Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/jrnl/2011/nrs_2011_pickett_001.pdf

Urban ecological systems: Scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Contributing Authors: Tarekegn Abeku (Ethiopia), Isabelle Cote (Canada), Mark Dyurgerov (USA), Martin Edwards (UK), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Nicole Estrella (Germany), Donald L. Forbes (Canada), Bernard Francou (France), Andrew Githeko (Kenya), Vivien Gornitz (USA), Wilfried Haeberli (Switzerland), John Hay (New Zealand), Anne Henshaw (USA), Terrence Hughes (Australia), Ana Iglesias (Spain), Georg Kaser (Austria), R. Sari Kovats (UK), Joseph Lam (China), Diana Liverman (UK), Dena P. MacMynowski (USA), Patricia Morellato (Brazil), Jeff T. Price (USA), Robert Muir-Wood (UK), Peter Neofotis (USA), Catherine O’Reilly (USA), Xavier Rodo (Spain), Tim Sparks (UK), Thomas Spencer (UK), David Viner (UK), Marta Vicarelli (Italy), Ellen Wiegandt (Switzerland), Qigang Wu (China), Ma Zhuguo (China)

/pdf/assessment-of-observed-changes-and-responses-in-natural-and-4pllyavkl2.pdf

Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems

Mapping global urban areas using MODIS 500-m data: new methods and datasets based on 'urban ecoregions'.

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomena—from individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes—have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal- and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

/pdf/toward-a-synthetic-understanding-of-the-role-of-phenology-in-vo77e7zdad.pdf

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

In order to examine the impacts of both large-scale and small-scale climate changes (urban climate effect) on the development of plants, long-term observations of four spring phenophases from ten central European regions (Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt, Munich, Prague, Vienna, Zurich, Basle and Chur) were analysed. The objective of this study was to identify and compare the differences in the starting dates of the pre-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) and forsythia (Forsythia sp.), and of the full-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) and apple (Malus domestica), in urban and rural areas. The results indicate that, despite regional differences, in nearly all cases the species studied flower earlier in urbanised areas than in the corresponding rural areas. The forcing in urban areas was about 4 days for the pre-spring phenophases and about 2 days for the full-spring phenophases. The analysis of trends for the period from 1951 to 1995 showed tendencies towards an earlier flowering in all regions, but only 22% were significant at the 5% level. The trends for the period from 1980 to 1995 were much stronger for all regions and phases: the pre-spring phenophases on average became earlier by 13.9 days/decade in the urban areas and 15.3 days/decade in the rural areas, while the full-spring phenophases were 6.7 days earlier/decade in the urban areas and 9.1 days/decade earlier in the rural areas. Thus rural areas showed a higher trend towards an earlier flowering than did urban areas for the period from 1980 to 1995. However, these trends, especially for the pre-spring phenophases, turned out to be extremely variable.

Thomas Roetzer

Papers

Phenology in central Europe--differences and trends of spring phenophases in urban and rural areas.