Over the last few years, considerable attention has been given to the possible climatic effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The present figure of 340 p.p.m. by volume is 15 to 20 percent above pre-industrial levels and a concentration of double the assumed 1860 value of 295 p.p.m. has been projected by the second half of the next century due to continued burning of fossil fuels (Laurmann and Rotty, 1983). Climate modelling simulations suggest that such a doubling will cause a global mean surface air temperature rise of about 3.0 ± 1.5K (National Research Council, 1982), with at least a two-to three-fold amplification in high latitudes. Hansen et al. (1981) estimate that the post-1890s CO2 increase should already have caused a 0.5°C warming, but allowing for oceanic heat capacity and mixing effects this would be reduced to 0.2°C. Further modifications of climatic regimes will occur through changes in precipitation and circulation characteristics, although these are less well known (Schlesinger, 1983).

Possible CO2-Induced Warming Effects on the Cryosphere

The meaning of glaciosphere in the environmental “atmosphere— ocean—land‐glaciation”; system is analyzed. The need to include observations of glacier dynamics into environmental monitoring, and several global glaciology problems outside the scope of this science alone are discussed.

The future of the environment and global problems in glaciology

According to the data of glaciologists, a global warming of the climate may occur in the next 40–50 years. A change in the glaciation of mountains at temperate latitudes in Eurasia, on Arctic islands, in Greenland, and in East and West Antarctica is forecast on this basis. The article is published as a scientific discussion and the conclusions derived are not indisputable. [The paper may be read in conjunction with one by M. I. Budyko et al., “Impending climatic change,”; Soviet Geography September 1979, pp. 395–411.]

V. M. Kotlyakov

Papers

Impending climatic change and the fate of glaciers