Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian approximation and ensemble learning techniques are two most widely-used UQ methods in the literature. In this regard, researchers have proposed different UQ methods and examined their performance in a variety of applications such as computer vision (e.g., self-driving cars and object detection), image processing (e.g., image restoration), medical image analysis (e.g., medical image classification and segmentation), natural language processing (e.g., text classification, social media texts and recidivism risk-scoring), bioinformatics, etc. This study reviews recent advances in UQ methods used in deep learning. Moreover, we also investigate the application of these methods in reinforcement learning (RL). Then, we outline a few important applications of UQ methods. Finally, we briefly highlight the fundamental research challenges faced by UQ methods and discuss the future research directions in this field.

A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges

http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/nbnfi-fe2021090645179.pdf

Machine learning algorithms typically assume independent and identically distributed samples in training and at test time. Much work has shown that high-performing ML classifiers can degrade significantly and provide overly-confident, wrong classification predictions, particularly for out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Conditional language models (CLMs) are predominantly trained to classify the next token in an output sequence, and may suffer even worse degradation on OOD inputs as the prediction is done auto-regressively over many steps. Furthermore, the space of potential low-quality outputs is larger as arbitrary text can be generated and it is important to know when to trust the generated output. We present a highly accurate and lightweight OOD detection method for CLMs, and demonstrate its effectiveness on abstractive summarization and translation. We also show how our method can be used under the common and realistic setting of distribution shift for selective generation (analogous to selective prediction for classification) of high-quality outputs, while automatically abstaining from low-quality ones, enabling safer deployment of generative language models.

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models

We explore the utility of information contained within a dropout based Bayesian neural network (BNN) for the task of detecting out of distribution (OOD) data. We first show how previous attempts to leverage the randomized embeddings induced by the intermediate layers of a dropout BNN can fail due to the distance metric used. We introduce an alternative approach to measuring embedding uncertainty, and demonstrate how incorporating embedding uncertainty improves OOD data identification across three tasks: image classification, language classification, and malware detection.

Out of Distribution Data Detection Using Dropout Bayesian Neural Networks

The recently proposed Neural Local Lossless Compression (NeLLoC) [27], which is based on a local autoregressive model, has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization performance in the image compression task. In addition to the encouragement of OOD generalization, the local model also allows parallel inference in the decoding stage. In this paper, we propose two parallelization schemes for local autoregressive models. We discuss the practicali-ties of implementing the schemes and provide experimental evidence of signiﬁcant gains in compression runtime compared to the previous, non-parallel implementation. The implementations of the proposed parallelized compression methods are available at https://github.com/zmtomorrow/ParallelNeLLoC . ,

Parallel Neural Local Lossless Compression

We detect out-of-training-distribution sentences in Neural Machine Translation using the Bayesian Deep Learning equivalent of Transformer models. For this we develop a new measure of uncertainty designed specifically for long sequences of discrete random variables—i.e. words in the output sentence. Our new measure of uncertainty solves a major intractability in the naive application of existing approaches on long sentences. We use our new measure on a Transformer model trained with dropout approximate inference. On the task of German-English translation using WMT13 and Europarl, we show that with dropout uncertainty our measure is able to identify when Dutch source sentences, sentences which use the same word types as German, are given to the model instead of German.

/pdf/wat-zei-je-detecting-out-of-distribution-translations-with-4bwk8t734a.pdf

Wat zei je? Detecting Out-of-Distribution Translations with Variational Transformers

We consider the problem of iterative machine teaching, where a teacher sequentially provides examples based on the status of a learner under a discrete input space (i.e., a pool of finite samples), which greatly limits the teacher's capability. To address this issue, we study iterative teaching under a continuous input space where the input example (i.e., image) can be either generated by solving an optimization problem or drawn directly from a continuous distribution. Specifically, we propose data hallucination teaching (DHT) where the teacher can generate input data intelligently based on labels, the learner's status and the target concept. We study a number of challenging teaching setups (e.g., linear/neural learners in omniscient and black-box settings). Extensive empirical results verify the effectiveness of DHT.

Iterative Teaching by Data Hallucination

Density-based Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has recently been shown unreliable for the task of detecting OOD images. Various density ratio based approaches achieve good empirical performance, however methods typically lack a principled probabilistic modelling explanation. In this work, we propose to unify density ratio based methods under a novel framework that builds energy-based models and employs differing base distributions. Under our framework, the density ratio can be viewed as the unnormalized density of an implicit semantic distribution. Further, we propose to directly estimate the density ratio of a data sample through class ratio estimation. We report competitive results on OOD image problems in comparison with recent work that alternatively requires training of deep generative models for the task. Our approach enables a simple and yet effective path towards solving the OOD detection problem.

Out-of-Distribution Detection with Class Ratio Estimation

Latent variable models like the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) are commonly used to learn representations of images. However, for downstream tasks like semantic classiﬁcation, the representations learned by VAE are less competitive than other non-latent variable models. This has led to some speculations that latent variable models may be fundamentally unsuitable for representation learning. In this work, we study what properties are required for good representations and how different VAE structure choices could affect the learned properties. We show that by using a decoder that prefers to learn local features, the remaining global features can be well captured by the latent, which signiﬁcantly improves performance of a downstream classiﬁcation task. We further apply the proposed model to semi-supervised learning tasks and demonstrate improvements in data efﬁciency.

Improving VAE-based Representation Learning

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) were originally motivated (Kingma&Welling, 2014) as probabilistic generative models in which one performs approximate Bayesian inference. The proposal of $\beta$-VAEs (Higgins et al., 2017) breaks this interpretation and generalizes VAEs to application domains beyond generative modeling (e.g., representation learning, clustering, or lossy data compression) by introducing an objective function that allows practitioners to trade off between the information content ("bit rate") of the latent representation and the distortion of reconstructed data (Alemi et al., 2018). In this paper, we reconsider this rate/distortion trade-off in the context of hierarchical VAEs, i.e., VAEs with more than one layer of latent variables. We identify a general class of inference models for which one can split the rate into contributions from each layer, which can then be tuned independently. We derive theoretical bounds on the performance of downstream tasks as functions of the individual layers' rates and verify our theoretical findings in large-scale experiments. Our results provide guidance for practitioners on which region in rate-space to target for a given application.

Tim Z. Xiao

Papers

Wat zei je? Detecting Out-of-Distribution Translations with Variational Transformers

Iterative Teaching by Data Hallucination

Out-of-Distribution Detection with Class Ratio Estimation

Improving VAE-based Representation Learning

Trading Information between Latents in Hierarchical Variational Autoencoders