This study predicts the burden of incident osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in the United States, by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and fracture type, from 2005 to 2025. Total fractures were >2 million, costing nearly $17 billion in 2005. Men account for >25% of the burden. Rapid growth in the disease burden is projected among nonwhite populations.

Introduction: The aging of the U.S. population will likely lead to greater prevalence of osteoporosis. Policy makers require precise projections of the disease burden by demographic subgroups and skeletal sites to effectively target osteoporosis intervention and treatment programs.

Materials and Methods: A state transition Markov decision model was used to estimate total incident fractures and costs by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and skeletal site for the U.S. population ≥50 years of age for 2005–2025.

Results: More than 2 million incident fractures at a cost of $17 billion are predicted for 2005. Total costs including prevalent fractures are more than $19 billion. Men account for 29% of fractures and 25% of costs. Total incident fractures by skeletal site were vertebral (27%), wrist (19%), hip (14%), pelvic (7%), and other (33%). Total costs by fracture type were vertebral (6%), hip (72%), wrist (3%), pelvic (5%), and other (14%). By 2025, annual fractures and costs are projected to rise by almost 50%. The most rapid growth is estimated for people 65–74 years of age, with an increase >87%. An increase of nearly 175% is projected for Hispanic and other subpopulations.

Conclusions: Osteoporosis prevention, treatment, and education efforts should address all skeletal sites, not just hip and vertebral, and appropriate attention is warranted for men and diverse race/ethnicity subgroups.

Incidence and economic burden of osteoporosis-related fractures in the United States, 2005-2025.

Assessment of fracture risk and its application to screening for postmenopausal osteoporos

The criteria required for an effective screening strategy for osteoporosis are largely met in Caucasian women. The disease is common and readily diagnosed by the measurement of bone mineral with single- or dual-energy absorptiometry. Such measurements have high specificity but lower sensitivity, so that the value of the technique is greater for those identified as being at higher risk. Against this background there is little evidence that osteoporosis can usefully be tackled by a public health policy to influence risk factors such as smoking, exercise and nutrition. This suggests that it is appropriate to consider targetting of treatment with agents affecting bone metabolism to susceptible individuals. Since the main benefits of the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) are probably on cardiovascular morbidity, the major role for selective screening is to direct non-HRT interventions. An appropriate time to consider screening and intervention is at the menopause, but screening at later ages is also worthy of consideration. Since the cost of screening is low and that of bone-active drugs is high, the selective use of screening techniques will improve the cost-benefit ratio of intervention.

Assessment of fracture risk and its application to screening for postmenopausal osteoporosis: synopsis of a WHO report. WHO Study Group.

The worldwide problem of osteoporosis: insights afforded by epidemiology.

Osteoporotic fractures are a significant public health problem, resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality. Previous estimates of the economic burden of osteoporosis, however, have not fully accounted for the costs associated with treatment of nonhip fractures, minority populations, or men. Accordingly, the 1995 total direct medical expenditures for the treatment of osteoporotic fractures were estimated for all persons aged 45 years or older in the United States by age group, sex, race, type of fracture, and site of service (inpatient hospital, nursing home, and outpatient). Osteoporosis attribution probabilities were used to estimate the proportion of health service utilization and expenditures for fractures that resulted from osteoporosis. Health care expenditures attributable to osteoporotic fractures in 1995 were estimated at $13.8 billion, of which $10.3 billion (75.1%) was for the treatment of white women, $2.5 billion (18.4%) for white men, $0.7 billion (5.3%) for nonwhite women, and $0.2 billion (1.3%) for nonwhite men. Although the majority of U.S. health care expenditures for the treatment of osteoporotic fractures were for white women, one-fourth of the total was borne by other population subgroups. By site-of-service, $8.6 billion (62.4%) was spent for inpatient care, $3.9 billion (28.2%) for nursing home care, and $1.3 billion (9.4%) for outpatient services. Importantly, fractures at skeletal sites other than the hip accounted for 36.9% of the total attributed health care expenditures nationally. The contribution of nonhip fractures to the substantial morbidity and expenditures associated with osteoporosis has been underestimated by previous researchers.

W.E. Wright

Papers

The direct medical costs of osteoporosis for American women aged 45 and older, 1986.