We develop a cointegrating nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in which short- and long-run nonlinearities are introduced via positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variables. We demonstrate that the model is estimable by OLS and that reliable long-run inference can be achieved by bounds-testing regardless of the integration orders of the variables. Furthermore, we derive asymmetric dynamic multipliers that graphically depict the traverse between the short- and the long-run. The salient features of the model are illustrated using the example of the nonlinear unemployment-output relationship in the US, Canada and Japan.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2344046_code1643826.pdf?abstractid=1807745&mirid=5

Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework

Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data

Since the early 2000s, scholars from a variety of disciplines have used the concept of financialization to describe a host of structural changes in the advanced political economies. Studies of financialization interrogate how an increasingly autonomous realm of global finance has altered the underlying logics of the industrial economy and the inner workings of democratic society. This paper evaluates the insights of more than a decade of scholarship on financialization. Three approaches will be discussed: the emergence of a new regime of accumulation, the ascendency of the shareholder value orientation and the financialization of everyday life. It is argued that a deeper understanding of financialization will lead to a better understanding of organized interests, the politics of the welfare state, and processes of institutional change.

Making sense of financialization

The Price of Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers Our Future. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 414 pages, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2012.I LOVE THESE GUYS''(Joseph Stiglitz) is an insanely great economist,'' so writes Paul R. Krugman, who should know. These two like to write books for the populace at large on the topic of macroeconomics. Krugman also likes to spout offon Sunday news shows like ''Meet the Press,'' and on all the cable news programs. You can see Krugman arguing with Bill O'Reilly on Meet the Press. From YouTube: ''Don't call me a liar, pal, that's what you do all the time,'' says O'Reilly; ''This is not your show, so you can't cut offmy mic,'' says Krugman. Judging by their expressions, I was glad Tim Russert (6- 3-) was there in the studio at the time to protect Krugman (5- 7-) (O'Reilly stands 6- 4-). Conservative pundits dislike both economists, but pretty much leave Stiglitz alone.Krugman makes it a point to stay out of government affairs. Stiglitz does just the opposite, and he sometimes gets burned. Stiglitz was part of Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers and was Chief Economist for the World Bank. After much criticism of the way the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted lending to developing countries, he was pretty much fired from the World Bank. Comparing the two, you would have to say that Stiglitz is more the bleeding heart, while Krugman says that what he dislikes most is the dishonesty he sees in political-economic discourse. Both are champions of the common man.Since Stiglitz can make the very valid claim for being ''an insanely great economist,'' most everything he says in his books should be taken seriously. There are some real gems in this book. I especially like the perspective he lends to some of the more peculiar things that happened before, during, and after the financial crisis. People hear about these things in the news from some announcer who makes them sound like just more news-bites, but they are, after all, unprecedented (and largely absurd). Take ''robo-signing'' for instance (page 198).WHAT GOES FOR NEWSRobo-signing was part of what happened during the foreclosure process after the massive numbers of defaults of subprime mortgages. Big banks intentionally did not follow mandated law. Apart from ignoring debtors' rights, an ensuing mess followed. Robo-signing was nothing less than a blatant attempt at rewriting property law, and resulted in lying to the courts about the state of each property's title, literally hundreds of times. No bank officer was charged with a crime. By contrast, the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s led to 829 individual convictions and 650 prison sentences. Nowadays the big banks just pay fines as part of settlements where they admit no guilt, and it's just part of doing business.Take algorithmic or ''flash'' trading in the stock exchanges (page 164). These are buys and sales made in nanoseconds on the basis of extracting information from the patterns of prices and trades. Nothing like real information gathered through market research on an industry, or on a firm in a certain industry, backs up these trades. But traders swear that ''price discovery'' is happening this way, and that all this backs up the efficient markets model. So on May 6, 2010 stock prices plummeted to a point where the Dow Jones temporarily lost 10% of its value. There are reasons to believe that these trades ''make markets not just more volatile but also less 'informative' '' (page 166). Still, the talk on the street is all about efficient markets (echoing Alan Greenspan's failures at the Federal Reserve).Take failed privatizations. When electric power in California was liberalized and Enron manipulated prices and public power to its advantage, this was a story about the company's accounting practices, not about privatizing something that had no business being privatized. …

The Price of Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers Our Future

Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age

In his widely discussed book ‘Fault Lines’ (2010), Raghuram Rajan argues that many low and middle income consumers have reduced their saving and increased debt since income inequality started to soar in the United States in the early 1980s. This has temporarily kept private consumption and employment high, but it also contributed to the creation of a credit bubble. This surge in household indebtedness turned out to be unsustainable in the financial crisis starting in 2007. Although Rajan and others emphasize the role of government in promoting credit to those households with declining relative (permanent) incomes, other strands of the literature have focused more explicitly on the implications of rising inequality for aggregate demand and households’ demand for credit. These differences in emphasis may explain why the literature on the inequality-crisis nexus appears somewhat disparate, even though the various strands are far from mutually exclusive but rather complement each other. We therefore place the ‘Rajan hypothesis’ in the context of competing theories of consumption, and survey the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on household behaviour. We conclude that the empirical evidence calls for a renaissance of the relative income hypothesis of consumption.

/pdf/did-inequality-cause-the-u-s-financial-crisis-3qb04trmp4.pdf

Did inequality cause the u.s. financial crisis

This article is centred around the notions of shareholder value orientation and financialisation. Shareholder value orientation is reflected by a high dividend payout ratio applied by firms and the reluctance of firms to finance physical investment via new equity issues. Financialisation is the more general development towards an increased importance of the financial sector of the economy relative to the non-financial sector. In this article, a synthetic, stock-flow consistent model is developed that attempts to encompass some important recent works on the effects of financialisation. This includes contributions from the fields of mainstream information economics and post-Keynesian economics. We conduct simulations reflecting increased shareholder value orientation, and show that the results are consistent with important stylised facts. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

https://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_06_2007.pdf

A synthetic, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model of "financialisation".

A number of important contributions to the political economy literature have argued that changes in the financial sector have been amongst the main reflections, or even the driving forces, of recent transformations of capitalism in the rich countries. This hypothesis has been referred to as ‘financialization’. This article argues that the interdisciplinary literature can be enriched if the macroeconomic dimension of financialization is more explicitly taken into account. In particular, important macroeconomic constraints regarding the determination of profits, in the face of a decreasing importance of physical investment and an increased importance of financial operations, are often not explicitly considered. The author compares his macroeconomic approach with contributions from different strands in the existing literature, including empirical analyses of new patterns of profit generation, the ‘varieties of capitalism’ approach, the British ‘social accounting’ literature, and the French ‘regulati...

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/105894/1/imk-wp_2008-01.pdf

The political economy debate on 'financialization' - a macroeconomic perspective

A number of important contributions to the political economy literature have argued that changes in the financial sector have been amongst the main reflections, or even the driving forces, of recent transformations of capitalism in the rich countries. This hypothesis has been referred to as 'financialisation'. We argue in this article that the interdisciplinary literature could be enriched if the macroeconomic dimension of financialisation was more explicitly taken into account. In particular, important macroeconomic constraints regarding the determination of profits, in the face of a decreasing importance of physical investment and an increased importance of financial operations, are often not explicitly considered. We compare our macroeconomic approach with contributions from different strands in the existing literature, including empirical analyses of new patterns of profit generation, the 'varieties of capitalism' approach, the British 'social accounting' literature, and the French 'regulationist' literature. Our theoretical framework is illustrated by means of an empirical comparison of the effects of financialisation in the USA and in Germany.

The political economy debate on ‘financialisation’ – a macroeconomic perspective

A Post-Keynesian growth model is developed, in which financial variables are explicitly taken into account. Variants of an investment function are estimated econometrically, applying the ARDL (auto-regressive distributed lag)-based approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3), pp. 289–326). The econometric results are discussed with respect to a remarkable phenomenon that can be observed for some important OECD countries since the early 1980s: accumulation has generally been declining while profit shares and rates have shown a tendency to rise. We concentrate on one potential explanation of this phenomenon, which is particularly relevant for the USA and relies on a high propensity to consume out of capital income.

/pdf/reconsidering-the-investment-profit-nexus-in-finance-led-28i7m4mrsx.pdf

Till van Treeck

Papers

Did inequality cause the u.s. financial crisis

A synthetic, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model of "financialisation".

The political economy debate on 'financialization' - a macroeconomic perspective

The political economy debate on ‘financialisation’ – a macroeconomic perspective

Reconsidering the Investment-Profit Nexus in Finance-Led Economies: an ARDL-Based Approach