This chapter focuses on the estimation and interpretation of gravity equations for bilateral trade. This necessarily involves a careful consideration of the theoretical underpinnings since it has become clear that naive approaches to estimation lead to biased and frequently misinterpreted results. There are now several theory-consistent estimation methods and we argue against sole reliance on any one method and instead advocate a toolkit approach. One estimator may be preferred for certain types of data or research questions but more often the methods should be used in concert to establish robustness. In recent years, estimation has become just a first step before a deeper analysis of the implications of the results, notably in terms of welfare. We try to facilitate diffusion of best-practice methods by illustrating their application in a step-by-step cookbook mode of exposition.

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Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook

Micro-level data have had a profound influence on research in inter national trade over the last ten years. In many regards, this research agenda has been very successful. New stylized facts have been uncovered and new trade models have been developed to explain these facts. In this paper we investigate to what extent answers to new micro-level questions have affected answers to an old and central question in the field: how large are the welfare gains from trade? A crude summary of our results is: “So far, not much.” (JEL

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New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?

This chapter discusses how applied researchers in corporate finance can address endogeneity concerns. We begin by reviewing the sources of endogeneity—omitted variables, simultaneity, and measurement error—and their implications for inference. We then discuss in detail a number of econometric techniques aimed at addressing endogeneity problems, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences estimators, regression discontinuity design, matching methods, panel data methods, and higher order moments estimators. The unifying themes of our discussion are the emphasis on intuition and the applications to corporate finance.

/pdf/endogeneity-in-empirical-corporate-finance1-obm7n5t71j.pdf

Endogeneity in Empirical Corporate Finance1

This paper estimates the productivity gains from reducing tariffs on final goods and from reducing tariffs on intermediate inputs. Lower output tariffs can increase productivity by inducing tougher import competition, whereas cheaper imported inputs can raise productivity via learning, variety, and quality effects. We use Indonesian manufacturing census data from 1991 to 2001, which include plant-level information on imported inputs. The results show that a 10 percentage point fall in input tariffs leads to a productivity gain of 12 percent for firms that import their inputs, at least twice as high as any gains from reducing output tariffs. (JEL F12, F13, L16, O14, O19, O24)

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Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia ∗

Using individual-level data on homeowner debt and defaults from 1997 to 2008, we show that borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners is responsible for a significant fraction of both the rise in U.S. household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. Employing land topology-based housing supply elasticity as an instrument for house price growth, we estimate that the average homeowner extracts 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. Home equity-based borrowing is stronger for younger households, households with low credit scores, and households with high initial credit card utilization rates. Money extracted from increased home equity is not used to purchase new real estate or pay down high credit card balances, which suggests that borrowed funds may be used for real outlays. Lower credit quality households living in high house price appreciation areas experience a relative decline in default rates from 2002 to 2006 as they borrow heavily against their home equity, but experience very high default rates from 2006 to 2008. Our conservative estimates suggest that home equity-based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt, and accounts for at least 39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008.

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House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis

The gravity equation in international trade is one of the most robust empirical finding in economics: bilateral trade between two countries is proportional to size, measured by GDP, and inversely proportional to the geographic distance between them. While the role of size is well understood, the role of distance remains a mystery. I propose the first explanation for the gravity equation in international trade, based on the emergence of a stable network of input-output linkages between firms. Over time, a firm acquires more suppliers and customers, which tend to be further away. I show that if, as observed empirically, (i) the distribution of firm sizes is well approximated by Zipfs law and (ii) larger firms export over longer distances on average, then aggregate trade is inversely proportional to distance. Data on firm level, sectoral, and aggregate trade support further predictions of the model.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/DP9613.pdf?abstractid=2319938&mirid=3

Thomas Chaney

Papers

The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation