Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

Risk based methodology for safety improvements in ports.

This research aims to propose a Risk Management (RM) framework and develop a generic risk-based model for dealing with potential hazards and risk factors associated with offshore terminals' and marine ports' operations and management. Hazard identification was conducted through an appropriate literature review of major risk factors of these logistic infrastructures. As a result in the first phase of this research a Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchal Process (FAHP) method was used for determining the relative weights of the risk factors identified via the literature review. This has led to the development of a generic risk -based model which can help related industrial professionals and risk managers assess the risk factors and develop appropriate strategies to take preventive/corrective actions for mitigation purposes, with a view of maintaining efficient offshore terminals' and marine ports' operations and management. In the second phase of the research the developed risk-based model incorporating Fuzzy Set Theory (FST), an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and the IDS software were used to evaluate the risk levels of different ports in real situations using a case study. The IDS software based on an ER approach was used to aggregate the previously determined relative weights of the risk factors with the new evaluation results of risk levels for the real ports. The third phase of the research made use of the Cause and Consequence Analysis (CCA) including the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) under a fuzzy environment, to analyse in detail the most significant risk factors determined from the first phase of the research, using appropriate case-studies. In the fourth phase of the research an individual RM strategy was tailored and implemented on the most significant risk factor identified previously. In the last phase of the research and in order to complete the RM cycle, the best mitigation strategies were introduced and evaluated in the form of ideal solutions for mitigating the identified risk factors. All methods used in this research have quantitative and qualitative nature. Expert judgements carried out for gathering the required information accounted for the majority of data collected. The proposed RM framework can be a useful method for managers and auditors when conducting their RM programmes in the offshore and marine industries. The novelty of this research can help the Quality, Health, Safety, Environment and Security (QHSES) managers, insurers and risk managers in the offshore and marine industries investigate the potential hazards more appropriately if there is uncertainty of data sources. In this research with considering strategic management approaches to RM development the proposed RM framework and risk based model contribute to knowledge by developing and evaluating an effective methodology for future use of the RM professionals.

Advanced risk management in offshore terminals and marine ports

This paper demonstrates that wave height forecasters chosen on statistical quality metrics result in sub-optimal decision support for offshore wind farm maintenance. Offshore access is constrained by wave height, but the majority of approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of a wave height forecaster utilize overall accuracy or error rates. This paper introduces a new metric more appropriate to the wind industry, which considers the economic impact of an incorrect forecast above or below critical wave height boundaries. The paper describes a process for constructing a value criteria where the implications between forecasting error and economic consequences are explicated in terms of opportunity costs and realized maintenance costs. A comparison between nine forecasting techniques for modeling and predicting wave heights based on historical data, including an ensemble aggregator, is described demonstrating that the performance ranking of forecasters is sensitive to the evaluation criteria. The results highlight the importance of appropriate metrics for wave height prediction specific to the wind industry, and the limitations of current models that minimize a metric that does not support decision making. With improved ability to forecast weather windows, maintenance scheduling is subject to less uncertainty, hence reducing costs related to vessel dispatch, and lost energy due to downtime.

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An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access

Risk Assessment Tools for Use During Fabrication of Offshore Structures and in Marine Operations Projects

This paper describes the development and application of a quantitative method for the assessment of risk of asset loss due to structural damage during the construction through to installation phases of an offshore concrete gravity-base structure. Risk criteria, embodying the ‘ALARP’ principle, are developed for different degrees of platform damage, expressed as asset loss. Initiating events leading to possibly significant failure modes are identified and quantified, mostly using fault trees. Much of the effort has gone into identifying and quantifying human error frequencies, including those for recovery failure, based on detailed scrutiny of the operations and established human factors methodologies. Outcome modelling for the initiating events uses an event tree approach, and the detail in the consequence modelling, e.g. for modelling of structural damage, is commensurate with the expected risk as identified in a ‘first pass’ analysis. Risk-reduction measures are targeted at dominant risk contributors, whose principal determinants can be identified from the fault trees. The application of the method to the analysis and mitigation of dropped-object risks during certain construction phases of the platform is described.

T. Gudmestad

Papers

Methodology for the analysis of risks during the construction and installation phases of an offshore platform