Telecommunications demand forecasting—a review

The current fashionable emphasis on the knowledge-based economy is missing the real significance of the dichotomy between tacit and codified knowledge. A continuing input of tacit knowledge is essential to sustained innovation and growth. Without this, the modern thrust towards codification based on IT can lead to an economy with plenty of processing capacity but no new knowledge to process.

The Knowledge-based Economy: A Sisyphus Model

Reviews past and present research into the role of information as a public good and states that progress in thinking has not kept pace with events that led the New York Times to label the 1980s as “when information accelerated”. Argues that a new perspective on the role of information in the changing extent and pattern of economic growth might be achieved by combining several elements from recent analytical efforts including information as a factor of production, a taxonomy of information, and a broader conceptualization of infrastructure so that it includes institutions and has a focus on competence, both individual and in the learning organization. Warns of a resurgence of Luddism, fuelled by unemployment, in the form of an anti‐change stance which questions whether so much growing inequality is needed to achieve the magical productivity said to give everyone bigger incomes and a better life.

Information economics: research strategies

Recent developments in the area of information and communication technology can prove to be enablers of rural development by bringing advanced telematic services However, it is the way in which network operators, service providers and rural users organize and use technology that contributes to rural development By carefully and systematically selecting a service set, which is both meaningful to rural users and profitable to him/herself, a service provider will establish a successful enterprise and will exploit the investment on network equipment Subsequently, the introduction of advanced telematic services in rural areas is an important problem A scenario based approach for introducing advanced telematic services in rural areas in the European Union is presented with an emphasis to economic viability It is split into a usage and technical scenario The objective of this paper is to present and review important aspects of the aforementioned problem under the light of modern service provision methodologies A case study of a rural area in Greece is described in order to illustrate the methodology It seems that rural areas can benefit from recent advances in technology provided that cost effective network solutions and carefully selected services are offered The penetration of modern technology in urban areas and the general trend towards cost-effective solutions are likely to further accelerate progress in rural areas

Introducing advanced telematic services in rural areas

A simple model for extrapolating customer demand for broadband access services is introduced. The concept of “Equivalent Urgent Download” is proposed as a means for modelling customers' perception of the utility of the bitrate of broadband access services. Some implications for the possible future roadmap of the Australian national broadband network are explored. Sample analysis is provided to illustrate the proposition that investment by nbnTM in higher-speed technology may be impeded by the use of wireless internet access to supplement Fibre to the Node (FTTN) by some Retail Service Providers (RSPs).

Victor Chien

Papers

A framework for forecasting demand for new services and their cross effects on existing services