Showing papers by "Ward Edwards published in 1973"

Flat Maxima in Linear Optimization Models

Abstract: : Expected value functions as functions of decisions and decision strategies are flat around their maxima. This so called flat maximum phenomenon has been discovered in sensitivity analyses in virtually all decision theoretic paradigms. But until now most of the research on flat maxima explored more or less general examples and limiting considerations. Two basic questions remained unanswered: what are the mathematical reasons for the restricted shape of the evaluation functions; and can these restrictions be interpreted as flatness in a psychological sense. While the second question calls for psychological experimentation, the first question can be answered with mathematical tools. The present article shows that the mathematical characteristics of linear optimization models impose severe restrictions on the functions evaluating choice alternatives such as gambles, multi-attributed outcomes, or consumption streams.

Evaluation of Complex Stimuli Using Multi-Attribute Utility Procedures

Abstract: : Three procedures for constructing additive multi-attribute utility theory, (MAUT) models were tested for their differential validity: a probabilistic procedure, a simple direct rating procedure, and a modified direct rating procedure. Validation criteria were ratings and simple choices. Procedures were evaluated after an intensive training session in which subjects learned to adopt an evaluation strategy with which they felt most comfortable and which best reflected their preferences. The results of a correlational analysis indicated that MAUT can improve upon the decision maker's own unaided intuition. The probabilistic procedure was found to be the superior method for predicting simple choices between stimuli.