世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision: Estimation and projection methodology

New Structural Economics A Framework For Rethinking Development And Policy

World development report 2013: jobs

This is the Preliminary Version for a book expected in November 2019. This book documents frontier knowledge on the drivers of agriculture productivity to derive pragmatic policy advice for governments and development partners on reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The analysis describes global trends and long-term sources of total factor productivity growth, along with broad trends in partial factor productivity for land and labor, revisiting the question of scale economies in farming. Technology is central to growth in agricultural productivity, yet across many parts of the developing world, readily available technology is never taken up. We investigate demand-side constraints of the technology equation to analyze factors that might influence producers, particularly poor producers, to adopt modern technology. Agriculture and food systems are rapidly transforming, characterized by shifting food preferences, the rise and growing sophistication of value chains, the increasing globalization of agriculture, and the expanding role of the public and private sectors in bringing about efficient and more rapid productivity growth. In light of this transformation, the analysis focuses on the supply side of the technology equation, exploring how the enabling environment and regulations related to trade and intellectual property rights stimulate Research and Development to raise productivity. The book also discusses emerging developments in modern value chains that contribute to rising productivity. This book is the fourth volume of the World Bank Productivity Project, which seeks to bring frontier thinking on the measurement and determinants of productivity to global policy makers.

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Harvesting Prosperity: Technology and Productivity Growth in Agriculture

Sub-Saharan Africa has just experienced one of the best decades of growth since the 1960s. Between 2000 and 2012, gross domestic product (GDP) grew more than 4.5 percent a year on average, compared to around 2 percent in the prior 20 years (World Bank various years). In 2012, the region’s GDP growth was estimated at 4.7 percent—5.8 percent if South Africa is excluded (World Bank 2013). About one-quarter of countries in the region grew at 7 percent or better, and several African countries are among the fastest growing in the world. Medium-term growth prospects remain strong and should be supported by a rebounding global economy. At the same time, many Africans are dissatisfied with this economic progress. According to the latest Afrobarometer data, 65 percent of the surveyed population consider economic conditions in their country to be the same or worse than the year prior, 53 percent rate their national economic condition as “very bad” or “fairly bad,” and 48 percent say the same about their personal economic condition (Afrobarometer 2011–12. www.afrobarometer.org). The incidence of poverty has fallen as SubSaharan economies have expanded, yet overall growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has not been as pro-poor as growth in other regions. Each 1 percent increase in average per capita consumption has been associated with a reduction in poverty of 0.69 percent; elsewhere in the world, that reduction has averaged just over 2 percent (World Bank 2013). In part, Africa’s poverty reduction has been less marked because in many countries the source of growth is primarily oil, gas, and mineral extraction, not labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture or manufacturing. Young people, who have weaker links to the world of work than the general population, are therefore doubly disadvantaged. Although the current generation of Africans entering the labor force is the most educated ever, many are finding that their prospects for employment and earnings differ very little from those of their parents. In a few countries, they are worse. Youth in urban areas have been vocal about their dissatisfaction. Urban demonstrations

Overview: Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Although small (around 16 percent of the labor force), the wage employment sector represents Africa’s engine for employment and growth in the medium to long term, especially given the sector’s potential to exploit economies of scale and produce for export. Yet wage employment is growing unevenly across Africa. Modern manufacturing firms, in particular, account for only 3 percent of employment and export very little. This limited competitiveness in export markets is mainly the result of low productivity in the modern wage sector. It signals the presence of government and market failures, which vary across the subcontinent but have similar effects. Complementary inputs to labor (electricity, overland transport, and so on) are costly, regulations strangle business processes and the movement of goods, the high costs of financial intermediation starve investors of capital, and the small domestic markets and trade barriers suppress competition and reduce pressure to innovate and improve productivity. Governments in Africa can do much to remedy this situation. The most important step is to improve the business climate through key reforms to improve access to finance and infrastructure services, improve trade logistics, and ease regulatory constraints to entrepreneurship. Many reforms are not so expensive in monetary terms and can deliver huge impacts in the short run by reducing distortions and increasing efficiency. Selective and spatially targeted support to emerging clusters can promote agglomeration economies. For young people to be truly productive in modern firms, governments should foster a strong foundation in basic skills by improving the quality of general education. In the training sector, governments should focus on “public goods” such as quality assurance and information to foster a sector that is efficient and relevant to the market for skills. Programs for disadvantaged youth that integrate training with internships show promise, as do programs offering managerial training.

Raising Productivity in Africa’s Modern Wage Enterprises to Foster Job Growth for Youth

Two trends are converging in Africa, with potentially profound effects on how Africa’s economy will grow and where it will create jobs. First, Africa’s economies, spurred by high prices for primary export commodities, are growing again after a hiatus of many decades. Output is shifting out of agriculture and largely into services, and employment is shifting slowly toward services. The second trend is that Africa’s rapidly growing population will constitute the world’s largest reservoir of working-age individuals for generations to come, and the majority of this population will be young. These trends mean that the structure of employment will continue to change in Africa, but the transformation will be slow. Africa stands to gain economically, socially, and substantially from channeling the energy of its young labor force into more productive employment. The challenge is large and demands immediate attention, but it can be met. Industry—especially export manufacturing—has been a vibrant source of wage jobs in other regions, most notably East Asia. In Africa, industry is in the very early stages of development. It needs time and the right policy environment to grow. Governments must also focus on tapping the more immediate potential for productive employment in agriculture and household enterprises. This report assesses the specific challenges and opportunities related to youth employment on farms, in nonfarm household enterprises, and in modern wage jobs. It examines these issues and possible interventions in light of two types of binding constraints to higher productivity for young people in those sectors: constraints related to human capital and constraints related to the business environment.

Taye Mengistae

Papers

Overview: Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Raising Productivity in Africa’s Modern Wage Enterprises to Foster Job Growth for Youth

Opportunities and Challenges for Youth Employment in Africa

Agriculture as a Sector of Opportunity for Young Africans

Youth: A Time of Transitions