Exposure to ambient fine particular matter (PM2.5) was responsible for 3.2 million premature deaths in 2010 and is among the top ten leading risk factors for early death. Surface transportation is a significant global source of PM2.5 emissions and a target for new actions. The objective of this study is to estimate the global and national health burden of ambient PM2.5 exposure attributable to surface transportation emissions. This share of health burden is called the transportation attributable fraction (TAF), and is assumed equal to the proportional decrease in modeled ambient particulate matter concentrations when surface transportation emissions are removed. National population-weighted TAFs for 190 countries are modeled for 2005 using the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model. Changes in annual average concentration of PM2.5 at 0.5???0.67 degree horizontal resolution are based on a global emissions inventory and removal of all surface transportation emissions. Global population-weighted average TAF was 8.5 percent or 1.75 ?g m?3 in 2005. Approximately 242 000 annual premature deaths were attributable to surface transportation emissions, dominated by China, the United States, the European Union and India. This application of TAF allows future Global Burden of Disease studies to estimate the sector-specific burden of ambient PM2.5 exposure. Additional research is needed to capture intraurban variations in emissions and exposure, and to broaden the range of health effects considered, including the effects of other pollutants.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104009/pdf

Estimating source-attributable health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter exposure: global premature mortality from surface transportation emissions in 2005

. Detailed aerosol chemical predictions by a comprehensive model system (i.e. PMCAMx, WRF, GEOS-CHEM), along with airborne and ground-based observations, are presented and analysed over a wide domain covering the Aegean Archipelago. The studied period is 10 successive days in 2011, characterized by strong northern winds, which is the most frequently prevailing synoptic pattern during summer. The submicron aerosol load in the lower troposphere above the archipelago is homogenously enriched in sulfate (average modelled and measured submicron sulfate of 5.5 and 5.8 μg m−3, respectively), followed by organics (2.3 and 4.4 μg m−3) and ammonium (1.5 and 1.7 μg m−3). Aerosol concentrations smoothly decline aloft, reaching lower values (

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Aerosol chemistry above an extended archipelago of the eastern Mediterranean basin during strong northern winds

In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of ‘defeat devices’ designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NOx emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km , over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km . This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NOx emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Environmental Protection Agency’s (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NOx emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1 200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall.

Public Health Impacts of Excess NO[subscript x] Emissions from Volkswagen Diesel Passenger Vehicles in Germany

Trace gases concentrations in the boundary layer (BL) and the free troposphere are studied in the Eastern Mediterranean based on an updated nested-grid application of GEOS-CHEM global model and airborne observations that were collected over the Greek territory during the AEGEAN GAME airborne field campaign in September 2011. Modelled concentrations are studied against measurements along the flight tracks. Moreover, the spatial distribution of the pollutants over the study domain is examined in relation to the prevailing wind regime. The role of the long-range transport of pollution is investigated particularly through the northern and eastern boundaries due to the prevailing NE circulation. It is found that the model captures adequately carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) levels within the troposphere. CO and O3 concentrations over the Aegean Sea can exceed the background levels attributed either to transport downwind the local sources or to long range transport particularly from the northern and eastern part of the domain under the strong NE Etesian winds.

V. Amiridis

Papers

Air Pollution in Eastern Mediterranean: Nested-Grid GEOS-CHEM Model Results and Airborne Observations