From January 30-February 6, 2011, New South Wales was affected by an exceptional heat wave, which broke numerous records. Near real-time Emergency Department (ED) and ambulance surveillance allowed rapid detection of an increase in the number of heat-related ED visits and ambulance calls during this period. The purpose of this study was to quantify the excess heat-related and all-cause ED visits and ambulance calls, and excess all-cause mortality, associated with the heat wave. ED and ambulance data were obtained from surveillance and administrative databases, while mortality data were obtained from the state death registry. The observed counts were compared with the average counts from the same period from 2006/07 through 2009/10, and a Poisson regression model was constructed to calculate the number of excess ED visits, ambulance and deaths after adjusting for calendar and lag effects. During the heat wave there were 104 and 236 ED visits for heat effects and dehydration respectively, and 116 ambulance calls for heat exposure. From the regression model, all-cause ED visits increased by 2% (95% CI 1.01-1.03), all-cause ambulance calls increased by 14% (95% CI 1.11-1.16), and all-cause mortality increased by 13% (95% CI 1.06-1.22). Those aged 75 years and older had the highest excess rates of all outcomes. The 2011 heat wave resulted in an increase in the number of ED visits and ambulance calls, especially in older persons, as well as an increase in all-cause mortality. Rapid surveillance systems provide markers of heat wave impacts that have fatal outcomes.

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Emergency department visits, ambulance calls, and mortality associated with an exceptional heat wave in Sydney, Australia, 2011: a time-series analysis

Summary Mass gatherings (MGs) have been associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality from non-communicable diseases, accidents, and terrorist attacks, thus posing complex public health challenges. We assessed the health risks and public health responses to MGs to identify an evidence-based framework for public health interventions. Human stampedes and heat-related illnesses are the leading causes of mortality. Minor traumatic injuries and medical complaints are the main contributors to morbidity and, particularly, the need for onsite medical care. Infrastructure, crowd density and mood, weather, age, and sex determine the risks to health. Many predictive models for deployment of medical resources are proposed, but none have been validated. We identified the risks for mortality and morbidity during MGs, most efficient public health interventions, and need for robust research into health risks for non-communicable diseases during MGs.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(11)70293-6.pdf

Non-communicable health risks during mass gatherings

We have implemented a naive Bayesian classifier which models continuous numerical data using a Gaussian distribution. Several cases of interest in the area of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion prediction are presented which demonstrate that this approach is superior to the implementation of naive Bayesian classifiers in which continuous chemical descriptors are modeled as binary data. We demonstrate that this enhanced performance, upon comparison with other implementations, is independent of the descriptor sets chosen. We also compare the performance of three implementations of naive Bayesian classifiers with other previously described models.

Improved naïve Bayesian modeling of numerical data for absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) property prediction.

To the Editor: Viral gastroenteritis affects millions of people of all ages worldwide, and some seasonality has been observed in outbreak occurrences (1–3). During early 2006 in New South Wales (NSW), a marked increase in outbreaks of gastroenteritis occurred (Figure): 155 outbreaks were reported during the first 5 months compared with 88 outbreaks during 2005. During the first 5 months of 2006, the Enteric Pathogens Laboratory–South Eastern Area Laboratory Services (EPL-SEALS) recorded an increase in norovirus in stool samples, detected by using an enzyme immunoassay (IDEIA Norovirus, DakoCytomation, Cambridgeshire, UK). From January through May 2006, the proportion of samples positive for norovirus increased successively: 0/47 (0%), 1/73 (1.4%), 5/169 (3.0%), 8/106 (7.5%), and 93/413 (22.5%). This trend followed the increasing reports of outbreaks made to the NSW Department of Health (Figure). In May, the rate of norovirus detection (22.5%) was significantly greater than that of any other pathogen (Fisher exact test, p<0.0001), including intestinal parasites, foodborne bacterial pathogens (Salmonella, Shigella, and Camplylobacter), and enteric viruses (rotavirus, adenovirus, and astrovirus).

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Norovirus GII.4 strains and outbreaks, Australia.

Summary Several new viral respiratory tract infectious diseases with epidemic potential that threaten global health security have emerged in the past 15 years. In 2003, WHO issued a worldwide alert for an unknown emerging illness, later named severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV) rapidly spread worldwide, causing more than 8000 cases and 800 deaths in more than 30 countries with a substantial economic impact. Since then, we have witnessed the emergence of several other viral respiratory pathogens including influenza viruses (avian influenza H5N1, H7N9, and H10N8; variant influenza A H3N2 virus), human adenovirus-14, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). In response, various surveillance systems have been developed to monitor the emergence of respiratory-tract infections. These include systems based on identification of syndromes, web-based systems, systems that gather health data from health facilities (such as emergency departments and family doctors), and systems that rely on self-reporting by patients. More effective national, regional, and international surveillance systems are required to enable rapid identification of emerging respiratory epidemics, diseases with epidemic potential, their specific microbial cause, origin, mode of acquisition, and transmission dynamics.

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Surveillance for emerging respiratory viruses

Background
In a climate of concern over bioterrorism threats and emergent diseases, public health authorities are trialling more timely surveillance systems. The 2003 Rugby World Cup (RWC) provided an opportunity to test the viability of a near real-time syndromic surveillance system in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. We describe the development and early results of this largely automated system that used data routinely collected in Emergency Departments (EDs).

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An automated, broad-based, near real-time public health surveillance system using presentations to hospital Emergency Departments in New South Wales, Australia

Wei Xing Zheng

Papers

An automated, broad-based, near real-time public health surveillance system using presentations to hospital Emergency Departments in New South Wales, Australia