计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

This book shows how to implement a variety of analytic tools that allow health equity - along different dimensions and in different spheres - to be quantified. Questions that the techniques can help provide answers for include the following: Have gaps in health outcomes between the poor and the better-off grown in specific countries or in the developing world as a whole? Are they larger in one country than in another? Are health sector subsidies more equally distributed in some countries than in others? Is health care utilization equitably distributed in the sense that people in equal need receive similar amounts of health care irrespective of their income? Are health care payments more progressive in one health care financing system than in another? What are catastrophic payments? How can they be measured? How far do health care payments impoverish households? This volume has a simple aim: to provide researchers and analysts with a step-by-step practical guide to the measurement of a variety of aspects of health equity. Each chapter includes worked examples and computer code. The authors hope that these guides, and the easy-to-implement computer routines contained in them, will stimulate yet more analysis in the field of health equity, especially in developing countries. They hope this, in turn, will lead to more comprehensive monitoring of trends in health equity, a better understanding of the causes of these inequities, more extensive evaluation of the impacts of development programs on health equity, and more effective policies and programs to reduce inequities in the health sector.

Analyzing health equity using household survey data : a guide to techniques and their implementation

Sequenced treatment alternatives to relieve depression (STAR * D): rationale and design

The decision to contact a physician and the decision about how often to contact a physician are determined by different decisionmakers. We introduce a negative binomial distributed hurdle model that specifies the two stages of the decisionmaking process as different stochastic processes, while at the same time taking care of the discrete nature of the data. Empirical results are based on a cross-section of the West German Socioeconomic Panel. Specification tests reveal that the two stages of the process need to be treated as two distinct processes. This, in turn, implies that ignoring this distinction leads to serious misinterpretation.

An Econometric Model of the Two-Part Decision Process in the Demand for Health

The paper develops and applies a Grossman-style health production model set up in discrete time to explain the impact of environmental pollution on the demand for both health and health care. In order to introduce the environment, our analysis takes changes in environmental conditions to influence the rate at which an individual's stock of health depreciates. While the theoretical part of our paper also contains a discussion of the full model, we restrict our empirical analysis to a submodel which is known as the pure investment model. This is because the other submodel, the pure consumption model, implies a rather implausible case of satiation with respect to the individual's preferences.



Our empirical findings are based on data taken from the German Socio-economic Panel. The stock of health capital and environmental pollution are treated as latent variables and estimated using a Linear Covariance Structures model. The quality of the environment turns out to be an important determinant of health capital. From the point of view of health economics, improvements in environmental conditions can be interpreted as preventive measures. In terms of prevention, public policies designed to protect the environment also yield significant health effects. As regards health care demand the influence is not clearcut, i.e., one cannot necessarily expect a reduction in resource use.

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Health, Health Care, and the Environment : Econometric Evidence from German Micro Data

It is the purpose of this study to forecast the future development of total expenditures of sickness funds in Germany under the assumption that present institutions remain unchanged. Previous approaches using present age-specific expenditure data are systematically flawed. In contrast, we use regression analysis to isolate the factors responsible for the expenditure increase in the time span 1970-95, viz. demographic ageing, increasing income and a time trend, which is interpreted as the result of medical progress. A projection of the estimated equation into the future yields an increase of the contribution rate to more than 23 per cent in the year 2040.

Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt : eine Regressionsanalyse

For empirical analysis and policy-oriented recommendations, the precise measurement of individual health or well-being is essential. The difficulty is that the answer may depend on individual reporting behaviour. Moreover, if an individual’s health perception varies with certain attitudes of the respondent, reporting heterogeneity may lead to index or cut-point shifts of the health distribution, causing estimation problems. An index shift is a parallel shift in the thresholds of the underlying distribution of health categories. In contrast, a cut-point shift means that the relative position of the thresholds changes, implying different response behaviour. Our paper aims to detect how socioeconomic determinants and health experiences influence the individual valuation of health. We analyse the reporting behaviour of individuals on their self-assessed health status, a five-point categorical variable. Using German panel data, we control for observed heterogeneity in the categorical health variable as well as unobserved individual heterogeneity in the panel estimation. In the empirical analysis, we find strong evidence for cut-point shifts. Our estimation results show different impacts of socioeconomic and health-related variables on the five categories of self-assessed health. Moreover, the answering behaviour varies between female and male respondents, pointing to gender-specific perception and assessment of health. Hence, in case of reporting heterogeneity, using self-assessed measures in empirical studies may be misleading and the information needs to be handled with care.

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I feel good! Gender differences and reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health

For empirical analysis and policy-oriented recommendation, the precise measurement of individual health or well-being is essential. The problem with variables based on questionnaires such as self-assessed health is that the answer may depend on individual reporting behaviour. Moreover, if individual‟s health perception varies with certain attitudes of the respondent reporting heterogenei-ty may lead to index or cut-point shifts of the health distribution, causing estimation problems. We analyse the reporting behaviour of individuals on their self-assessed health status, a five-point categorical variable. We explore observed heterogeneity in categorical variables and include unob-served individual heterogeneity using German panel data. Estimation results show different im-pacts of socioeconomic and health related variables on the five subscales of self-assessed health. Moreover, the answering behaviour varies between female and male respondents, pointing to gen-der specific perception and assessment of diseases. Reporting behaviour on self-assessed health questions in surveys is problematic due to a possible heterogeneity. Hence, in case of reporting heterogeneity, using self-assessed measures in empirical studies may be misleading or at least ambiguous.

Volker Ulrich

Papers

An Econometric Model of the Two-Part Decision Process in the Demand for Health

Health, Health Care, and the Environment : Econometric Evidence from German Micro Data

Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt : eine Regressionsanalyse

I feel good! Gender differences and reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health

I feel good! Gender differences and reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health