Context: Software development effort estimation (SDEE) is the process of predicting the effort required to develop a software system. In order to improve estimation accuracy, many researchers have proposed machine learning (ML) based SDEE models (ML models) since 1990s. However, there has been no attempt to analyze the empirical evidence on ML models in a systematic way. Objective: This research aims to systematically analyze ML models from four aspects: type of ML technique, estimation accuracy, model comparison, and estimation context. Method: We performed a systematic literature review of empirical studies on ML model published in the last two decades (1991-2010). Results: We have identified 84 primary studies relevant to the objective of this research. After investigating these studies, we found that eight types of ML techniques have been employed in SDEE models. Overall speaking, the estimation accuracy of these ML models is close to the acceptable level and is better than that of non-ML models. Furthermore, different ML models have different strengths and weaknesses and thus favor different estimation contexts. Conclusion: ML models are promising in the field of SDEE. However, the application of ML models in industry is still limited, so that more effort and incentives are needed to facilitate the application of ML models. To this end, based on the findings of this review, we provide recommendations for researchers as well as guidelines for practitioners.

http://romisatriawahono.net/lecture/rm/survey/software%20engineering/Software%20Cost%20Effort%20Estimation/Wen%20-%20software%20development%20effort%20estimation%20models%20-%202012.pdf

Systematic literature review of machine learning based software development effort estimation models

http://web.nchu.edu.tw/pweb/users/arborfish/lesson/10489.pdf

Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

This paper summarizes the current state of the art and recent trends in software engineering economics. It provides an overview of economic analysis techniques and their applicability to software engineering and management. It surveys the field of software cost estimation, including the major estimation techniques available, the state of the art in algorithmic cost models, and the outstanding research issues in software cost estimation.

Software engineering economics

A predictive model is required to be accurate and comprehensible in order to inspire confidence in a business setting. Both aspects have been assessed in a software effort estimation setting by previous studies. However, no univocal conclusion as to which technique is the most suited has been reached. This study addresses this issue by reporting on the results of a large scale benchmarking study. Different types of techniques are under consideration, including techniques inducing tree/rule-based models like M5 and CART, linear models such as various types of linear regression, nonlinear models (MARS, multilayered perceptron neural networks, radial basis function networks, and least squares support vector machines), and estimation techniques that do not explicitly induce a model (e.g., a case-based reasoning approach). Furthermore, the aspect of feature subset selection by using a generic backward input selection wrapper is investigated. The results are subjected to rigorous statistical testing and indicate that ordinary least squares regression in combination with a logarithmic transformation performs best. Another key finding is that by selecting a subset of highly predictive attributes such as project size, development, and environment related attributes, typically a significant increase in estimation accuracy can be obtained.

Data Mining Techniques for Software Effort Estimation: A Comparative Study

Integration of the grey relational analysis with genetic algorithm for software effort estimation

http://amiragha.persiangig.com/document/An%20empirical%20analysis%20of%20risk%20components%20and%20performance.pdf

Sun-Jen Huang

Papers

An empirical analysis of risk components and performance on software projects

The adjusted analogy-based software effort estimation based on similarity distances

An empirical analysis of the impact of software development problem factors on software maintainability