世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

The East Asian Miracle--Economic Growth and Public Policy/World Bank(1993)

Climate change threatens the objective of eradicating poverty. Poor people and poor countries are already vulnerable to all types of climate-related shocks—natural disasters that destroy assets and livelihoods; water borne diseases and pests that becomemore prevalent during heat waves, floods, or droughts; crop failure from reduced rainfall; andspikes in food prices that follow extreme weather events. Such shocks can erase decades ofhard work and leave people with irreversible human and physical losses. Changes in climateconditions caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will worsen these shocks and slow down poverty reduction. The good news is that, at least until 2030, “good development” can prevent most of these impacts. By “good development,” we mean development that is rapid, inclusive, and climate informed; includes strong social safety nets and universal health coverage; and iscomplemented with targeted adaptation interventions such as heat-tolerant crops and early warning systems. Absent such good development, many people will still be living in or closeto extreme poverty in 2030, with few resources to cope with climate shocks and adapt to longterm trends, and climate change could increase extreme poverty by more than 100 million people by 2030. In the longer run, beyond 2030, our ability to adapt to unabated climate change is limited. To keep the longer-term impacts on poverty in check, immediate emissions-reduction policiesare needed that bring emissions to zero by the end of the 21st century. These policies neednot threaten short-term progress on poverty reduction—provided they are well designed andinternational support is available for poor countries.Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be unprecedented global achievements.But neither can be attained without the other: they need to be designed and implementedas an integrated strategy. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. The book provides guidance on how to design climate policies so they contribute to poverty reduction, and on how to design poverty reduction policies so they contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building.

Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

The goal of national security is the defense of the state from external threats. The focus of human security, by contrast, is the protection of individuals. Secure states do not automatically mean secure peoples. Protecting citizens from foreign attack is certainly a necessary condition for the security of individuals, but it is not a sufficient one. Indeed, during the past century, far more people have been killed by their own governments than by armies from abroad. The term human security is now widely used to describe the complex of interrelated threats associated with international war, civil war, genocide, and the displacement of populations. Human security means, at minimum, freedom from violence, and from the fear of violence. Human security and national security should be – and often are – mutually reinforcing. But this is not always the case. Human security can be threatened both by weak states which allow warlords and militias to flourish, and by strong states which themselves commit abuses such as torture and summary execution. Everyone who uses the term human security agrees that its primary goal is the protection of individuals. But which threats individuals should be protected from remains contested. The " broad " concept of human security, first outlined in the 1994 Human Development Report from the United Nations Development Programme, argues that human security rests on two pillars: freedom from want and freedom from fear. The broader view of human security includes food security, adequate shelter, security from poverty, and sometimes from " threats to human dignity. " Its proponents rightly argue that hunger, disease, and natural disasters kill far more people than war, genocide, and terrorism combined. And these threats are often interrelated. The " narrow " concept of human security focuses on freedom from violence. This includes criminal as well as political violence, for the boundary between the two is not always easy to draw. Is there any practical difference between a criminal gang which grows narcotics and guards its crop with guns, and insurgents who grow drugs to finance their rebellion? Just where does the boundary lie between an off-duty soldier who sexually assaults someone, and a deliberate military campaign of rape, which can be a war crime? Th e s e t wo a p p r o a ch e s to human security are both people-centered, and are complementary rather than contradictory. But because the " broad …

About human security

This report lays out three steps for a smooth transition to a zero-carbon future and provides data, examples and policy advice to help countries makes the shift. Overview Getting to zero net emissions and stabilizing climate change starts with planning for the long-term future and not stopping at short-term goals. It means getting prices right as part of a broad policy package that can trigger changes in both investments and behaviors, and it requires smoothing the transition for those most affected. A new World Bank report walks policymakers through those three steps with data, examples and policy advice to help put countries on a path to decarbonizing their development in a smooth and orderly way. The solutions exist, and they are affordable – if governments take action today, the report says.

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Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future

Latin America and the Caribbean does not have the infrastructure it needs, or deserves, given its income. Many argue that the solution is to spend more; by contrast, this report has one main message: Latin America can dramatically narrow its infrastructure service gap by spending efficiently on the right things.

Rethinking Infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean: Spending Better to Achieve More

Unraveling the effects of payments for ecosystem services on motivations for collective action

Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channels that determine household consumption and through which households may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets, productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whether and how these channels are affected by climate change and climate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability, and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable to poverty). It reviews the existing literature and offers three major conclusions. First, climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Second, climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns are carefully taken into account in their design and (ii) they are accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies. Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but it creates greater needs and more urgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact that climate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; the urgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunity given to us before climate impacts are likely to substantially increase.

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Ulf Narloch

Papers

Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future

Rethinking Infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean: Spending Better to Achieve More

Unraveling the effects of payments for ecosystem services on motivations for collective action

Climate change and poverty -- an analytical framework

What role for cooperation in conservation tenders? Paying farmer groups in the High Andes.