Context Despite decades of accumulated observational evidence, the balance of risks and benefits for hormone use in healthy postmenopausal women remains uncertain Objective To assess the major health benefits and risks of the most commonly used combined hormone preparation in the United States Design Estrogen plus progestin component of the Women's Health Initiative, a randomized controlled primary prevention trial (planned duration, 85 years) in which 16608 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years with an intact uterus at baseline were recruited by 40 US clinical centers in 1993-1998 Interventions Participants received conjugated equine estrogens, 0625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 25 mg/d, in 1 tablet (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102) Main outcomes measures The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) (nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD death), with invasive breast cancer as the primary adverse outcome A global index summarizing the balance of risks and benefits included the 2 primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), endometrial cancer, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death due to other causes Results On May 31, 2002, after a mean of 52 years of follow-up, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the trial of estrogen plus progestin vs placebo because the test statistic for invasive breast cancer exceeded the stopping boundary for this adverse effect and the global index statistic supported risks exceeding benefits This report includes data on the major clinical outcomes through April 30, 2002 Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (nominal 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were as follows: CHD, 129 (102-163) with 286 cases; breast cancer, 126 (100-159) with 290 cases; stroke, 141 (107-185) with 212 cases; PE, 213 (139-325) with 101 cases; colorectal cancer, 063 (043-092) with 112 cases; endometrial cancer, 083 (047-147) with 47 cases; hip fracture, 066 (045-098) with 106 cases; and death due to other causes, 092 (074-114) with 331 cases Corresponding HRs (nominal 95% CIs) for composite outcomes were 122 (109-136) for total cardiovascular disease (arterial and venous disease), 103 (090-117) for total cancer, 076 (069-085) for combined fractures, 098 (082-118) for total mortality, and 115 (103-128) for the global index Absolute excess risks per 10 000 person-years attributable to estrogen plus progestin were 7 more CHD events, 8 more strokes, 8 more PEs, and 8 more invasive breast cancers, while absolute risk reductions per 10 000 person-years were 6 fewer colorectal cancers and 5 fewer hip fractures The absolute excess risk of events included in the global index was 19 per 10 000 person-years Conclusions Overall health risks exceeded benefits from use of combined estrogen plus progestin for an average 52-year follow-up among healthy postmenopausal US women All-cause mortality was not affected during the trial The risk-benefit profile found in this trial is not consistent with the requirements for a viable intervention for primary prevention of chronic diseases, and the results indicate that this regimen should not be initiated or continued for primary prevention of CHD

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Risks and benefits of estrogen plus progestin in healthy postmenopausal women: Principal results from the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

