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The Vegetation of Wisconsin: An Ordination of Plant Communities.

From coastal wilderness to fruited plain

Many ecological phenomena combine to direct vegetation trends over time, with climate and disturbance playing prominent roles. To help decipher their relative importance during Euro-American times, we employed a unique approach whereby tree species/genera were partitioned into temperature, shade tolerance, and pyrogenicity classes and applied to comparative tree-census data. Our megadata analysis of 190 datasets determined the relative impacts of climate vs. altered disturbance regimes for various biomes across the eastern United States. As the Euro-American period (ca. 1500 to today) spans two major climatic periods, from Little Ice Age to the Anthropocene, vegetation changes consistent with warming were expected. In most cases, however, European disturbance overrode regional climate, but in a manner that varied across the Tension Zone Line. To the north, intensive and expansive early European disturbance resulted in the ubiquitous loss of conifers and large increases of Acer, Populus, and Quercus in northern hardwoods, whereas to the south, these disturbances perpetuated the dominance of Quercus in central hardwoods. Acer increases and associated mesophication in Quercus-Pinus systems were delayed until mid 20th century fire suppression. This led to significant warm to cool shifts in temperature class where cool-adapted Acer saccharum increased and temperature neutral changes where warm-adapted Acer rubrum increased. In both cases, these shifts were attributed to fire suppression rather than climate change. Because mesophication is ongoing, eastern US forests formed during the catastrophic disturbance era followed by fire suppression will remain in climate disequilibrium into the foreseeable future. Overall, the results of our study suggest that altered disturbance regimes rather than climate had the greatest influence on vegetation composition and dynamics in the eastern United States over multiple centuries. Land-use change often trumped or negated the impacts of warming climate, and needs greater recognition in climate change discussions, scenarios, and model interpretations.

/pdf/is-climate-an-important-driver-of-post-european-vegetation-4a2hvyj602.pdf

Is climate an important driver of post‐European vegetation change in the Eastern United States?

World-wide, some biomes are densifying, or increasing in dense woody vegetation, and shifting to alternative stable states. We quantified densification and state transition between forests ecosystems in historical (ca. 1815‐1850) and current (2004‐2008) surveys of the Missouri Ozark Highlands, a 5-million ha landscape in southern Missouri, USA. To estimate density of historical forests, we used the Morisita plotless density estimator and applied corrections for surveyor bias. For contemporary forests, we used known densities at plots to predict continuous densities with random forests, an ensemble regression tree method. We also calculated basal area and percent stocking to determine changes in wood volume. Historical forests had densities ranging from about 75 to 320 trees/ ha. Current forest densities were about 2.3 times greater and more uniform, at about 300‐400 trees/ ha (DBH ‡ 12.7 cm). Not all forests have increased in basal area and percent stocking because trees in contemporary forests are smaller in diameter than historical forests. Although oak species still are dominant (as defined by ‡10% composition), oak dominance is being replaced by many fire-sensitive species, of which only eastern redcedar and maples have become dominant. Densification and community changes in functional traits have produced a state transition from open oak forest ecosystems to predominantly closed eastern broadleaf forests in the Missouri Ozarks. This shift is not at equilibrium, as fire-sensitive species are continuing to increase and turnover in long-lived oaks is slow.

https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/jrnl/2014/nrs_2014_hanberry_001.pdf

Densification and state transition across the Missouri Ozarks landscape

Oaks were the historical foundation genus of the east-central United States

Forest community dynamics in the Illinois Ozark Hills was studied over a 300 y period that included three sequential disturbance regimes. Presettlement forest community patterns were reconstructed using witness tree data taken from the 1806–7 General Land Office survey records. Species, stem diameter and distance from the corner were obtained for a total sample of 958 witness trees on 479 section and quarter-section corners. Data were separated by site type based on 13 aspect and slope positions, but later were combined into six Ecological Land Type Phases (ELTPs) using cluster analysis and percent similarity. At the end of the presettlement and Disturbance Phase 1 (ca. 1810), Quercus and Carya species dominated forest communities (combined Importance Value, IV100  =  68–76) on the Southwest Slope, South Slope, Ridgetop and North Slope ELTPs. The combined IVs for all early successional species ranged from 74–81 while IVs of late successional fire-intolerant mesophytic species ranged from 19–26. U...

Thomas G McArdle

Papers

Forest Dynamics Across Three Century-Length Disturbance Regimes in the Illinois Ozark Hills