This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

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Prediction, learning, and games

The book is outstanding and admirable in many respects. ... is necessary reading for all kinds of readers from undergraduate students to top authorities in the field. Journal of Symbolic Logic Written by two experts in the field, this is the only comprehensive and unified treatment of the central ideas and their applications of Kolmogorov complexity. The book presents a thorough treatment of the subject with a wide range of illustrative applications. Such applications include the randomness of finite objects or infinite sequences, Martin-Loef tests for randomness, information theory, computational learning theory, the complexity of algorithms, and the thermodynamics of computing. It will be ideal for advanced undergraduate students, graduate students, and researchers in computer science, mathematics, cognitive sciences, philosophy, artificial intelligence, statistics, and physics. The book is self-contained in that it contains the basic requirements from mathematics and computer science. Included are also numerous problem sets, comments, source references, and hints to solutions of problems. New topics in this edition include Omega numbers, KolmogorovLoveland randomness, universal learning, communication complexity, Kolmogorov's random graphs, time-limited universal distribution, Shannon information and others.

An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity and Its Applications

A connection between universal codes and the problems of prediction and statistical estimation is established. A known lower bound for the mean length of universal codes is sharpened and generalized, and optimum universal codes constructed. The bound is defined to give the information in strings relative to the considered class of processes. The earlier derived minimum description length criterion for estimation of parameters, including their number, is given a fundamental information, theoretic justification by showing that its estimators achieve the information in the strings. It is also shown that one cannot do prediction in Gaussian autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes below a bound, which is determined by the information in the data.

Universal coding, information, prediction, and estimation

Describes a sequential universal data compression procedure for binary tree sources that performs the "double mixture." Using a context tree, this method weights in an efficient recursive way the coding distributions corresponding to all bounded memory tree sources, and achieves a desirable coding distribution for tree sources with an unknown model and unknown parameters. Computational and storage complexity of the proposed procedure are both linear in the source sequence length. The authors derive a natural upper bound on the cumulative redundancy of the method for individual sequences. The three terms in this bound can be identified as coding, parameter, and model redundancy, The bound holds for all source sequence lengths, not only for asymptotically large lengths. The analysis that leads to this bound is based on standard techniques and turns out to be extremely simple. The upper bound on the redundancy shows that the proposed context-tree weighting procedure is optimal in the sense that it achieves the Rissanen (1984) lower bound. >

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The context-tree weighting method: basic properties

By taking into account the Fisher information and removing an inherent redundancy in earlier two-part codes, a sharper code length as the stochastic complexity and the associated universal process are derived for a class of parametric processes. The main condition required is that the maximum-likelihood estimates satisfy the central limit theorem. The same code length is also obtained from the so-called maximum-likelihood code.

Fisher information and stochastic complexity

Universal coding theory is surveyed from the viewpoint of the interplay between delay and redundancy. The price for universality turns out to be acceptably small.

V. Trofimov

Papers

The performance of universal encoding