Author(s): Anderson, Garnet L; Limacher, Marian; Assaf, Annlouise R; Bassford, Tamsen; Beresford, Shirley AA; Black, Henry; Bonds, Denise; Brunner, Robert; Brzyski, Robert; Caan, Bette; Chlebowski, Rowan; Curb, David; Gass, Margery; Hays, Jennifer; Heiss, Gerardo; Hendrix, Susan; Howard, Barbara V; Hsia, Judith; Hubbell, Allan; Jackson, Rebecca; Johnson, Karen C; Judd, Howard; Kotchen, Jane Morley; Kuller, Lewis; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Lane, Dorothy; Langer, Robert D; Lasser, Norman; Lewis, Cora E; Manson, JoAnn; Margolis, Karen; Ockene, Judith; O'Sullivan, Mary Jo; Phillips, Lawrence; Prentice, Ross L; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Robbins, John; Rossouw, Jacques E; Sarto, Gloria; Stefanick, Marcia L; Van Horn, Linda; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Wallace, Robert; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Women's Health Initiative Steering Committee | Abstract: Despite decades of use and considerable research, the role of estrogen alone in preventing chronic diseases in postmenopausal women remains uncertain.To assess the effects on major disease incidence rates of the most commonly used postmenopausal hormone therapy in the United States.A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled disease prevention trial (the estrogen-alone component of the Women's Health Initiative [WHI]) conducted in 40 US clinical centers beginning in 1993. Enrolled were 10 739 postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 years, with prior hysterectomy, including 23% of minority race/ethnicity.Women were randomly assigned to receive either 0.625 mg/d of conjugated equine estrogen (CEE) or placebo.The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence (nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death). Invasive breast cancer incidence was the primary safety outcome. A global index of risks and benefits, including these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and deaths from other causes, was used for summarizing overall effects.In February 2004, after reviewing data through November 30, 2003, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) decided to end the intervention phase of the trial early. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for CEE vs placebo for the major clinical outcomes available through February 29, 2004 (average follow-up 6.8 years), were: CHD, 0.91 (0.75-1.12) with 376 cases; breast cancer, 0.77 (0.59-1.01) with 218 cases; stroke, 1.39 (1.10-1.77) with 276 cases; PE, 1.34 (0.87-2.06) with 85 cases; colorectal cancer, 1.08 (0.75-1.55) with 119 cases; and hip fracture, 0.61 (0.41-0.91) with 102 cases. Corresponding results for composite outcomes were: total cardiovascular disease, 1.12 (1.01-1.24); total cancer, 0.93 (0.81-1.07); total fractures, 0.70 (0.63-0.79); total mortality, 1.04 (0.88-1.22), and the global index, 1.01 (0.91-1.12). For the outcomes significantly affected by CEE, there was an absolute excess risk of 12 additional strokes per 10 000 person-years and an absolute risk reduction of 6 fewer hip fractures per 10 000 person-years. The estimated excess risk for all monitored events in the global index was a nonsignificant 2 events per 10 000 person-years.The use of CEE increases the risk of stroke, decreases the risk of hip fracture, and does not affect CHD incidence in postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy over an average of 6.8 years. A possible reduction in breast cancer risk requires further investigation. The burden of incident disease events was equivalent in the CEE and placebo groups, indicating no overall benefit. Thus, CEE should not be recommended for chronic disease prevention in postmenopausal women.

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Effects of conjugated equine estrogen in postmenopausal women with hysterectomy: the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

Design of the Women's Health Initiative clinical trial and observational study

▪Purpose:To critically review the risks and benefits of hormone therapy for asymptomatic postmenopausal women who are considering long-term hormone therapy to prevent disease or to prolong...

Hormone Therapy To Prevent Disease and Prolong Life in Postmenopausal Women

The criteria required for an effective screening strategy for osteoporosis are largely met in Caucasian women. The disease is common and readily diagnosed by the measurement of bone mineral with single- or dual-energy absorptiometry. Such measurements have high specificity but lower sensitivity, so that the value of the technique is greater for those identified as being at higher risk. Against this background there is little evidence that osteoporosis can usefully be tackled by a public health policy to influence risk factors such as smoking, exercise and nutrition. This suggests that it is appropriate to consider targetting of treatment with agents affecting bone metabolism to susceptible individuals. Since the main benefits of the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) are probably on cardiovascular morbidity, the major role for selective screening is to direct non-HRT interventions. An appropriate time to consider screening and intervention is at the menopause, but screening at later ages is also worthy of consideration. Since the cost of screening is low and that of bone-active drugs is high, the selective use of screening techniques will improve the cost-benefit ratio of intervention.

Assessment of fracture risk and its application to screening for postmenopausal osteoporosis: synopsis of a WHO report. WHO Study Group.

To quantify the effect of estrogen replacement therapy on breast cancer risk, we combined dose-response slopes of the relative risk of breast cancer against the duration of estrogen use across 16 studies. Using this summary dose-response slope, we calculated the proportional increase in risk of breast cancer for each year of estrogen use. For women who experienced any type of menopause, risk did not appear to increase until after at least 5 years of estrogen use. After 15 years of estrogen use, we found a 30% increase in the risk of breast cancer (relative risk, 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 1.6). The increase in risk was largely due to results of studies that included premenopausal women or women using estradiol (with or without progestin), studies for which the estimated relative risk was 2.2 (CI, 1.4 to 3.4) after 15 years. Among women with a family history of breast cancer, those who had ever used estrogen replacement had a significantly higher risk (3.4; CI, 2.0 to 6.0) than those who had not (1.5; CI, 1.2 to 1.7). (JAMA. 1991;265:1985-1990)

W.D. Flanders

Papers

A Meta-analysis of the Effect of Estrogen Replacement Therapy on the Risk of Breast Cancer

91146870 A meta-analysis of the effect of estrogen replacement therapy on the risk of breast cancer