We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

The notion of ‘resilience’ has recently risen to prominence in several disciplines, and has also entered policy discourse. Yet, the meaning and relevance of the concept are far from settled matters. This article develops the idea of resilience and examines its usefulness as an aid to understanding the reaction of regional economies to major recessionary shocks. But in so doing, it is also argued that the notion of resilience can usefully be combined with that of hysteresis in order to more fully capture the possible reactions of regional economies to major recessions. These ideas are then used as the basis for a preliminary empirical analysis of the UK regions.

/pdf/regional-economic-resilience-hysteresis-and-recessionary-2zgu5tudin.pdf

Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks

This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which …nancial development no longer has a positive eect on economic growth. We use dierent empirical approaches to show that there can indeed be "too much" …nance. In particular, our results suggest that …nance starts having a negative eect on output growth when credit to the private sector reaches 100% of GDP. We show that our results are consistent with the "vanishing eect" of …nancial development and that they are not driven by output volatility, banking crises, low institutional quality, or by dierences in bank regulation and supervision.

Too much finance

This book explores whether the world economy is breaking up into regional trading and currency blocs centred on the European Community, Japan and the United States. Frankel uses trade, investment and financial data to assess this issue. He concludes with an analysis of how trends in regional economic integration can be used as building blocks for a stronger multilateral system.

Regional Trading Blocs in the world economic system, reseñado por Antonio Ortiz-Mena L.N.

Although researchers have documented that many financial crises are associated with severe recessions (Graciela Kaminsky and Carmen Reinhart 1999), very little attention has been paid to whether countries recover from such large negative shocks in the sense that output losses are reversed. A few recent papers show persistent output loss from financial crises in a small set of countries. For instance, Cerra and Saxena (2005a) demonstrate that six Asian countries suffered permanent output loss from the Asian crisis, and Cerra and Saxena (2005b) show that only a tiny fraction of the output loss from Sweden's banking crisis in the early 1990s was recuperated. The graphs in Figure 1 illustrate persistent output loss for selected countries following the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the debt crisis of the early 1980s. In addition to financial crises, many countries experience large negative political shocks, which could include violent conflicts such as civil wars, as well as a deterioration in the country's governance. Such political shocks have the potential for significant disruption to economic activ? ity, as illustrated for a few episodes of civil war (Figure 2). This paper systematically documents the behavior of output following financial and political crises in a large set of 190 countries. While the graphs in Figures 1 and 2 are suggestive, our aim is to formally analyze the impact of financial and political shocks on output in a broad set of countries, particularly whether output losses are recovered. Financial shocks comprise currency, banking, and twin financial crises. For political shocks, we examine civil wars, a deterioration in the quality of political governance, and twin political crises comprising both shocks. We choose civil wars rather than interstate conflicts to ensure that the war occurs on the country's own soil. The military theater for some interstate conflicts may not directly encompass all parties to the conflict. In addition, the increase in wartime spending for an international conflict may boost economic activity in some countries. We also examine the economic impact of a deterioration in a country's political governance or institutional quality. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (2001) and Acemoglu et al. (2003) use constraints on the power of the political executive as a measure of institutional quality, and find that it is linked to growth and volatility. Thus, we use this measure to study the shock to political governance. Potential endogeneity of the financial or political crisis is an important issue in estimating the output impact of the crisis. That is, the crisis itself may be a function of a slowdown of economic growth or changes in expectations of future growth. We attempt to address this issue using a few methods that are far from definite, but nonetheless uncover some interesting facts. In particular, we find that the forecasts of growth from an autoregressive model and from consensus surveys are optimistic relative to actual growth occurring during and after a crisis.

/pdf/growth-dynamics-the-myth-of-economic-recovery-2oygm12qh6.pdf

Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery

Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and financial crises are permanent on average, and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining growth and fluctuations within the same framework.

Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery

Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and financial crises are permanent on average and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining growth and fluctuations within the same framework.

/pdf/growth-dynamics-the-myth-of-economic-recovery-3qamp18jos.pdf

Growth Dynamics; The Myth of Economic Recovery

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.

/pdf/alternative-methods-of-estimating-potential-output-and-the-2c7bphqar6.pdf

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all the countries studied.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F30035945.pdf

Valerie Cerra

Papers

Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery

Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery

Growth Dynamics; The Myth of Economic Recovery

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden

Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis