 2030 and enhance wellbeing substantially.

/pdf/pathways-to-achieve-universal-household-access-to-modern-5dtasigdth.pdf

Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030

The focus of land-use related efforts in developing countries to reduce carbon emissions has been on slowing deforestation, yet international agreements are to reduce emissions from both deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The second ‘D’ is poorly understood and accounted for a number of technical and policy reasons. Here we introduce a complete accounting method for estimating emission factors from selective timber harvesting, a substantial form of forest degradation in many tropical developing countries. The method accounts separately for emissions from the extracted log, from incidental damage to the surrounding forest, and from logging infrastructure, and emissions are expressed as units of carbon per cubic meter of timber extracted to allow for simple application to timber harvesting statistics. We applied the method in six tropical countries (Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Guyana, Indonesia, and Republic of Congo), resulting in total emission factors of 0:99‐2:33 Mg C m 3 . In all cases, emissions were dominated by damage to surrounding vegetation and the infrastructure rather than the logs themselves, and total emissions represented about 3‐15% of the biomass carbon stocks of the associated unlogged forests. We then combined the emission factors with country level logging statistics for nine key timber producing countries represented by our study areas to gain an understanding of the order of magnitude of emissions from degradation compared to those recently reported for deforestation in the same countries. For the nine countries included, emissions from logging were on average equivalent to about 12% of those from deforestation. For those nine countries with relatively low emissions from deforestation, emissions from logging were equivalent to half or more of those from deforestation, whereas for those countries with the highest emissions from deforestation, emissions from logging were equivalent to <10% of those from deforestation. Understanding how to account emissions and the magnitude of each emissions source resulting from tropical timber harvesting practices helps identify where there are opportunities to reduce emissions from the second ‘D’ in REDD.

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Carbon emissions from tropical forest degradation caused by logging

Mariculture (marine aquaculture) generates nutrient waste either through the excretion by the reared organisms, or through direct enrichment by, or remineralization of, externally applied feed inputs. Importantly, the waste from fish or shellfish cannot easily be managed, as most is in dissolved form and released directly to the aquatic environment. The release of dissolved and particulate nutrients by intensive mariculture results in increasing nutrient loads (finfish and crustaceans), and changes in nutrient stoichiometry (all mariculture types). Based on different scenarios, we project that nutrients from mariculture will increase up to six fold by 2050 with exceedance of the nutrient assimilative capacity in parts of the world where mariculture growth is already rapid. Increasing nutrient loads and altered nutrient forms (increased availability of reduced relative to oxidized forms of nitrogen) and/or stoichiometric proportions (altered nitrogen:phosphorus ratios) may promote an increase in harmful algal blooms (HABs) either directly or via stimulation of algae on which mixotrophic HABs may feed. HABs can kill or intoxicate the mariculture product with severe economic losses, and can increase risks to human health.

/pdf/mariculture-significant-and-expanding-cause-of-coastal-2b5bf48q5l.pdf

Mariculture: significant and expanding cause of coastal nutrient enrichment

Over the past 50 years a comprehensive regulatory framework for radioactive substances in the UK has been progressively introduced, important initial milestones being the white paper Cmnd 884 and the Radioactive Substances Act 1960. During the 1970s and 1980s there were a succession of enquiries and white papers which developed from the growing awareness of the problems of the nuclear waste legacy. This was followed by a comprehensive policy white paper in 1995: Cm 2919. In 1990, 1993, 1995 and 2005 some aspects of the 1960 Act were updated. The most recent, and most radical, modernisation took place in 2010, when the Act was incorporated into the Environmental Permitting Regulations, in England and Wales. Currently a major review of the exemption orders and exclusion criteria under the radioactive substances legislation is close to completion, which will complete the current phase of modernisation of the regulatory framework.

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Radioactive waste policy and legislation: 50 years on from the 1960 Act.

A new radioactive substances regulatory regime came into effect across the UK on 1 October 2011, accompanied by Government and regulator's guidance. The legislation sets new activity thresholds for what is within its scope and for what is exempt from the permitting requirements. These thresholds are, for the first time, clearly based on the levels in the Basic Safety Standards Directive; distinguish between NORM industrial activities and practices; and are derived from different dose constraints. There are new exemption provisions for NORM, aqueous liquids and gaseous wastes.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0952-4746/34/1/161/pdf

Steve Chandler

Papers

Radioactive waste policy and legislation: 50 years on from the 1960 Act.

Radioactive substances legislative amendments in the UK: concepts employed in the development of the new exclusion and exemption regime.