SUMMARY Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non-linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the Earth in a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event. Reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible. Key word: Earthquake prediction.

Earthquake prediction: a critical review

ELF and VLF radio waves

Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

The phase (P) and amplitude (A) anomalies in subionospheric LF signal (40 kHz) along the path Japan–Kamchatka of 2300 km have been studied for the data observed by means of a digital OminiPAL receiver for 2 years. The empirical model of background P and A daily variations for quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions in the absence of seismic activity is developed. We pay special attention to the P and A features during large magnetic storms. A sensitivity threshold of LF signal to deforming influence of the geomagnetic and seismic factors is defined. Two cases of bay-like behavior of LF phase and amplitude in nighttime are described as a clear earthquake precursor of LF signal. We have found from the statistical study that LF signal effect is observed only for earthquakes with M⩾5.5 and we discuss the possible mechanisms of the effect.

V.F. Marenko

Papers

Study of seismic influence on the ionosphere by super long-wave probing of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide