Showing papers by "Thomas L. Saaty published in 1985"

The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pair-wise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy. These judgments are then translated to numbers. The AHP includes procedures and principles used to synthesize the many judgments to derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for alternative solutions. It is useful to note that the numbers thus obtained are ratio scale estimates and correspond to so-called hard numbers. Problem solving is a process of setting priorities in steps. One step decides on the most important elements of a problem, another on how best to repair, replace, test, and evaluate the elements, and another on how to implement the solution and measure performance.

Decision making for leaders

Abstract: Decision Making for Leaders is an introduction to Saaty's analytic hierarchy process (AHP) aimed at an audience of leaders in business, industry, and government. As such, the book can be viewed as a popularized version of Saaty's more technical works on AHP (for example, see [1]).

CHAPTER 2 – Systems

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the rationale for systems thinking, causal explanation on how reductionism works, past and present systems theory, and the conceptual value of systems theory to provide an overview of systems. Despite the philosophical appeal of looking at a problem from many points of view, the solution of any problem will finally follow a certain plan with a defined line of thinking. As a result, it is difficult to argue against reductionism without offering a better alternative. Pragmatic systems research synthesizes reductionism and expansionism by first conceptualizing problems in terms of their systemic characteristics and then identifying those components that have the greatest influence in the system. In other words, the systems approach must draw on innate abilities to decompose complex phenomena into component elements while simultaneously conceptualizing and identifying relations of varying intensity among the elements of the system. Still systems theory has so far been criticized for its lack of a viable methodology. Despite its shortcomings, systems theory has provided a conceptual foundation on which to construct a new methodology that allows describing a system and its problems in terms of an interconnected hierarchy. It also offers a means to set a priority order and measure the intensity of interaction of the components of the hierarchy describing the structure of a system. This methodology considers the human element of complex social and organizational problems and accommodates multiple conflicting goals and objectives held by people whose interests are affected by the performance of the system.

Axiomatization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This paper contains a first attempt to axiomatize the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The set of axioms corresponding to hierarchic structures are a special case of axioms dealing with the general case of systems with feedback which are under study. The axioms given here are followed by theorems, several of which have already appeared in the literature.

CHAPTER 6 – Strategic Planning

Abstract: Publisher Summary Strategic, adaptive planning is a process of learning and growth. It is an ongoing event kept in the foreground to be seen, studied, used as a guide, and revised as change is noted in the environment. Strategic planning is the process of projecting the likely or logical future—the composite scenario—and of idealizing desired futures. It is the process of knowing how to attain these futures, using this knowledge to steer the logical future toward a more desired one, and then repeating the operation. The backward process of idealization inspires creative thinking. It affords people an opportunity to expand their awareness of what states of the system they would like to see take place and with what priorities. Using the backward process, planners identify both opportunities and obstacles and eventually select effective policies to facilitate reaching the desired future. This chapter demonstrates the way in which the systems approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be used to plan for likely and desired futures.

Systems Characteristics and The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This chapter describes the properties of systems in correlation with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) highlighting it as a systems method for dealing with systems problems. The AHP, with its extensions to systems with feedback, captures the major properties embodied in systems theory and is its hand maiden. The chapter highlights a few characteristics of systems that are important in hierarchic or network representation to obtain the most faithful and realistic interpretation and solution of problems. The chapter discusses systems in terms of four major attributes, namely, purpose, function, flow, and structure. The purposes of a system are linked to the environment in which the system is embedded. A problem which occurs in a given system can be regarded either as improper functioning in the system itself or as a flaw in its interactions with the environment. The interface of the system with the environment is separate from either the system or the environment. Solving one problem can lead to disturbing other factors in the system or in its interface with the environment.

New light on the theorem of perron

Abstract: We prove that the principal eigenvector of a positive matrix represents the relative dominance of its rows or ranking of alternatives in a decision represented by the rows of a pairwise comparison matrix.

Benefit-Cost Analysis and Resource Allocation

Abstract: This chapter highlights the highly relevant applicability of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to project evaluation and resource allocation. Benefit–cost analysis supplies the underlying principles to guide resource allocation, while the AHP is used to structure the allocation problem and measure the factors consequential to the decision. To measure the relative importance of the components and benefits and costs, sampling of public opinion, employment of expert judgment, and comparison with the consequences of past projects of this kind can be resorted to. Resources, in a general sense, are the means to bring about a change in the state of a system or to direct it toward a desired end. They are usually allocated in different amounts to different projects or proposals according to the perceived worthiness of the alternatives. There are three different types of resource allocation problems: (1) selection of one project to be undertaken with the total resources available, (2) selection of a mix of projects to which available resources will be allocated in equal or unequal portions, and (3) allocation of resources to existing projects according to their remaining (marginal) potential. The application of AHP to structure benefit–cost problems results in two extensions of traditional methods: (1) intangible, noneconomic factors that have so far not been effectively integrated in decision making can be quantified and (2) explicit and informed tradeoffs can be made among multiple selection criteria, including multiple performance objectives and output activities.

CHAPTER 1 – Complexity

Abstract: Publisher Summary Complexity has been defined as a large number of things that interact in a nonsimple way (Simon, 1965). Some would argue that quantity is not a requirement for complexity. This concept lies at the heart of general systems theory. Finite, partly emotional, and partly logical minds that are windows for seeing the world have complexities of their own. These internal complexities must themselves be understood because it is believed that construction of reality is relative to physical and behavioral makeup. This chapter explores the nature of complexity itself and some of the current problems facing society. Systems ideas have been applied in a diversity of real life problems ranging from food distribution to medicine. Still the practical value of systems thinking in such areas has been questioned and criticized.

Current Theories of Planning

Abstract: Publisher Summary Planning can best be envisioned as a continuous, and sometimes irregular, cycle of thought and action that can help to design more durable and effective systems. It is not a discrete activity with a clear beginning and end. Systems thinking provides the philosophical outlook and methodological tools that help planners manage complexity rather than merely submit to it and hope that things will somehow work themselves out. This chapter focuses on problems that call for intervention and planning. Planning has been studied from many perspectives. It has also been thought about in terms of general political, social, economic, and cultural environments in which it takes place, the particular system in such environments to which planners direct their attention, and the level of detail needed to produce a plan. The chapter discusses some characteristics of planning. It presents a comparison of three philosophies of planning, namely, formal, incremental, and systemic, according to the way in which they are used to structure problems, to identify and evaluate alternatives, and to implement plans. Systemic planning is a synthesis of formal and incremental planning.