The problem of sequential testing of multiple hypotheses is considered, and two candidate sequential test procedures are studied. Both tests are multihypothesis versions of the binary sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), and are referred to as MSPRTs. The first test is motivated by Bayesian optimality arguments, while the second corresponds to a generalized likelihood ratio test. It is shown that both MSPRTs are asymptotically optimal relative not only to the expected sample size but also to any positive moment of the stopping time distribution, when the error probabilities or, more generally, risks associated with incorrect decisions are small. The results are first derived for the discrete-time case of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations and simple hypotheses. They are then extended to general, possibly continuous-time, statistical models that may include correlated and nonhomogeneous observation processes. It also demonstrated that the results can be extended to hypothesis testing problems with nuisance parameters, where the composite hypotheses, due to nuisance parameters, can be reduced to simple ones by using the principle of invariance. These results provide a complete generalization of the results given by Veeravalli and Baum (see ibid., vol.41, p.1994-97, 1995), where it was shown that the quasi-Bayesian MSPRT is asymptotically efficient with respect to the expected sample size for i.i.d. observations.

Multihypothesis sequential probability ratio tests .I. Asymptotic optimality

For pt. I see ibid. vol.45, p.2448-61, 1999. We proved in pt.I that two specific constructions of multihypothesis sequential tests, which we refer to as multihypothesis sequential probability ratio tests (MSPRTs), are asymptotically optimal as the decision risks (or error probabilities) go to zero. The MSPRTs asymptotically minimize not only the expected sample size but also any positive moment of the stopping time distribution, under very general statistical models for the observations. In this paper, based on nonlinear renewal theory we find accurate asymptotic approximations (up to a vanishing term) for the expected sample size that take into account the "overshoot" over the boundaries of decision statistics. The approximations are derived for the scenario where the hypotheses are simple, the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) according to one of the underlying distributions, and the decision risks go to zero. Simulation results for practical examples show that these approximations are fairly accurate not only for large but also for moderate sample sizes. The asymptotic results given here complete the analysis initiated by Baum and Veeravalli (1994), where first-order asymptotics were obtained for the expected sample size under a specific restriction on the Kullback-Leibler distances between the hypotheses.

/pdf/multihypothesis-sequential-probability-ratio-tests-ii-57bs5ioxwm.pdf

Multihypothesis sequential probability ratio tests. II. Accurate asymptotic expansions for the expected sample size

It is known that certain combinations of one‐sided sequential probability ratio tests are asymptotically optimal (relative to the expected sample size) for problems involving a finite number of possible distributions when probabilities of errors tend to zero and observations are independent and identically distributed according to one of the underlying distributions. The objective of this paper is to show that two specific constructions of sequential tests asymptotically minimize not only the expected time of observation but also any positive moment of the stopping time distribution under fairly general conditions for a finite number of simple hypotheses. This result appears to be true for general statistical models which include correlated and non‐homogeneous processes observed either in discrete or continuous time. For statistical problems with nuisance parameters, we consider invariant sequential tests and show that the same result is valid for this case. Finally, we apply general results to the solution of several particular problems such as a multi‐sample slippage problem for correlated Gaussian processes and for statistical models with nuisance parameters.

Asymptotic Optimality of Certain Multihypothesis Sequential Tests: Non‐i.i.d. Case

It is supposed that there is a multichannel sensor system which performs sequential detection of a target. Sequential detection is done by implementing a generalized Wald's sequential probability ratio test, which is based on the maximum-likelihood ratio statistic and allows one to fix the false-alarm rate and the rate of missed detections at specified levels. We present the asymptotic performance of this sequential detection procedure and show that it is asymptotically optimal in the sense of minimizing the expected sample size when the probabilities of erroneous decisions are small. We do not assume that the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). The first-order asymptotic optimality result holds for general statistical models that are not confined to the restrictive i.i.d. assumption. However, for i.i.d. and quasi-i.i.d. cases, where the log-likelihood ratios can be represented in the form of sums of random walks and slowly changing sequences, we obtain much stronger results. Specifically, using the nonlinear renewal theory we are able to obtain both tight expressions for the error probabilities and higher order approximations for the average sample size up to a vanishing term. The performance of the multichannel sequential detection algorithm is illustrated by an example of detection of a deterministic signal in correlated (colored) Gaussian noise. In this example, we provide both the results of theoretical analysis and the results of a Monte Carlo experiment. These results allow us to conclude that the use of the sequential detection algorithm substantially reduces the required resources of the system compared to the best nonsequential algorithm.

Sequential detection of targets in multichannel systems

It is shown that under certain conditions the matrix sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and the combinations of "rejecting" SPRTs minimize all moments of the stopping time distribution in the problem of sequential testing of several simple hypotheses for nonhomogeneous processes when probabilities of errors tend to zero. We consider the general case of observation process with discrete or continuous time parameter and asymmetric (relative to probabilities of errors) classes of tests.

V P Dragalin

Papers

Asymptotic solution of a problem of detecting a signal from k channels