This paper proposes and demonstrates the integration of manufacturing and production considerations with traditional aircraft design metrics to support affordability-based design. To enable the necessary multi-disciplinary trades, a digital thread approach is proposed that integrates detailed models and analyses. The digital thread refers to linking models from various disciplines through common inputs and data flows with the goal of speeding design time and enabling trades across traditionally isolated disciplines. When used within an overarching design process, the production cost, rate, and efficiencies of non-conventional designs in variable demand environments can be quantified and traded early in the design process. In particular, the methodology is demonstrated using a wingbox design problem such that aircraft performance considerations, production rate, manufacturing cost, and financial planning metrics can be traded within a parametric, visual trade-off environment. The environment, combined with a multi-objective optimization routine, facilitates effective affordability-based tradespace exploration during the early stages of the design of non-traditional aircraft (e.g., those utilizing composite structures) under demand variability. An F-86 Sabre redesigned wingbox using three separate manufacturing concepts is used as a proof-of-concept for this research.

A digital thread approach to support manufacturing-influenced conceptual aircraft design

: Acquiring defense systems in the face of urgent needs, budget challenges, and scarce resources drives the need for designing affordable systems by anticipating uncertain futures and related mission volatility. Despite recent strategies to mandate designing for affordability as a requirement in acquisition management, current processes for performing early lifecycle affordability tradeoffs remain underdeveloped. Methods for exploring design tradespaces have matured but have lacked specific focus on evaluating affordability. Affordability tradeoffs have also largely been limited to static tradeoffs of systems in current operating environments, or in single point futures. Given that systems exist in a dynamic and uncertain world, designing for affordability necessitates a method capable of evaluating systems across many possible alternative futures. A new method that leverages both Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration and Epoch-Era Analysis is proposed to augment current practices in designing for affordability. This method can be applied to the evaluation of system concepts across multiple epochs (periods of fixed context and needs) and multiple eras (ordered sequences of epochs) and uses the Multi-Attribute Expense metric to provide a measure for aggregate costs and schedule considerations. This paper presents interim research outcomes of an ongoing research project, demonstrating the viability of the approach with a case study.

Enabling Design for Affordability: An Epoch-Era Analysis Approach

/pdf/practical-methods-for-optimizing-equipment-maintenance-2kxh3tcxoe.pdf

Practical Methods for Optimizing Equipment Maintenance Strategies Using an Analytic Hierarchy Process and Prognostic Algorithms

Abstract : Acquiring defense systems in the face of urgent needs, budget challenges and scarce resources drives the need for greater process efficiency, placing focus on designing for affordability as a requirement. While there is progress, an efficient process for early lifecycle affordability tradeoff that takes uncertainty into account is lacking. Methods for exploring design tradespaces have matured, but largely fall short in evaluating/selecting resilient system concepts, meaning affordably adaptable under uncertain futures. Affordability tradeoffs are possible, but limited to tradeoffs for current operating environments or single point futures. As such, it?s not possible to truly evaluate system concepts for resiliency since this necessitates evaluation across many alternative futures that may unfold differently. A recently developed approach, Epoch-Era Analysis, provides the ability to evaluate system concepts for both multiple epochs (periods of fixed context and needs) and eras (ordered sequences of epochs). This research has demonstrated usefulness of Epoch-Era Analysis in time-related affordability tradeoffs, with concurrent consideration of affordability with other key decision criteria, such as performance uncertainty. Short-run and long-run impacts of decisions in the face of temporally unfolding uncertainties are explicitly addressed by encapsulating key uncertainty factors into epochs and eras. A beta-level affordability tradeoff method with case application has been developed in this one-year research study.

Program and Portfolio Affordability Tradeoffs Under Uncertainty Using Epoch-Era Analysis

Cost escalation for many complex defence equipment is arguably not sustainable. Customer driven requirements have led to an exponential increase in costs by pushing frontiers of technology to suppo...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10242694.2020.1733896

Affordability Aspects in the Development of Defence Equipment : Case Studies of Concept Generation in the Defence Industry

This paper examines how best to determine the contextual and dynamic attributes of an affordable system. The complexity of the problem cannot be overstated. The affordability trade space is composed of a relational set of attributes that are contextually sensitive; once this set is bounded, the need arises for an implicit comparison to other systems, sub-systems and components. The problem may be embedded in how systems are designed, how they are governed, and how they are evolved. Considerations are provided to help resolve the complexities involved in identifying and evaluating what an affordable system is.



Most of the existing literature is focused on cost comparison or performance comparison of systems separately; the literature which addresses a perspective of how cost and capability of systems can be integrated is found under the disciplines of Cost as an Independent Variable (CAIV) and Value Engineering (VE), but appears insufficient in providing an encompassing framework in which to develop a design for affordability trade space. Both of these disciplines may not adequately address the life cycle or temporal dimensions of systems.



To address this deficiency, INCOSE and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) have worked to define affordability, and identify related concerns, through ongoing working groups since late 2009. Both organizations have developed definitions for use in this context. Even though affordability has been defined by NDIA, INCOSE and Military Operations Research Society (MORS), in discussions at the recent MORS Special Meeting on Affordability Analysis – How do we do it? (Oct.2012), the Development Planning Working Group discovered that affordability analysis was contextually-sensitive, often leading to misunderstanding and fragmented perspectives. Various industry working groups have recommended developing and formalizing affordability analysis processes, including recognizing the difference between cost and affordability analyses… Key insights include the need to consistently define an affordability context, and establish a framework for the appropriate analytic process. They also have determined that accountability for affordability needs to be assigned across the life cycle.



System Engineers must understand that the affordability trade space is fluid, an ever changing set of boundaries that evolve as mission needs evolve, and recognize that any affordable solution is essentially a “snapshot” within that trade space at any point in the life of the system.

Terry Mitchell

Papers

4.6.1 Affordability Considerations: Cost Effective Capability